Dr Gilberto Montibeller NAB 3.16

This course is compulsory on the BSc in Management Sciences. This course is available on the BSc in Management. This course is available as an outside option to students on other programmes where regulations permit and to General Course students.

MA107 and ST107, or the equivalent.

This course is focused on the analytic ability to make strategic decisions. Strategic decisions are hard to make, requiring large commitments of resources, involving long-term consequences that are hard to predict and multiple conflicting strategic objectives that are difficult to balance in the presence of risk and uncertainty. The course will present the cutting edge developments in risk and decision analysis, which allow the modelling and analysis of such decisions. (This is a course that is a natural complement for MG311, which aims at improving the intuitive decision abilities to make strategic decisions.)

20 hours of lectures and 9 hours of classes in the LT. 1 hour of lectures and 1 hour of classes in the ST.

Students will be expected to produce 3 pieces of coursework in the LT.

Indicative reading:

R.T. Clemen and T. Reilly, Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite, 3rd ed., Pacific Grove, Duxbury, 2014.

W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, D.v. Winterfeld (Eds.) Advances in Decision Analysis, New York, Cambridge University, 2007.

F. Eisenführ,  M. Weber and T. Langer (2010) Rational Decision Making, 1st ed. Berlin, Springer.

S. French, J. Maule and N. Papamichail (2009). Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

P. Goodwin & G. Wright (2009). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, Chichester, Wiley (4th Ed.).

R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa (1993) Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-offs. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2nd  ed.

P. Mcnamee and J. Celona (2007) Decision Analysis for the Professional. Menlo Park, Smart Org., 4th ed.

G.S. Parnell et al. (2013) Handbook of Decision Analysis. Hoboke, Wiley.

Exam (100%, duration: 2 hours) in the main exam period.