Dr D C Lane, NAB 3.33

The course is optional on MSc Management Science (Operational Research), MSc Management Science (Decision Sciences), MSc Management, MSc Public Management and Governance, MSc Management, Organisations and Governance and MPA programme (all streams). Students from other degrees are most welcome but will only be admitted by agreement. Students taking MN419 may take this course as well, but only in exceptional circumstances and subject to approval of the teacher responsible.

Pre-requisites are a sound understanding of algebraic and functional relationships as well as comfort with the use of differential equations and the practical use of computer packages.

This course introduces the theory and application of the system dynamics modelling approach as it is used to support strategic decision making in complex social systems. It involves the qualitative and quantitative mapping of the relevant system structure (including physical processes, information links and human decision making) and the simulation of the dynamic consequences of that structure. The aim is both to examine the general modes of behaviour that result so as to gain qualitative insights and also to experiment with alternative policies in order to formulate ones which improve behaviour. It has three distinctive themes: the concept of information feedback, the use of computer simulation models to explore complex behaviour and the need to work with the mental models of relevant system actors (with a view both to drawing on the relevant knowledge and interpretations of the system and to implementing the insights gained from the modelling process). The course deals with all stages of the modelling approach as well as introducing some research topics in the field. Students will use 'state of the art' simulation software with a graphical interface (currently STELLA/iThink) and will be expected to work extensively with quantitative computer models. The practical application of system dynamics will be emphasised throughout, using various cases studies from business, public-policy making and elsewhere.

The course is structured primarily around three themes, each with its own topics:

Feedback: Modelling feedback with causal loop diagrams (the concept of feedback, CLDs, conceptualisation exercises, the limits of CLDs).

Simulation Modelling: Simple structures (positive loop, negative loop, coupled loops, loop polarity and shifts in loop dominance), model formulation (rate equations, auxiliary equations, table functions, levels, delays, representation of decision processes, principles of formulation), model testing (understanding model behaviour, sensitivity analysis), policy analysis (general approach, application to inventory management).

Working with Mental Models: Insights and archetypes (necessity and benefits of system dynamics, use and abuse of archetypes, general system insights), system dynamics in organisations (as group decision support tool, as organisational learning tool).

In addition students will be introduced to: critiques of system dynamics, further applications, current research problems.

10 x three LT (primarily lectures but including problems classes).

J W Forrester, Industrial Dynamics; G P Richardson & A L Pugh, Introduction to Systems Dynamics Modelling with DYNAMO; J W Forrester, Principles of Systems; J Randers, Elements of the System Dynamics Method; J D W Morecroft & J Sterman, Modelling for Learning Organizations; G P Richardson, Feedback Thought in Social Science and System Theory; P M Senge, The Fifth Discipline; D H Meadows, The Global Citizen, J D Sterman, Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world, various research papers from The British Library of Political and Economic Science offprints collection.

Examined by three pieces of individual course work. These involve the following general areas and mark weightings: problem conceptualisation using causal loop diagrams (30%), computer model formulation (30%) and analysis of a pre-built simulation model and production of a management report on resulting policy insights (40%). These pieces of work are made available throughout the course and have staged hand-in dates, the last being on the first day of ST.