Work in Progress Seminars 2025-26

Autumn Term 2025 - 2026

Tuesdays 12-1pm
Autumn Term Venue: CKK.2.18

30 September

There will be two 25-minute presentations of ongoing PhD projects by:

• Johann Ohler
• Geocoding Historical Census Enumeration Districts
• Abstract: Within-city variation is crucial for studying urban economics and neighbourhood sorting, but geographic limitations in historical census data restrict most research to county-level analysis. This project proposes a scalable geocoding procedure to obtain within-city locations for households in US cities for the 1880-1950 census. Using street intersections within enumeration districts, this automated approach requires minimal data inputs, rather than detailed historical maps and city directories. A trial implementation for 1880 New York successfully assigns locations to 92.7% of respondents, compared to 50% coverage in existing address-based approaches. The resulting crosswalk would enable researchers to use within-city variation to study the pattern of urban development, as well as exploiting fine-grained geographic variation to answer causal questions.
• Andrés Irarrázaval
• The Missing Redistributive State: Democracy, State Capacity, and Persistent Inequality in the Global South
• Abstract: Why does the Global South remain persistently more unequal than the Global North despite episodes of growth (Asia) and democratisation (Latin America)? Using newly available data on pre- and post-redistribution inequality (including public goods such as education and health), I find that redistribution (taxes and transfers) explains 65% of the North–South inequality gap— that is, 13 of the 20 Gini points average gap. Contrary to canonical models (Kuznets, Meltzer-Richard), high pre-tax inequality, even in democratic and high-income settings, does not always induce redistribution: this is mediated by state capacity. Where state capacity is weak—narrow tax bases, high informality— democracies fail to translate voter demands into redistribution, as in much of Latin America and India. There, taxation and social spending are limited in both coverage and levels. Conversely, high-state-capacity autocracies, like China and Singapore, achieve growth but not low inequality, as redistributive demands are muted. In the Global North, by contrast, the combination of democracy with strong state capacity—mass taxation, universal public goods coverage— is associated with 5 times more redistribution: an average Gini reduction of 33% versus 6% in the Global South. Most Global South countries are now richer than the Global North was when their tax and transfer systems expanded in the 1910s-50s. However, these systems remain undeveloped. As such, persistently higher inequality in the Global South is less about economic fundamentals (namely in Africa) and more about weak state capacity (Latin America, India) and policy choices in taxation and redistribution (Asia). These results challenge standard theories on inequality and highlight state capacity as a missing pillar of equality.

07 October

• Oliver Volckart
• The Holy Roman Empire at Bay: Financing the Defence Against the Ottomans, c. 1560-1610
• Abstract: How did the Holy Roman Empire solve the collective action problem of defending itself against the Ottomans between 1566 and 1606? To answer this question, the article first reassesses the extent to which the imperial estates paid their defence dues. The new approach followed here indicates that with on average 72.5 percent, compliance rates were more than 15 percentage points lower than previously suggested. The article then statistically examines factors that influenced compliance, finding that the perceived legitimacy of the grant of a Turkish Aid by the imperial diet increased the estates’ willingness to pay. Also, it finds that several groups of estates were willing to pay larger shares than their respective control groups. It argues that while the emperor used the funds to finance the wars with the Ottomans, the primary motive of these estates for contributing was securing the emperor’s support in protecting private property rights.

21 October

• Paul Kelly
• Ireland Transformed, Agricultural Rents in the Eighteenth Century
• Abstract: Ireland's economy was transformed in the eighteenth century. There was substantial economic growth, fueled by the agrarian, rather than the industrial, sector. This led to the growth of Dublin into one of the major cities of Europe by the end of the century. This paper presents work in progress on the establishment of a dataset of agricultural rents for the century, using the lease data available from the Irish Registry of Deeds. The sample size is large, covering leases for more than 5% of Irish agricultural land. From this dataset the author constructs estimates of the total rent for the island as a whole and rent per acre, allowing for problems of high variability and data selection. The paper is influenced by, but takes a different approach to, the Irish estate-based estimates of Solar & Hens, and Clark's work on English rents. Regional and international comparisons are provided, which show how Irish rents exceeded those in some parts of England by the end of the century and that rents were significantly lower in Ulster compared to other provinces.

9 December

There will be two 25-minute presentations of ongoing PhD projects by:

• Nicolas Brenninkmeijer
• "Gentlemanly Capitalism" revisited: colonial security holdings in Amsterdam & Brussels, 1900-1920
• Abstract: Who profited from empire? Existing research has largely framed the economics of empire in terms of flows between colonies and metropoles. This paper instead asks what those relationships meant within the metropoles themselves: who, amid the extreme wealth inequalities of the early twentieth century, actually held and profited from colonial assets? Using newly digitized estate-tax declarations from Amsterdam and Brussels for 1900 and 1920, we present preliminary evidence on the ownership of colonial securities. Early results point to a strong concentration of colonial wealth at the very top, providing empirical support for the so-called “gentlemanly capitalism” thesis as a driving force of colonialism, though the extent and mechanisms of this concentration remain under investigation.
• Noah Sutter
• The Colonial Origins of Regional Divergence in Europe: Evidence from Switzerland’s Interior Colonization during the High Middle Ages (10th-14th century).
• Abstract: This paper examines how different modes of colonization during Europe’s internal expansion in the High Middle Ages (10th-14th century) produced persistent differences in institutional development and long-run economic outcomes. Building on Braudel (1949), we argue that forest clearings—more common in Northern Europe—fostered more egalitarian institutions, in contrast to other, less labour-intensive settlement in open plains and coastal areas. Using a newly constructed dataset from the Historical Lexicon of Switzerland covering 5,299 locations, we classify colonization modes —forest clearings, marsh drainage, and plain settlements— and trace their association with early institutions and long-run development. Forest clearings, being more labour-intensive, promoted more egalitarian land access and greater local autonomy (judicial appointments, taxation, and policies). In contrast, marsh drainage required substantial capital investment, and plain settlements were more often dominated by nobles and urban elites —resulting in pro-elite institutions and limited autonomy. We identify selection intro treatment: certain groups, like the Walser, preferred mountainous, forest-dense areas to escape from feudal obligations, while nobles preferred areas with greater agricultural potential (fertile plains and marshes). Over time, forest clearings areas—initially poorer—became more prosperous as access to secure property rights and human capital grew in importance after 1750, generating a “reversal of fortune”. By uncovering the colonial origins of development within Europe itself, this paper connects the literatures on colonization, institutional persistence, and the European Little Divergence.

Winter Term 2025 - 2026

Tuesdays 12-1pm
Autumn Term Venue: CKK.2.18

20 January

• TBC
• TBC
• Abstract : TBC

10 February

• TBC
• TBC
• Abstract : TBC

17 February

• Joan Roses
• Quantifying Property and Financial Markets' Role in Agrarian Development: Spain, 1860–1932 (with Sergi Baso -UB- and Juan Carmona -UC3m).
• Abstract: In their previous study, Carmona and Roses (2025) emphasised the critical role of the institutional development of the property rights system in influencing market access, particularly in the context of land registration and mortgage availability across various Spanish regions. They observed that the financial burdens associated with land registration and securing mortgages were disproportionately higher for lower-value plots of land. This phenomenon created a barrier for landowners in provinces where plots were more affordable, hindering their ability to engage in the formal property market for transactions and mortgage acquisition.
  Given these preliminary observations, this paper aims to explore the repercussions of restricted market access on economic outcomes within the agrarian sector. The specific objectives include:
  1. Evaluating Agrarian Production: We will analyse how limited access to the formal property system, including mortgages, affects overall agrarian output. By examining agricultural production metrics across different regions with varying land registration capabilities, we aim to identify trends and discrepancies arising from these barriers.
  2. Assessing Productivity: The study will assess productivity levels within the agrarian economy, comparing regions with easy access to the formal market against those facing restrictions. This analysis will investigate factors such as yield per hectare, resource allocation efficiency, and labour productivity.
  3. Exploring Innovation: Innovation, which ranges from adopting new technologies to implementing advanced farming techniques, is an essential aspect of agricultural growth. We will measure how market access constraints influence the rate of innovation and the diffusion of new practices among farmers. This includes examining credit availability for investment in innovative tools and methods that enhance productivity.
  4. Regional Variations: This paper will highlight the regional disparities in economic outcomes due to differences in market access. By isolating factors specific to each province, we can better understand the broader implications of institutional development on agrarian economic dynamics.
  This detailed analysis aims to provide insights into the economic consequences of restricted market access and contribute to policy discussions to enhance property rights systems to foster equitable market participation and stimulate agrarian growth in developing economies.

17 March

• Youssef Ghallada
• Foreign banks’ competition in Asia in the Age of Imperialism: a network analysis - joint with Stefano Battilossi (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid), Florian Ploeckl (University of Adelaide), and Aditi Dixit (Wageningen University)
• Abstract : Our paper studies the evolution of the financial geography of South and South-East Asia in the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries. In this period, the region saw an intensification of commercial and geopolitical rivalries between traditional colonial powers (Britain, France, the Netherlands, Portugal) and emerging regional or global powers (US, Germany, Russia, Japan). One key dimension of this process was the massive entry of banks of different nationalities.
  The main objective of the paper is to empirically study the geographical, economic, and geopolitical factors that drove the expansion of the network of foreign branches in Asia. For this purpose, we used primary and secondary sources to build a unique and original dataset that includes 60 banks from different home-countries and their branches in 360 locations in host-countries across Asia at three benchmark years: 1880, 1900, and 1913. While recent historical research deals with the effect of international banking connections on trade (Kisling 2020 and 2022; Xu 2022; Ghallada 2024) and lending (Kisling and Molteni 2024) at country level, we are the first to explore the spatial characteristics and determinants of international bank networks before 1914 at this high level of granularity. The inclusion of a geopolitical dimension of analysis also connects the paper with the emerging stream of research in geoeconomics (Mohr and Trebesch 2025).
  The originality of our contribution is also methodological. While studies of international banking, either in a historical or contemporary setting, rely on slightly different versions of gravity models, we study the spatial competition between individual banks and the resulting spatial dynamics of their branch networks and interconnectedness of local credit markets in Asia using a two-mode Stochastic Actor-Oriented Network model (Koskinen and Edling 2012; Snijders et al. 2010). This type of models provides a joint representation of the stochastic dependence between structure and agency in the form of co-evolution of networks and behaviour. In our case, we are able to model simultaneous entry/exit decisions in multiple locations with strategic interactions with rival banks and its own branch network, thus considering the endogeneity in the dynamics of branch expansion.

24 March

• Pamfili Antipa
• The Political Economy of Britain’s Return to Gold in 1925—a comparison with the resumption of 1821”, co-authored with Kirsten Wandschneider
• Abstract : Why are certain internal revaluations successful and others are not? We attempt to answer this question by comparing the British gold standard resumptions in 1821 and 1925. While the 1821 resumption served as a reference point for the later episode, no formal comparisons have so far allowed to evaluate and juxtapose the costs of internal adjustments. We find that resuming the gold standard in 1925 imposed costs on the British economy that were substantially larger than what had been sustained in 1821. Moreover, the return to gold in 1925 came with a very large increase in unemployment that seems politically unsustainable, regardless of the advent of the Great Depression. In addition, our analysis of high-frequency exchange rate data suggests that the return to gold in 1925 was surrounded by a high level of political uncertainty. This uncertainty aggravated inflationary tensions precisely when the return to gold necessitated a decline in prices.

31 March

• Logan Spencer
• Local Demand, Local Disorder? The Beerhouse Act and Crime in Nineteenth-Century London
• Abstract : TBC