EPG Seminar Series

Iasmin Goes (Colorado State University / Central European University)

How do international organizations balance competing mandates, like addressing climate change while promoting economic growth? In recent years, the World Bank has pledged to support climate-friendly development while reducing fossil fuel finance. Yet high-profile instances of continued support for oil and gas projects cast doubt on this pledge. We argue that international organizations use multiple strategies to manage conflicting mandates, including bargaining with key principals, engaging in public advocacy to justify programs, and reforming internal procedures to ensure compliance with new priorities while maintaining traditional objectives. We focus on the latter, examining internal procedural reforms related to project classification and expenditure tracking. Using text analysis and statistical models on all World Bank projects approved between 2001 and 2022, we assess the alignment between project descriptions and the Bank's official classifications by sector or theme. Our results show strong agreement for extractive content, but a sharp divergence for climate projects: the official classifications systematically overstate both the climate content of projects and the scale of climate finance. Our findings illustrate how international organizations can alter internal accounting procedures to symbolically reconcile conflicting demands and satisfy multiple constituencies in the face of competing mandates.

Edmund Downie (Princeton School of Public and International Affairs)

When do cleantech manufacturers support climate ambition? Existing literature on distributive conflict and policy feedback in climate politics expects these firms to lobby for decarbonization policies that expand markets for their products. Fostering cleantech industries, then, can produce policy feedbacks to ratchet up climate ambition. But these literatures have only partly examined when and how these feedbacks actually occur. We enrich these literatures by drawing on innovation and economic geography scholarship to identify an overlooked determinant of feedbacks: the commercial salience of local markets. We explore this factor through four theory-building process-tracing case studies of wind and solar policy in China and Vietnam, based on forty semi-structured interviews and extensive document analysis. Our resulting theoretical framework traces how low levels of local market salience among manufacturers, by fostering "export-first" business models, inhibit policy feedbacks for cleantech deployment. "Export-first" manufacturers have less reason to lobby for local markets or develop the sources of leverage needed to lobby effectively, particularly within "closed" deployment policy subsystems. Manufacturers lacking such leverage can be marginalized in deployment politics unless external shocks like export market disruptions prompt interventions on their behalf. Our findings advance climate politics and policy feedback scholarship by showing how feedbacks between climate ambition and green manufacturing are more limited than acknowledged in current work.

Jonas Fischer (University of Oxford)

Albeit its effectiveness is contested, firms increasingly disclose their carbon emissions and broader environmental performance indicators. Why do firms voluntarily disclose? We extend existing theories that firms self-regulate in response to the threat of regulation by arguing that firms use voluntary disclosures as a form of strategic accommodation. By disclosing information, firms seek to signal to policymakers that stringent regulations are unnecessary. To test our theory, we examine the responses of U.S. public firms to a mandatory disclosure rule proposed by the SEC in 2022. Using a novel directed and focused measure of firm lobbying, we show that firms that lobbied against mandatory disclosure were more likely to voluntarily disclose in the same period. We show that voluntary disclosures constitute a mechanism for firms to exert influence on policymaking, akin to lobbying.

Florentine Koppenborg (Technical University of Munich)

With the world on a "highway to climate hell" (Guterres, 2024) despite decades of negotiations, attention increasingly turns to climate clubs as governance tools to enhance climate ambition and close the mitigation gap under the Paris Agreement. However, a deeper understanding of normative climate clubs' contribution to curbing climate change has been impeded by limited empirical research, particularly regarding their relationship to the UNFCCC (Falkner, Nasiritousi, and Reischl 2022; Koppenborg, 2025). To address this knowledge gap, this paper analyzes 41 normative climate club cases, asking: What role do normative climate clubs play in global climate governance? The paper develops a framework encompassing three dimensions: how they relate to existing climate treaties (Biermann et al., 2009), whether they build momentum for global consensus as so-called 'building blocks' (Stewart et al., 2013), and how they contribute to Paris implementation. Applying this framework to the normative climate club landscape yields three key empirical contributions. First, 95 percent of cases align with Paris Agreement goals, including clubs that previously challenged the Kyoto Protocol. This demonstrates an evolution toward complementarity between climate clubs and multilateral treaties. Second, many normative clubs are launched by COP hosts, with some collaborating with UN High-Level Climate Champions to build momentum under Paris. This reveals that actors shaping multilateral negotiations internally are simultaneously creating external yet complementary mechanisms to mobilize action outside formal negotiation schedules. Third, some clubs actively adapt to the UNFCCC calendar by publishing monitoring reports before COPs (similar to NGO progress reports), scheduling member meetings as COP side events, and collaborating with COP presidencies on aligned initiatives. The paper concludes by identifying future research directions, particularly examining how the UN and international organizations incubate climate clubs that complement the Paris Agreement, and assessing the long-term effectiveness of this evolving club-treaty relationship in accelerating climate action.

Niklas Kramer (Freie Universität Berlin)

Climate mitigation policies often face popular backlash. In this paper, we investigate the drivers of this backlash. Building on policy feedback theory and the literature on opposition to climate policy, we hypothesize that exposure to the costs of new climate policy can activate self-interest, diminishing the willingness to support and pay for similar policies, and potentially even causing a loss of trust in political institution. We test these propositions for the case of the German heating reform, which introduced the first phase-out policy for fossil-fuel heating systems in Germany. The reform sparked heavy countermobilization after a draft bill was leaked by tabloid media in February 2023. In response, the government watered down its ambitions and passed a revised version of the bill. Drawing on survey panel data from Germany, which we collected at different stages of the policy process, we apply a difference-in-difference design to estimate how exposure to the costs of the heating reform affected public attitudes toward climate policy and trust in political institutions. We find that individuals exposed to the costs of the policy scaled back their willingness to pay for further climate policy and became more distrustful of the government, particularly if they had a low capacity to pay.

Annika Schuster (University of Salzburg)

Stringent climate policies are increasingly becoming indispensable for mitigating climate change; yet their political feasibility represents a significant challenge. While past research has substantially advanced our understanding of the electoral backlash against climate policy, little is known about how enacting far-reaching climate and energy transition policies affects individual political attitudes, that for one, are fundamental for political legitimacy and system support, but whose absence constitutes a crucial driver of far-right party support. Thus, this study asks how the introduction of far-reaching energy transition policies affects political trust, external efficacy and satisfaction with democracy. Leveraging British panel data, I empirically analyze the attitudinal backlash following the coal phase-out in the United Kingdom. By employing a series of staggered difference-in-differences models and matching techniques, I examine whether the closure of coal-fired power plants from 2014 to 2024 affected diffuse and specific support for democracy, and how it affected voting behavior. The results have central implications for our understanding of effective government-induced climate action and democratic legitimacy during the green transition.

Edmund J. Malesky (Duke University)

Green industrial policy is gaining momentum globally. While academic research has largely focused on government investments in the energy transition, less attention has been paid to whether and how policy can influence millions of existing firms to adapt their business models to minimize environmental harm. This paper examines how individual firms in a major developing country adopt greener practices—ranging from small steps like reducing paperwork and monitoring energy use to major shifts, such as installing renewable energy systems or producing green products. Using data from the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI), which provides detailed information on the environmental decisions of both foreign and domestic firms in Vietnam, we find significant investment in green activities, albeit with notable variation. We find strong evidence that national and subnational governments as an anchored buyer motivates firms toward adopting greener practices, especially when they expect green firms will be prioritized or given a premium in the procurement process. Firms involved in government procurement are not only more likely to engage in green activities, but their actions are also significantly motivated by the perception that provincial governments prioritize environmental considerations in procurement decisions and are willing to pay a premium for goods and services from green firms. Based on such correlations, we use a border regression discontinuity design to examine the causal effects of green procurement policy across different provinces. Our findings have important implications for the role of governments in serving as an anchor for firm green investments and activities.

Amanda Kennard (Stanford University)

Despite extreme vulnerability to the climate crisis, nearly half of African survey respondents report never having heard of climate change. This knowledge gap undermines adaptation and political accountability. Expansion of high-speed internet may lead to gains in climate knowledge, but these gains are unlikely to be evenly distributed across the population. We combine Afrobarometer survey data with locations of new high-speed internet infrastructure to study how changes in internet affordability shape citizen learning about climate change. Using a difference-in-differences design, we show that exposure to newly active internet infrastructure increases climate knowledge. These gains, however, are concentrated among wealthy, economically-secure respondents. Moreover, knowledge gains are moderated by economic exposure to the climate transition: we find no effects among respondents living in proximity to coal deposits. These results highlight both the promise and limits of digital connectivity for broad-based climate awareness in low-information contexts.

4 December 2025

Performing Decarbonization
Anthony Calacino (University of Oxford)

When do Congressmembers Break the Party Line on Climate Policy? The Significant Impact of Employment in High-Emitting IndustriePeter Wyckoff (LSE)

20 November 2025

Technocratic or Political? The Effect of Partisanship on Drought Responses in France
Rens Chazottes with Nina Lopez-Uroz (EPFL)

Climate Change and Electoral Behaviour: Evidence from Extreme Weather Events in Costa Rica
Alvaro Zuniga-Cordero (University of Namur & World Inequality Lab)

30 October 2025

The Political Economy of Climate Finance: Information, Incentives, and Institutional Delay
Fiona Bare (Princeton University)

Fairness or Familiarity? How Redistribution and Existing Policies Shape Public Acceptance of Carbon Taxation
Oliver Prinzing (University of Lucerne)

16 October 2025

Energy Transitions and Political Transformation: Evidence from the Shale Oil Revolution
Christian Baehr (Princeton University)

Climate Change and the Economic Geography of Political Conflict
Lisa Dellmuth (Stockholm University)

3 April 2025

Green industrial policy in the voting booth: The electoral effects of the Inflation Reduction Act
Aidan Miao (University College London)

Politics of the energy transition: a case study of electric vehicles policy from South Asia
Anum Mustafa (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

20 March 2025

How Politics Percolates Through Science
Dahyun Choi (Princeton University)

Social Discontent and Populist Backlashes in Europe's Green Transition
Mahir Yazar (University of Bergen)

13 March 2025

Political signaling drives China's carbon market, not market signals
Chen Xiang (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

Natural Disasters and the Electability of Women: Evidence from Philippine Mayoral Elections
Holly Jansen (University of California San Diego)

6 March 2025

Greening in Groups: Firm Concentration and Lobbying on Green Industrial Policy
Ryan Pike (Yale University)

Supply Chains and Political Strategies: Analyzing Firm Responses to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Lingbo Zhao (Penn State University)

20 February 2025

Do climate events drive support for climate change policies?
Cèlia Estruch-Garcia (University of Barcelona)

Safety Net or Self Reliance? U.S. Public Opinion on Federal Aid After Natural Disasters
Angie Jo (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Rachael Kha (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

5th December 2024

Climate Change, Political Conflict, and Democratic Resilience
Austin Beacham (Georgia Institue of Technology), Christina J. Schneider (UCSD), and Emilie M. Hafner-Burton (UCSD)

Chasing the Sun: The Political Economy of Solar Industry Investment in the Global South
Ishana Ratan (UC Berkeley)

21st November 2024

Towards an environmental welfare state? Protecting populations against environmental risks and disasters in the age of the climate crisis.
Lydie Cabane (Leiden University) and Anne Laure Beaussier (Sciences Po)

The Role of Social Protection for a Just Transition in Developing and Emerging Economies
Katrin Gasior (Southern African Social Policy Research Insights)

7th November 2024

More than Symbols : The Effect of Symbolic Policies on Climate Policy Support
Théodore Tallent (Sciences Po), Malo Jan (Sciences Po), and Luis Sattelmayer (Sciences Po)

Cost, Risk, and Threat: The Material & Contextual Factors Driving Climate Policy Preferences
Max Bradley (EUI)

24th October 2024

Does Warm Weather Cool Voters Down? How Temperature Fluctuations Impact Voting and Climate Concerns
Maria Cotofan (King's College London) Karly Kuralbayeva (King's College London), and Konstantinos Matakos (King's College London and Harvard)

Measuring Climate Change Salience in Political Manifestos: A Computational Text Analysis Approach
Mary Sanford (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)