Work in Progress Seminars 2025-26

Autumn Term 2025 - 2026

Tuesdays 12-1pm
Autumn Term Venue: CKK.2.18

30 September

There will be two 25-minute presentations of ongoing PhD projects by:

Johann Ohler
Geocoding Historical Census Enumeration Districts
Abstract:
Within-city variation is crucial for studying urban economics and neighbourhood sorting, but geographic limitations in historical census data restrict most research to county-level analysis. This project proposes a scalable geocoding procedure to obtain within-city locations for households in US cities for the 1880-1950 census. Using street intersections within enumeration districts, this automated approach requires minimal data inputs, rather than detailed historical maps and city directories. A trial implementation for 1880 New York successfully assigns locations to 92.7% of respondents, compared to 50% coverage in existing address-based approaches. The resulting crosswalk would enable researchers to use within-city variation to study the pattern of urban development, as well as exploiting fine-grained geographic variation to answer causal questions.
Andrés Irarrázaval
The Missing Redistributive State: Democracy, State Capacity, and Persistent Inequality in the Global South
Abstract:
Why does the Global South remain persistently more unequal than the Global North despite episodes of growth (Asia) and democratisation (Latin America)? Using newly available data on pre- and post-redistribution inequality (including public goods such as education and health), I find that redistribution (taxes and transfers) explains 65% of the North–South inequality gap— that is, 13 of the 20 Gini points average gap. Contrary to canonical models (Kuznets, Meltzer-Richard), high pre-tax inequality, even in democratic and high-income settings, does not always induce redistribution: this is mediated by state capacity. Where state capacity is weak—narrow tax bases, high informality— democracies fail to translate voter demands into redistribution, as in much of Latin America and India. There, taxation and social spending are limited in both coverage and levels. Conversely, high-state-capacity autocracies, like China and Singapore, achieve growth but not low inequality, as redistributive demands are muted. In the Global North, by contrast, the combination of democracy with strong state capacity—mass taxation, universal public goods coverage— is associated with 5 times more redistribution: an average Gini reduction of 33% versus 6% in the Global South. Most Global South countries are now richer than the Global North was when their tax and transfer systems expanded in the 1910s-50s. However, these systems remain undeveloped. As such, persistently higher inequality in the Global South is less about economic fundamentals (namely in Africa) and more about weak state capacity (Latin America, India) and policy choices in taxation and redistribution (Asia). These results challenge standard theories on inequality and highlight state capacity as a missing pillar of equality.

07 October

Oliver Volckart
The Holy Roman Empire at Bay: Financing the Defence Against the Ottomans, c. 1560-1610
Abstract:
How did the Holy Roman Empire solve the collective action problem of defending itself against the Ottomans between 1566 and 1606? To answer this question, the article first reassesses the extent to which the imperial estates paid their defence dues. The new approach followed here indicates that with on average 72.5 percent, compliance rates were more than 15 percentage points lower than previously suggested. The article then statistically examines factors that influenced compliance, finding that the perceived legitimacy of the grant of a Turkish Aid by the imperial diet increased the estates’ willingness to pay. Also, it finds that several groups of estates were willing to pay larger shares than their respective control groups. It argues that while the emperor used the funds to finance the wars with the Ottomans, the primary motive of these estates for contributing was securing the emperor’s support in protecting private property rights.

14 October

Juan Roses Vendoiro (LSE)
Quantifying Property and Financial Markets' Role in Agrarian Development Spain, 1860-1932 (with Sergi Baso -UB- and Juan Carmona -UC3m)
Abstract: In their previous study, Carmona and Roses (2025) emphasised the critical role of the institutional development of the property rights system in influencing market access, particularly in the context of land registration and mortgage availability across various Spanish regions. They observed that the financial burdens associated with land registration and securing mortgages were disproportionately higher for lower-value plots of land. This phenomenon created a barrier for landowners in provinces where plots were more affordable, hindering their ability to engage in the formal property market for transactions and mortgage acquisition. Given these preliminary observations, this paper aims to explore the repercussions of restricted market access on economic outcomes within the agrarian sector. The specific objectives include:

Evaluating Agrarian Production: We will analyse how limited access to the formal property system, including mortgages, affects overall agrarian output. By examining agricultural production metrics across different regions with varying land registration capabilities, we aim to identify trends and discrepancies arising from these barriers.
Assessing Productivity: The study will assess productivity levels within the agrarian economy, comparing regions with easy access to the formal market against those facing restrictions. This analysis will investigate factors such as yield per hectare, resource allocation efficiency, and labour productivity.
Exploring Innovation: Innovation, which ranges from adopting new technologies to implementing advanced farming techniques, is an essential aspect of agricultural growth. We will measure how market access constraints influence the rate of innovation and the diffusion of new practices among farmers. This includes examining credit availability for investment in innovative tools and methods that enhance productivity.
Regional Variations: This paper will highlight the regional disparities in economic outcomes due to differences in market access. By isolating factors specific to each province, we can better understand the broader implications of institutional development on agrarian economic dynamics.

This detailed analysis aims to provide insights into the economic consequences of restricted market access and contribute to policy discussions to enhance property rights systems to foster equitable market participation and stimulate agrarian growth in developing economies.

21 October

Paul Kelly
Ireland Transformed, Agricultural Rents in the Eighteenth Century
Abstract:
Ireland's economy was transformed in the Eighteenth Century. There was substantial economic growth, fuelled by the agrarian, rather than the industrial, sector. This led to the growth of Dublin into one of the major cities of Europe by the end of the century. This paper presents work in progress on the establishment of a dataset of agricultural rents for the century, using the lease data available from the Irish Registry of Deeds. The sample size is large, covering leases for more than 5% of Irish agricultural land. From this dataset the author constructs estimates of the total rent for the island as a whole and rent per acre, allowing for problems of high variability and data selection. The paper is influenced by, but takes a different approach to, the Irish estate-based estimates of Solar & Hens, and Clark's work on English rents. Regional and International comparisons are provided, which show how Irish rents exceeded those in some parts of England by the end of the century and that rents were significantly lower in Ulster compared to other provinces.

9 December