In 2020, Türkiye intervened openly in the leadership elections of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in support of its preferred candidate Ersin Tatar. Türkiye’s involvement in Cyprus’s domestic politics has a long history that predates the 1974 invasion. Since the period of British colonial administration in Cyprus, Turkish governments have sought to influence the Turkish Cypriot Community’s political direction.
However, such intervention largely remained clandestine, operating behind the scenes, through support for the political actors believed to advance Ankara’s agenda. The 2020 elections signalled a decisive shift from this earlier approach as the intervention became more visible and direct. Since then, this involvement has gradually become institutionalised, extending beyond electoral politics into broader political and social domains. Drawing on a novel public opinion survey and in-depth interviews conducted with 70 politicians, chief negotiators, journalists, and academics, the book provides a comprehensive analysis of the Turkish intervention, the Turkish Cypriot Community’s perception of Türkiye’s role in the island and the extent of Turkish Cypriot independent agency.
Meet our speaker and chair
Dr Sinem Arslan is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Centre for Research on Contemporary Greece and Cyprus - Hellenic Observatory. She holds two master’s degrees, from LSE and Boğaziçi University in Istanbul, and completed her PhD at the University of Essex on the transnational dynamics of civil war peace processes. Her areas of expertise include civil wars and comparative peace processes, with a special emphasis on secessionist conflicts and the de facto states that emerge in the aftermath of such conflicts. Using qualitative, quantitative, and GIS mapping techniques, her research investigates the dynamics of political violence and peace processes comparatively. Dr Arslan has taught various modules on civil war dynamics, conflict, and peace processes, as well as on de facto states, and has been involved in numerous peacebuilding and peace education projects in the Middle East and Africa. Her recent research project investigates patron–client relations in de facto states and their implications for peace processes. The study, which combined a population survey of 1,000 respondents with 70 in-depth interviews with high-level politicians, investigates the changing dynamics of Turkish intervention in Northern Cyprus and the extent of Turkish Cypriot independent political agency. The findings, currently being developed into a book manuscript, have informed policy discussions with the major stakeholders in the UN, UK, Cyprus, and Türkiye, and have shaped the policy positions adopted by Türkiye’s opposition parties.
Professor Vassilis Monastiriotis is Director of the LSE Centre for Research on Contemporary Greece and Cyprus - Hellenic Observatory, Professor in Political Economy and Eleftherios Venizelos Chair of Contemporary Greek Studies at the European Institute, LSE.
The Hellenic Observatory (@HO_LSE) is internationally recognised as a leading research centre on contemporary Greece and Cyprus. In 2024, it became the LSE Centre for Research on Contemporary Greece and Cyprus with a strategy to expand its research base within LSE and beyond. The Centre produces world-leading, non-partisan research, critically engaging with key issues and fostering debate among academics, policymakers, and the public. Its work spans academic research, knowledge exchange, and policy impact.
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