Assessing risk assessment in cases of domestic abuse
Domestic abuse affects roughly one-third of women worldwide and carries serious consequences for victims, their children, and society at large. This lecture presents findings from three studies examining the risk assessment process which has been used across England since 2009 to help police identify victims at high risk of serious repeat abuse and connect them with protective services.
Drawing on data from approximately 150,000 intimate partner violence cases, the research asks three questions: how well does the risk assessment predict future serious incidents, does the process help reduce them, and what explains officers’ decisions? The findings offer both sobering conclusions and a constructive path forward, with implications for how police and policymakers might think about the design and use of risk assessment tools in domestic abuse cases.
Meet our speaker and chair
Jeff Grogger, the Irving Harris Professor in Urban Policy at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, has authored many scholarly articles focusing on problems of low-income populations. An applied microeconomist, he has worked on issues including crime, education, migration, and various aspects of racial inequality. He is a leading authority on social insurance programs and on US welfare reform.
Stephen Machin is Professor of Economics and Director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. He is a Fellow of the British Academy, has been President of the European Association of Labour Economists, a Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists and was a member of the UK Low Pay Commission from 2007-14. He was Chair of the Economics and Econometrics sub-panel of the 2021 Research Excellence Framework. He has researched extensively in empirical economics and public policy, including labour economics, industrial relations, social mobility, the economics of education and the economics of crime.
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