ST304      Half Unit
Time Series and Forecasting

This information is for the 2019/20 session.

Teacher responsible

Dr Matteo Barigozzi COL.7.11


This course is compulsory on the BSc in Statistics with Finance. This course is available on the BSc in Actuarial Science, BSc in Business Mathematics and Statistics, BSc in Mathematics with Economics and BSc in Mathematics, Statistics, and Business. This course is available as an outside option to students on other programmes where regulations permit and to General Course students.


2nd year statistics and probability

Course content

The course introduces the student to the statistical analysis of time series data and simple models. What time series analysis can be useful for; autocorrelation; stationarity, trend removal and seasonal adjustment, basic time series models; AR, MA, ARMA; invertibility; spectral analysis; estimation; forecasting; introduction to financial time series and the GARCH models; unit root processes. 


20 hours of lectures and 10 hours of seminars in the MT.

There will be a reading week in week 6. 

Formative coursework

Written answers to set problems will be expected on a weekly basis.

Indicative reading

Peter J. Brockwell and Richard A. Davis, Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting


Christopher Chatfield, The Analysis of Time Series.

Robert H. Shumway, David S. Stoffer, Time Series Analysis and Its Applications: With R Examples

Ruey S. Tsay, An Introduction to Analysis of Financial Data with R


Exam (100%, duration: 2 hours) in the summer exam period.

Key facts

Department: Statistics

Total students 2018/19: 69

Average class size 2018/19: 23

Capped 2018/19: No

Value: Half Unit

Guidelines for interpreting course guide information

Personal development skills

  • Problem solving
  • Application of information skills
  • Communication
  • Application of numeracy skills
  • Commercial awareness
  • Specialist skills