Predictive Analytic Tools and Value-based Health Care

February 2021


Health care financial sustainability challenges and increased demand for health care services by ageing populations in extensive parts of the OECD require a complete re-think of the health care delivery model and a re-focus of that model towards a holistic Value-Based Healthcare model, involving public-private partnerships and multi-stakeholder participation and involvement. This could prove to be the answer to the challenge at hand, particularly if certain solutions are co-created in a collaborative fashion by enabling stakeholders.

The fundamental aim of this project is to offer insights on the use of predictive analytic tools and modelling techniques that may be helpful in re-shaping policy, and calibrating risk mitigation strategies and clinical practice. The focus is on irritable bowel disease (IBD) and this is hardly coincidental. When assessing the lost utility values and the associated costs over the disease’s lifetime, it emerges that Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), easily compare to malignant disorders and associated health care resource use. The introduction of biologic agents over the past 15 years has led to significant advancements in the management of IBD, however, the long-term prognosis remains challenging for physicians, who often reside to bowel resections as the last resort for pain and discomfort control.

Virtual Advisory Board

Predictive modelling can be a useful tool for clinicians and payers in forecasting health outcomes and can represent a cornerstone of precision medicine.

In June 2020, LSE convened a virtual advisory board meeting in order to:

1) provide an overview and seek expert input on research conducted by LSE on the use of predictive tools for identifying higher risk IBD patients;

2) collect feedback from key opinion leaders on the challenges and opportunities in implementing predictive tools as part of non-interventional research or clinical practice and later in prospective risk sharing agreements (PRSA) with a focus on IBD;

3) collect feedback from key opinion leaders and payers on 'Proof of Concepts' and research strategies when incorporating predictive tools for “high-risk” patient identification and management; and

4) facilitate discussion on opportunities for future implementation of predictive tools in IBD.

The meeting was attended by KOL and former payers from Isreal, the USA, Canada, and the UK with expertise in the field of IBD. 

Client: Takeda

Authors: Aurelio Miracolo, Mackenzie Mills & Panos Kanavos


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