About

In 2047, Pakistan will mark a century of independence. Pakistan 2047 is a strategic foresight initiative within LSE IDEAS that asks what the country could look like at its centenary — and which choices made between now and then will shape that future.

Pakistan’s path over the coming decades will be defined by forces already in motion: one of the world’s largest and youngest populations, intensifying climate pressure, a contested regional security environment, the structure of its economy, and the resilience of its institutions. None of these has a settled outcome. The purpose of this project is to think rigorously, and in the open, about the range of futures they might produce.

Rather than offer a single prediction, Pakistan 2047 develops four plausible and contrasting scenarios — each a coherent version of Pakistan at its centenary, grounded in evidence, tested against expert judgement, and designed to inform the decisions facing policymakers, institutions and citizens today.

Among the questions we are working through:

• How will a young and rapidly growing population reshape Pakistan’s economy, labour market and society?

• What does climate stress mean for water, food security, migration and livelihoods?

• Which economic structures could put the country on a sustainable footing — and which could entrench fragility?

• How will Pakistan’s regional and geopolitical position evolve?

• What capacity will its institutions need to govern the pressures ahead?

• How might technological change reshape all of the above?

How we Work

Scenario planning

Pakistan 2047 uses scenario planning: a structured method for exploring uncertain, long-range futures. Instead of forecasting a single result, it maps several internally coherent pathways the country could follow, depending on how key uncertainties resolve. The value is not in being right about one future, but in being prepared for many — surfacing risks, opportunities and decision points that a single forecast would miss. It is a discipline well suited to a horizon as distant, and as consequential, as a national centenary.

The panel

The project is guided by a panel deliberately drawn from across disciplines and sectors — spanning economics, security, climate science, demography, technology, governance and history, and bringing together voices from academia, policy, the private sector and civil society. It reaches across both Pakistan and its global diaspora. This breadth is intentional: long-range questions of this kind cannot be answered well from any single vantage point.

A wider network

The panel serves as a core convening group rather than a closed one. Each scenario also draws on specialists commissioned for their particular expertise, so the analysis extends well beyond any fixed set of contributors. The result is a living body of work — open, expanding, and continually informed by new voices.