IceDice – Forecasting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

As climate change accelerates, predicting sea level rise becomes critical. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) alone could raise global sea levels by up to five metres, but its contribution remains highly uncertain, creating risks for coastal communities, infrastructure, and economies.

IceDice, funded by NERC, is transforming how we model WAIS probabilistically. Running through 2028, the project integrates ice fracture mechanics and ice-ocean interactions into advanced models, while leveraging machine learning and statistical emulation to explore far more scenarios than traditional simulations allow. A key innovation is a targeted sampling algorithm that focuses on the most informative outcomes, particularly extreme sea level rises. This ensures planners and policymakers can evaluate adaptation strategies under plausible futures, balancing risk and resources effectively.

By improving the accuracy and reliability of forecasts, IceDicehelps safeguard communities, supports economically efficient adaptation, and provides actionable tools for coastal resilience planning worldwide.