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Green party entry and conservative backlash: evidence from Germany

Tuesday 14 October 2025

How do voters react to new political actors?

Recent research suggests that radical right party success can provoke electoral backlash. However, our Assistant Professor in European Politics Dr António Valentim and his co-authors, Tom Arend and Fabio Ellger, argue in the British Journal of Political Science that such backlash is not exclusive to the radical right but can emerge whenever new political actors disrupt the status quo. With very distinct policy positions and behaviour, Green parties were early disruptors of post-war party systems in Europe.

Antonio Valentim

Abstract


"Using first-difference and difference-in-differences designs with voting records from Germany, we show that Green party success provoked a conservative backlash. After the Greens entered state parliaments, the Christian Democrats gained support. Using additional evidence from election surveys, we find that Green party success reinforces feelings of animosity among conservatives, mainly driven by disapproval of the Greens’ behaviour. These results highlight a broader pattern of backlash against new disruptive political actors. Our findings are especially relevant as polarisation and party system fragmentation intensify across many established democracies."


Read the full journal article