Nonlinear Analysis and Prediction Statistics from Timeseries and Ensemble-forecast Realizations


The main objectives of the research were:

1) To reach out to industry through a series of in-house educational workshops in selected industrial organisations and thereby to transfer knowledge and create awareness of the potential benefits of recent results and methods in the area of end-to-end estimation of operational weather risk.

2) To provide a hardware and software platform to enable interested organisations to use new methods of end-to-end estimation to forecast and feedback to the science base the impact of weather upon their businesses or public sector concerns. The intention was to deepen and update their engagement with the science base. 

The main achievements of the project were firstly, a significant increase in the awareness of British companies exposed to weather risk, of the value of current methods and meteorological information available to them; and secondly, a major increase in academic understanding of the limitations of today's probabilistic forecast information for decision support.

Funded by

Grant reference

Grant value (to LSE)

Project duration
1 November 2005 - 30 April 2008 

Read the NAPSTER brochure (pdf)