A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU
Brexit will have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics.
Author
Tim Oliver
LSE IDEAS Associate
The EU, the rest of Europe, allies around the world and the UK itself need to prepare for the wider international implications of such a move. This Strategic Update examines what Brexit means for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security.
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A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU
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A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU
About the author
Tim Oliver is an LSE IDEAS Associate who was previously a Dahrendorf Forum fellow. He is director of research at Brexit Analytics, having spent several years as a lecturer in defence and international affairs at the British Army’s Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. He has also taught at LSE and UCL.
1 David Cameron, ‘The future of the EU and the UK’s relationship with it.’ Speech, London, January 23,2013
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/eu-speech-at-bloomberg
2 David Cameron, ‘The Future of Britain’s Relationship with the EU’, Chatham House, 10 November 2015. https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/future-britains-relationship-european-union . See also Tim Oliver, ‘A Question of National Security’ UK in a Changing Europe, 24 November 2015. http://ukandeu.ac.uk/aquestion-of-national-security/
3 ‘Ed Miliband: ‘Britain "sleepwalking" into EU exit’, BBC News online, 19 November 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20385905
4 For analysis of how other states might respond see Almut Möller and Tim Oliver (eds.), The United Kingdom and the European Union: What would a "Brexit" mean for the EU and other States around the World? Berlin: Deutsche Gesellschaft für auswärtige Politik e.V. Also see EUROPP (2015) ‘Cameron’s letter: European views on the UK’s renegotiation’ LSE European Politics and Policy blog (EUROPP), 10 November.http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/11/10/camerons-letter-european-views-on-the-uks-renegotiation/
5 See Tim Oliver, ‘How the EU responds to a British withdrawal will be determined by five key factors’
LSE Brexit Vote Blog, 3 December 2015. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2015/12/03/europes-potentialresponses-to-a-british-withdrawal-from-the-union-will-be-determined-by-ideas-interests-institutions-theinternational-and-individuals/
6 See also Luis Simón (2015) ‘Britain, the EU and the Future of Europe: A Geostrategic Perspective’ RUSI Journal 160(5): 16–23.
7 Tom Wright, ‘Europe’s Lost Decade’, Survival, Vol. 55, No. 6, November 2013.
8 Tim Oliver, ‘To be or not to be in Europe: is that the question?’ International Affairs, January 2015.
9 Nathaniel Copsey and Tim Haughton, ‘Farewell Britannia? "Issue Capture" and the Politics of Cameron’s
EU Referendum Pledge’, Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol 52, Special Supplement 1, 2014. 74–89
10 Tim Oliver, ‘London bucks the UKIP surge and appears headed in a direction far removed from the rest of the UK’, LSE British Politics and Policy blog, 2 June 2014. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/londonbucks-the-ukip-surge/
11 See Tim Oliver, ‘To be or not to be in Europe: is that the question?’ International Affairs, January 2015.
12 Jose Ignacio Torreblanca and Mark Leonard, ‘The continent-wide rise of Euroscepticism’, ECFR Policy Memo, May 2013. http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR79_EUROSCEPTICISM_BRIEF_AW.pdf
13 For details of how Article 50 would work see Vaughne Miller, ‘In Brief: Leaving the European Union’, Commons Library Standard Note, SN06089, 20 October 2011. http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN06089/in-brief-leaving-the-european-union
and Gostynska et al,The Renegotiation Delusion? Nine Questions about Britain’s EU Future, PISM, May 2013. http://www.pism.pl/files/?id_plik=13535
14 Matthew Kemp, EU Budget 2014–20, House of Commons Library, Briefing Paper 06455, December 2015
15 See Douglas Webber, ‘How likely is it that the European Union will disintegrate? A critical analysis of competing theoretical perspectives.’ European Journal of International Relations, January 2013.
16 Michael Rocard, ‘A French message to Britain: get out of Europe before you wreck it’, The Guardian, 6 June 2014. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/06/french-message-britain-get-outeuropean-union
17 Han Kundanani, ‘Germany as a Geo-Economic Power’, Washington Quarterly, Vol 43, No. 2, Summer 2011.
18 James Kilcourse, ‘Britain outside Europe? The Irish View’, IP Journal, 30 January 2014. https://ip-journal.dgap.org/en/ip-journal/topics/britain-outside-europe-irish-view
19 See Sinan Ulgen (2015) ‘Turkey: Brexit could pave the way for a new EU-Turkey relationship’ EUROPP ‘Views on the UK’s renegotiation: Russia, Ukraine and Turkey’ LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP)
Blog, 14 November. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/11/14/views-on-the-uks-renegotiation-russiaukraine-and-turkey/#Three
20 A wide range of proposals have been put forward along with reports analyzing various options. For one review of options, albeit focused on trade, see Stephen Booth and Christopher Howarth, Trading Places: Is EU membership still the best option for UK trade? (London: Open Europe, 2012). The IEA’s Brexit Prize,awarded 8 April 2014, was for the best plan for a British withdrawal. The winning entry was by Iain Mansfield. http://www.iea.org.uk/Brexit
21 John Bruton and Tim Oliver, ‘Consent of a majority of the rest of the EU will be needed if there is to be anew UK-EU relationship’, LSE British Politics and Policy Blog,
22 See Tim Oliver, ‘How the EU responds to a British withdrawal will be determined by five key factors’
LSE Brexit Vote Blog, 3 December 2015. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2015/12/03/europes-potentialresponses-to-a-british-withdrawal-from-the-union-will-be-determined-by-ideas-interests-institutions-theinternational-and-individuals/
23 PriceWaterHouseCoopers, UK Economic Outlook, July 2014. http://www.pwc.co.uk/the-economy/publications/uk-economic-outlook/
24 Population projections 2010–2060, Eurostat, 8 June 2011. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3–08062011-BP/EN/3–08062011-BP-EN.PDF
25 Nicolai von Ondarza, Strengthening the Core or Splitting Europe? Prospects and Pitfalls of a Strategy of
Differentiated Integration, SWP Research Paper, RP 2, March 2013. The G6 are Germany, France, UK,Italy, Spain, and since 2006, Poland who meet to discuss internal security policy.
26 See Almut Möller and Tim Oliver, The United Kingdom and the European Union: What would a Brexitmean for the EU and other states around the world? DGAP, September 2014. Also see Gregor Irwin
(2015) Brexit: the impact on the UK and the EU, London: Global Counsel. http://www.global-counsel.co.uk/system/files/publications/Global_Counsel_Impact_of_Brexit_June_2015.pdf
27 Population figures calculated from Eurostat figures for 2011: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo_gind&lang=en . Economic figure calculated from Eurostat figures for 2013, GDPat current prices. UK economy is €1,940,659.6 billion of the EU’s €13,086,459.2 billion economy.
http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_gdp_c&lang=en
28 Right Speech, Right time? (London: Open Europe, January 22, 2012): 10 http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Content/Documents/Pdfs/EuropeSpeech.pdf
29 See answer from Baroness Warsi, Harsard, HL Deb, November 14, 2012, c1507. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldhansrd/text/121114–0001.htm#12111438000002; and
30 ‘France ready to "roll out the red carpet" for British exit from EU’, The Telegraph, 23 January 2013. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9820327/France-ready-to-roll-out-the-red-carpet-for-Britishexit-from-EU.html
31 Review of the Balance of Competences Between the United Kingdom and the European Union: The
Single Market. July 2013, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/227069/2901084_SingleMarket_acc.pdf
32 Charles Grant, ‘In defence of Anglo-Saxon capitalism’, CER, 29 September 2008. http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/defence-anglo-saxon-capitalism and Douglas Webber (ed.), New Europe, New Germany, Old Foreign Policy? (Routledge, 2001), p140.
33 Ferdi de Ville and Jan Orbie, ‘The European Commission’s Neoliberal Trade Discourse Since the Crisis: Legitimizing Continuity through Subtle Discursive Change’, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Vol 16 (No. 1), February 2014, pp149–167.
34 Laurence Knight, ‘Eurozone’s long reform wishlist’, BBC News, 26 June 2012. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-18560234
35 Mark Leonard, Why Europe will Run the 21st Century, Fourth Estate, 2005.
36 Raf Sanchez, ‘Britain leads push to convince Washington to back transatlantic free trade deal’, The
Telegraph, 24 September 2014. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10329783/Britain-leadspush-to-convince-Washington-to-back-transatlantic-free-trade-deal.html
37 Julian Borger, ‘EU exit would put US trade deal at risk, Britain warned’, The Guardian, 27 May 2013; and Tim Oliver, ‘The British Problem Facing a Transatlantic Trade Deal’, Huffington Post, 25 October 2013. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tim-oliver/the-british-problem-facin_b_4164712.html
38 See Strengthening Britain’s Voice in the World, London: Chatham House, 2015, https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/strengthening-britain-s-voice-world, accessed Dec. 2015; Nick Kitchen, ‘Investing for Influence: Report of the LSE Diplomacy Commission’ LSE IDEAS, November 2015, http://www.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/influence.aspx, accessed Dec. 2015
39 Ronja Kempin and Jocelyn Mawdsley, ‘The UK, the EU and European Security: a German Perspective’, RUSI Journal, Vol. 158, No. 4, August/September 2013, pp32–36.
40 Jeff Lightfoot and Tim Oliver, ‘A UK-EU Divorce: Bad News for America’, National Interest, 3 December
2013. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/uk-eu-divorce-bad-news-america-9487
41 Barack Obama, Remarks by the President to Parliament in London, United Kingdom, 25 May 2011. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/25/remarks-president-parliament-london-united-kingdom
42 BBC News (2015) ‘Full Transcript of BBC Interview with President Barack Obama’, 24 July. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-33646542
43 For an analysis of Europe’s inability to think coherently see Olivier de France and Nick Witney, ‘Europe’s Strategic Cacophony’, ECFR Policy Brief, April 2013. http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR77_SECURITY_BRIEF_AW.pdf
44 Barry Posen, ‘Pull Back: The case for a less activist foreign policy’. Foreign Affairs, Jan./Feb. 2013.
45 Charles Kupchan, The Geopolitical Implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, Transatlantic Academy, Analysis, June 2014. http://www.transatlanticacademy.org/sites/default/files/publications/Kupchan_TTIPsGeopoliticalImplications_Jun14.pdf and Tim Oliver, ‘Cool the Talk of TTIP as an "Economic NATO"’, Huffington Post, 12 December 2013. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tim-oliver/cool-the-talk-of-ttip-as-_b_4427037.html
46 See the views from Canada, Australia and New Zealand, Singapore, and Japan in Almut Möller and Tim Oliver (eds.), The United Kingdom and the European Union: What would a Brexit mean for the EU and other states around the world? DGAP, September 2014.
47 Jan Techau, ‘Europe torn apart in the Asian century?’ Carnegie Europe, 1 July 2014. http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=56054
48 Sven Biscop, ‘The UK and European Defence: Leading or Leaving?’ International Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 6, November 2012.
49 Bastian Giegerich and William Wallace, ‘Not such a soft power: the external deployment of European forces’, Survival, Vol. 46, No. 2, 2004, pp163–182.
50 Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, The Spectre of a Multipolar Europe. European Council on Foreign Affairs, October 2010. http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR25_SECURITY_UPDATE_AW_SINGLE.pdf
51 Tim Oliver, ‘To be or not to be in Europe: is that the question?’ International Affairs, January 2015.
52 For a good overview of the debate about European disintegration theories see Douglas Webber, ‘How likely is it that the European Union will disintegrate? A critical analysis of competing theoretical perspectives.’ European Journal of International Relations, January 2013.