Quantifying the role of self-declared obstacles to unachieved fertility - proposing a new method
Speaker: Qi Cui (LSE, Department of Methodology)
Time: Wednesday (26/02/2025) from 15:00 to 16:00 (UK time)
Location: CON 1.01 (Connaught House, 1st Floor) and on Zoom
Abstract: The discrepancies between desired and actual fertility rates are one of the key topics in fertility studies. However, early explanatory frameworks either suffer from diminishing applicability due to modern contexts of low fertility or have low predictive power from fertility intentions to outcomes. This paper aims to explore the fertility gap - the difference between desired fertility size and actual fertility outcomes, and how this gap may be bridged by removing perceived barriers to fertility. This research introduces an innovative approach to quantify the impact of removing obstacles that prevent individuals from having a child (or another child) on the total fertility rate (TFR). On one hand, this method offers an alternative perspective on the relationship between the desired number of children and observed fertility outcomes. Unlike conventional analyses that begin with the differences between desired and actual fertility levels, this approach considers that the sum of the fertility gap - defined by the reasons that hinder individuals from having children - and the observed fertility level represents the obstacle-removed TFR. On the other hand, this method provides a cause-deleted analysis for fertility, addressing a gap in formal demographic analysis which has historically focused on mortality research. Although this approach introduces some assumptions, the results demonstrate its practical significance, offering insights into the relative importance of reported obstacles to fertility.
To join our mailing list or enquire about presenting, please contact the organisers, Hampton Gaddy (h.g.gaddy@lse.ac.uk) and Midanna de Almada (m.de-almada@lse.ac.uk)
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