Beyond disinformation: Toxic positivity as influence operation in the Philippines and Indonesia
Disgraced political figures have not only returned to power. They have done so with overwhelming public support. The electoral victories of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Philippines and Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia are often attributed to disinformation, yet this explanation cannot fully account for the emotional resonance and cultural uptake of their campaigns.
This presentation argues that these political comebacks are better understood through the broader concept of influence operations: strategic interventions that capture attention, mobilise engagement, and steer political behaviour by orchestrating emotions, narratives, and platform-specific interactivity. The analysis draws on comparative fieldwork from the 2022 Philippine and 2024 Indonesian elections, including rally observations, interviews, and systematic monitoring of content across TikTok, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Across both cases, toxic positivity emerges as a central influence operation. In the Philippines, appeals to unity and healing reframed historical abuses as grievances to be set aside. In Indonesia, the gemoy campaign softened Prabowo’s military associations through AI imagery, dance trends, and popular culture aesthetics. These findings carry important implications for future electoral campaigns, suggesting that democratic competition will increasingly hinge not on contesting facts alone, but on shaping the emotional and cultural conditions under which citizens decide what can and cannot be politically questioned.
This presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Ross Tapsell of the Australian National University.
Speaker & chair biographies
Prof. Nicole Curato is Professor of Democratic Governance at the University of Birmingham's School of Government. Her work examines the transformative potential of deliberative democracy in fragile and conflict-affected settings and has published extensively about the prospects of deliberative politics in the Philippines.
Prof. John Sidel is Director of the Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre, and the Sir Patrick Gillam Professor of International and Comparative Politics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).
*Banner photo by Mariia Shalabaieva on Unsplash
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