Asia Economic History Seminars 2026-27

Autumn Term 2026-27: CKK 213 (unless otherwise stated)

Time: 12-1pm (unless otherwise stated)

6 October

This session will be online. To join, please follow this link: https://lse.zoom.us/j/85862719422

• Gregg Huff, Oxford
• Globalisation and Growth in Southeast Asia since 1870
• Abstract: This seminar identifies two phases of rapid Southeast Asian economic growth and argues that both were linked to new opportunities in the global economy. During the first phase, stretching from the 1870s to 1929, Southeast Asia grew through vent-for-surplus trade in resource-intensive primary commodities. Just four of these — rice, rubber, tin and sugar — accounted for most exports. In a second phase, underway by the early 1970s, a shift in factor endowments from surplus land to abundant labour attracted foreign multinationals in search of cheap labour and manufacturing for export, mainly to advanced economies. In this phase, Southeast Asia vented surplus labour, either embodied in goods it exported or through migration. During both phases of globalization-induced growth, trade served as its engine but in neither did this lead to technical change becoming the chief source of expansion. Even for high-income Singapore, low TFP growth is a chronic problem and, throughout the region, large rural populations and extensive slums in the main cities point to an incomplete model of development.

17 November

• Alexander Nagar, Cambridge
• Bengali Agricultural Output Estimates, 1750-1939
• Abstract: The economic history of Bengal is a statistical black hole. To shine light on it, I estimate agricultural output in Bengal for the colonial period using the indirect, demand-side, method. This requires data on nominal wages, nominal prices, and population levels. I bring together data on the first two and extract trends by means of "hedonic" regressions. I construct population estimates for the pre-census period by comparing salt consumption figures with contemporary estimates. The results contradict a large number of popular views in Bengali economic history. Grain wages for agricultural labourers were – under the most pessimistic assumptions – at minimum constant over the long run. Since the price of other consumer goods fell relative to food grains, this implies real wages grew, particularly for the marginal hour of work (though this does not appear to have increased labour supply): There was no prosperous pre-colonial Bengal. Bengal’s population approximately tripled over the period 1800-1940, and, as acreage only increased by around 50 per cent, yields doubled rather than stagnating or declining as commonly asserted. I compare my estimates to the official statistics and find that the latter seriously understated output and output growth, confirming the suspicions of one minority strand of the literature. I combine my yield estimates with tax and rent data and show that land taxation took a much smaller share of landlord incomes at the time of the Permanent Settlement than often thought. I also confirm the minority view that the burden of rent for most tenants collapsed over the colonial period thanks to the popularity of cash rent perpetual leases interacting with inflation: the zamindars were not the villains many have claimed they were. That said, while agricultural growth was much greater than hitherto thought by most, it still was not particularly fast and largely just kept up with population growth.

8 December

• Eik Leong Swee, University of Melbourne
• tbc
• Abstract: