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Housing inequality shocks and democratic norms

Principal Investigator: Dr George Melios

Co-Investigator: Professor Georgios Kavetsos

Over the past decade, Greece has become one of Europe's most prominent destinations for so-called "Golden Visa" programmes—schemes that offer residency rights to foreign investors in exchange for property purchases. Since launching in 2013, Greece's programme has attracted billions of euros in foreign investment, providing a welcome boost to government revenues during and after the country's economic crisis.

But what happens to the neighbourhoods where these investments land? And how do local residents feel when homes in their communities are bought by investors who may never live there?

This research project investigates the unintended consequences of investment-based migration policies on Greek society. Specifically, we examine whether the Golden Visa programme has contributed to rising property prices and housing shortages, and whether these changes have fuelled discontent with government and support for populist political movements.

Why does this matter?

Housing affordability has become one of the most pressing concerns for citizens across Europe. In Greece, where household incomes fell sharply during the financial crisis, even modest increases in property prices can push homeownership or rental housing out of reach for ordinary families. When foreign investors purchase properties—sometimes leaving them empty or converting them to short-term holiday rentals—local residents may feel displaced from their own neighbourhoods.

Previous research from the UK, France, and Scandinavia has shown that people who feel "left behind" by rising house prices are more likely to support populist parties. Similar patterns have emerged in Southern European countries with active Golden Visa programmes. Yet we still lack rigorous evidence on exactly how these investment schemes affect local communities and their political attitudes in Greece—one of the countries most affected by such policies.

What will the researchers do?

The research team will build a comprehensive picture of how the Golden Visa programme has reshaped Greek neighbourhoods since 2013. This involves three main activities.

First, we will collect detailed data on property prices and rents across Greek municipalities, drawing on publicly available sources including property listing websites. By comparing areas that received substantial Golden Visa investment with similar areas that did not, we can estimate how much the programme has contributed to housing cost increases.

Second, we will link these housing market changes to voting patterns. Greece has held several national and local elections since 2013, allowing us to track whether areas experiencing Golden Visa-driven price rises also saw shifts toward populist parties—both on the far right and far left.

Third, we will conduct an original public opinion survey to understand the mechanisms at work. Do residents in affected areas feel a loss of community identity? Do they blame the government for prioritising foreign investors over local needs? The survey will help us understand not just whether Golden Visas affect political attitudes, but why.

What impact could this have?

Golden Visa programmes exist across Europe and beyond, yet policymakers often lack evidence on their broader social consequences. This research will provide practical insights for designing investment-migration policies that balance economic benefits with housing affordability and social cohesion.

For Greece specifically, the findings will inform ongoing policy debates about the programme's future. The government has already raised investment thresholds several times and banned short-term rentals for Golden Visa properties—decisions made with limited evidence about their likely effects.

More broadly, this project contributes to our understanding of how economic policies can inadvertently reshape democratic participation. In an era of rising housing costs and political polarisation across Europe, understanding these connections has never been more important.

Research Team

  • Dr George Melios

    Principal investigator: Dr George Melios, Research Officer, HOC

  • Professor Georgios Kavetsos

    Co-Investigator: Professor Georgios Kavetsos, Professor in Behavioural Economics and Public Policy, School of Business & Management, Queen Mary University of London; Research Associate, HOC