Work in Progress Seminars 2025-26

Autumn Term 2025 - 2026

Tuesdays 12-1pm
Autumn Term Venue: CKK.2.18

30 September

There will be two 25-minute presentations of ongoing PhD projects by:

Johann Ohler
Geocoding Historical Census Enumeration Districts
Abstract:
Within-city variation is crucial for studying urban economics and neighbourhood sorting, but geographic limitations in historical census data restrict most research to county-level analysis. This project proposes a scalable geocoding procedure to obtain within-city locations for households in US cities for the 1880-1950 census. Using street intersections within enumeration districts, this automated approach requires minimal data inputs, rather than detailed historical maps and city directories. A trial implementation for 1880 New York successfully assigns locations to 92.7% of respondents, compared to 50% coverage in existing address-based approaches. The resulting crosswalk would enable researchers to use within-city variation to study the pattern of urban development, as well as exploiting fine-grained geographic variation to answer causal questions.
Andrés Irarrázaval
The Missing Redistributive State: Democracy, State Capacity, and Persistent Inequality in the Global South
Abstract:
Why does the Global South remain persistently more unequal than the Global North despite episodes of growth (Asia) and democratisation (Latin America)? Using newly available data on pre- and post-redistribution inequality (including public goods such as education and health), I find that redistribution (taxes and transfers) explains 65% of the North–South inequality gap— that is, 13 of the 20 Gini points average gap. Contrary to canonical models (Kuznets, Meltzer-Richard), high pre-tax inequality, even in democratic and high-income settings, does not always induce redistribution: this is mediated by state capacity. Where state capacity is weak—narrow tax bases, high informality— democracies fail to translate voter demands into redistribution, as in much of Latin America and India. There, taxation and social spending are limited in both coverage and levels. Conversely, high-state-capacity autocracies, like China and Singapore, achieve growth but not low inequality, as redistributive demands are muted. In the Global North, by contrast, the combination of democracy with strong state capacity—mass taxation, universal public goods coverage— is associated with 5 times more redistribution: an average Gini reduction of 33% versus 6% in the Global South. Most Global South countries are now richer than the Global North was when their tax and transfer systems expanded in the 1910s-50s. However, these systems remain undeveloped. As such, persistently higher inequality in the Global South is less about economic fundamentals (namely in Africa) and more about weak state capacity (Latin America, India) and policy choices in taxation and redistribution (Asia). These results challenge standard theories on inequality and highlight state capacity as a missing pillar of equality.

07 October

Oliver Volckart
The Holy Roman Empire at Bay: Financing the Defence Against the Ottomans, c. 1560-1610
Abstract:
How did the Holy Roman Empire solve the collective action problem of defending itself against the Ottomans between 1566 and 1606? To answer this question, the article first reassesses the extent to which the imperial estates paid their defence dues. The new approach followed here indicates that with on average 72.5 percent, compliance rates were more than 15 percentage points lower than previously suggested. The article then statistically examines factors that influenced compliance, finding that the perceived legitimacy of the grant of a Turkish Aid by the imperial diet increased the estates’ willingness to pay. Also, it finds that several groups of estates were willing to pay larger shares than their respective control groups. It argues that while the emperor used the funds to finance the wars with the Ottomans, the primary motive of these estates for contributing was securing the emperor’s support in protecting private property rights.

21 October

Paul Kelly
Ireland Transformed, Agricultural Rents in the Eighteenth Century
Abstract:
Ireland's economy was transformed in the Eighteenth Century. There was substantial economic growth, fuelled by the agrarian, rather than the industrial, sector. This led to the growth of Dublin into one of the major cities of Europe by the end of the century. This paper presents work in progress on the establishment of a dataset of agricultural rents for the century, using the lease data available from the Irish Registry of Deeds. The sample size is large, covering leases for more than 5% of Irish agricultural land. From this dataset the author constructs estimates of the total rent for the island as a whole and rent per acre, allowing for problems of high variability and data selection. The paper is influenced by, but takes a different approach to, the Irish estate-based estimates of Solar & Hens, and Clark's work on English rents. Regional and International comparisons are provided, which show how Irish rents exceeded those in some parts of England by the end of the century and that rents were significantly lower in Ulster compared to other provinces.

9 December

There will be two 25-minute presentations of ongoing PhD projects by:

Nicolas Brenninkmeijer
"Gentlemanly Capitalism" revisited: colonial security holdings in Amsterdam & Brussels, 1900-1920
Abstract:
Who profited from empire? Existing research has largely framed the economics of empire in terms of flows between colonies and metropoles. This paper instead asks what those relationships meant within the metropoles themselves: who, amid the extreme wealth inequalities of the early twentieth century, actually held and profited from colonial assets? Using newly digitized estate-tax declarations from Amsterdam and Brussels for 1900 and 1920, we present preliminary evidence on the ownership of colonial securities. Early results point to a strong concentration of colonial wealth at the very top, providing empirical support for the so-called “gentlemanly capitalism” thesis as a driving force of colonialism, though the extent and mechanisms of this concentration remain under investigation.
Noah Sutter
The Colonial Origins of Regional Divergence in Europe: Evidence from Switzerland’s Interior Colonization during the High Middle Ages (10th-14th century).
Abstract:
This paper examines how different modes of colonization during Europe’s internal expansion in the High Middle Ages (10th-14th century) produced persistent differences in institutional development and long-run economic outcomes. Building on Braudel (1949), we argue that forest clearings—more common in Northern Europe—fostered more egalitarian institutions, in contrast to other, less labour-intensive settlement in open plains and coastal areas. Using a newly constructed dataset from the Historical Lexicon of Switzerland covering 5,299 locations, we classify colonization modes —forest clearings, marsh drainage, and plain settlements— and trace their association with early institutions and long-run development. Forest clearings, being more labour-intensive, promoted more egalitarian land access and greater local autonomy (judicial appointments, taxation, and policies). In contrast, marsh drainage required substantial capital investment, and plain settlements were more often dominated by nobles and urban elites —resulting in pro-elite institutions and limited autonomy. We identify selection intro treatment: certain groups, like the Walser, preferred mountainous, forest-dense areas to escape from feudal obligations, while nobles preferred areas with greater agricultural potential (fertile plains and marshes). Over time, forest clearings areas—initially poorer—became more prosperous as access to secure property rights and human capital grew in importance after 1750, generating a “reversal of fortune”. By uncovering the colonial origins of development within Europe itself, this paper connects the literatures on colonization, institutional persistence, and the European Little Divergence.