CATS at EGU 2007

European Geosciences Union General Assembly|,Vienna, 15-20 April 2007

CATS members gave a number of presentations at EGU 2007. Abstracts submitted to EGU 2007 sessions:

Nonlinear processes in geophysics (NP)

Simple dynamical models from data: a tool for parametrizations and diagnostics (NP4.03)

Cuellar, M.C., Du, H., Judd, K. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Parameter Estimation in Nonlinear Systems using Shadowing Time'. Abstract.

Quantifying predictability (NP5.01)

Andrianova, A., Binter, R. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Benchmarks for Weather Forecasts in the medium range and beyond'. Abstract.

Binter, R., Broecker, J., Penzer, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Contrasting methods of ensemble interpretation'. Abstact.

Broecker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Increasing Reliability of Reliability Diagrams'. Abstract.

Broecker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'On the relative value of a High Resolution Forecast in an Ensemble Prediction System'. Abstract.

Broecker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper'. Abstract.

Smith, L.A., Du, H., Binter, R., Clarke, L. and Broecker, J. (2007) 'A framework for investigating: "How large should an ensemble be?'. Abstract.

Machete, R., Broecker, J., Kilminster, D., Smith, L.A. and Moroz, I.M. (2007) 'Quantifying Predictability using Multiple Ensembles under different Models: Limitations on the value of Probabilistic Forecasting'. Abstract.

Data assimilation in the presence of nonlinearities (NP5.02)

Broecker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'From Ensembles to Predictive Distribution Functions'. Abstract.

Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Data assimilation: using Indistinguishable States to solve Berliner's problem of chaotic likelihoods'. Abstract.

Du, H., Judd, K., Khare, S. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Nowcasting with Indistinguishable States'. Abstract.

Climate: past, present and future (CL)

Monthly, seasonal and decadal forecasting (CL2)

Higgins, S., Broecker, J., Clarke, L., Judd, K., Weisheimer, A. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Blending ensembles from multiple models'. Abstract.

Probabilistic Forecasts of Climate and the Potential Impacts of Climate Change (CL20)

Broecker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Software for Constructing Forecasts from Ensembles: the EMTOOL'. Abstract.

Cuellar, M.C. and Lopez, A. (2007) 'Extraction of uncertain information and potential impacts from a GCMs Physical Ensemble'. Abstract.

Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Relating the diversity in our models to the uncertainty in our future'. Abstract.

Smith, L.A., Tredger, E., Penzer, J. and Stainforth, D. (2007) 'Urns and experimental design in climate science'. Abstract.

Tredger, E., Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D. (2007) 'The impact of initial conditions in climate modelling'. Abstract.

Climate Models Intercomparison: Dynamics and Physical Processes (CL40)

Lopez, A., Cuellar, M.C. and Lizcano, G. (2007) 'Towards a consistent dynamics in a GCM perturbed physics ensemble'. Abstract.

Hawellek, D. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Tracing the history of estimated climate sensitivity'. Abstract.

Tredger, E., Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D. (2007) 'Investigating variations in heat flux adjustment in the ensemble'. Abstract.