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Strategic Updates


Our Strategic Updates are short, forward looking publications from LSE IDEAS that identify topics of emerging strategic importance in international affairs. 

In IDEAS we certainly hope we have something worthwhile to offer a global public hungry for analysis rather than soundbites, open debate rather than cheap posturing.

IDEAS Director Professor Michael Cox

Latest updates:

China-US competition in the Balkans: Impact, regional responses, and larger implications

This strategic update from Sotirov Visiting Fellow Dr Ivan Lidarev analyses the competition between China and the US in the Balkans, striving to answer three broad research questions about its impact on the region. The paper analyses how the China-US competition has shaped the strategic framework in which Balkan states operate; how Balkan nations have responded strategically to this competition; and what the long-term implications of the regional US-China competition are.

China’s Semiconductors: Reflections on Sources and Solutions to an Expensive Problem

The semiconductor industry has been a renewed topic of political debate for over three years. Due to recent US sanctions on the most advanced semiconductors, the industry has quickly become another flashpoint in the competition between the US and China to dominate the 21st century’s strategic technologies. In this Strategic Update, Dr Jonathan Liebenau explains the development of the semiconductor industry in the context of China’s rise to become an increasingly capable technology power. China’s sustained efforts in industrial policy to cultivate a domestic innovation system coincided with Western firms’ offshoring strategies since the 1990s, transforming China into a large producer and consumer of semiconductors. While Taiwan and the West retained cutting edge chip design capabilities, Chinese firms such as Huawei and Hikvision have become competitive providers of mobile phones, surveillance equipment and related infrastructure services. Despite Washington and its partners’ conviction to constrain in China’s technological prowess, industrial policy initiatives such as the CHIPS Act will face an uphill battle when it comes to bringing manufacturing capacity back to Western economies. In this context, the UK must combine short term incentives with a longer-term strategic vision to remain competitive in one of the 21st century’s key strategic arenas.  

Is Feminist Foreign Policy driving progress for women’s representation in diplomacy? 

Building on an October 2022 Women in Diplomacy online event, this Strategic Update assesses the implications of feminist foreign policy (FFP) adoption for driving progress on improving women’s representation in diplomacy. Tracking the spread of FFPs globally and the ministers responsible for implementation, this paper focuses on their potential for improving or strengthening the role of women in diplomacy – including in ambassadorial and cabinet foreign-policy roles. 

NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept: One Year On

This Strategic Update summarises a roundtable discussion held at LSE IDEAS in July 2023.  Contributors to the discussion were: General Sir James Everard, Stuart Austin, Professor Gordon Barrass, Professor Christopher Coker, Tom McKane, Hugh Sandeman, Susan Scholefield, and Peter Watkins. None of the content of the Strategic Update is attributable to any one individual.

One year on from NATO’s Madrid 2022 summit, this Strategic Update address the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept and its implications for the future, especially regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine. The paper addresses the misalignment between preparations for defence and the real state of its armed forces, the UK’s symbolic support for Ukraine versus its capability, the concepts of resilience and deterrence, and finally the future of NATO’s relationship with Russia.

All updates by date:

China-US competition in the Balkans: Impact, regional responses, and larger implications
November 2023

This strategic update from Sotirov Visiting Fellow Dr Ivan Lidarev analyses the competition between China and the US in the Balkans, striving to answer three broad research questions about its impact on the region. The paper analyses how the China-US competition has shaped the strategic framework in which Balkan states operate; how Balkan nations have responded strategically to this competition; and what the long-term implications of the regional US-China competition are.

China’s Semiconductors: Reflections on Sources and Solutions to an Expensive Problem
November 2023

The semiconductor industry has been a renewed topic of political debate for over three years. Due to recent US sanctions on the most advanced semiconductors, the industry has quickly become another flashpoint in the competition between the US and China to dominate the 21st century’s strategic technologies. In this Strategic Update, Dr Jonathan Liebenau explains the development of the semiconductor industry in the context of China’s rise to become an increasingly capable technology power. China’s sustained efforts in industrial policy to cultivate a domestic innovation system coincided with Western firms’ offshoring strategies since the 1990s, transforming China into a large producer and consumer of semiconductors. While Taiwan and the West retained cutting edge chip design capabilities, Chinese firms such as Huawei and Hikvision have become competitive providers of mobile phones, surveillance equipment and related infrastructure services. Despite Washington and its partners’ conviction to constrain in China’s technological prowess, industrial policy initiatives such as the CHIPS Act will face an uphill battle when it comes to bringing manufacturing capacity back to Western economies. In this context, the UK must combine short term incentives with a longer-term strategic vision to remain competitive in one of the 21st century’s key strategic arenas.  

Is Feminist Foreign Policy driving progress for women’s representation in diplomacy?    
October 2023

Building on an October 2022 Women in Diplomacy online event, this Strategic Update assesses the implications of feminist foreign policy (FFP) adoption for driving progress on improving women’s representation in diplomacy. Tracking the spread of FFPs globally and the ministers responsible for implementation, this paper focuses on their potential for improving or strengthening the role of women in diplomacy – including in ambassadorial and cabinet foreign-policy roles. 

NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept: One Year On
September 2023

This Strategic Update summarises a roundtable discussion held at LSE IDEAS in July 2023.  Contributors to the discussion were: General Sir James Everard, Stuart Austin, Professor Gordon Barrass, Professor Christopher Coker, Tom McKane, Hugh Sandeman, Susan Scholefield, and Peter Watkins. None of the content of the Strategic Update is attributable to any one individual.

One year on from NATO’s Madrid 2022 summit, this Strategic Update address the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept and its implications for the future, especially regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine. The paper addresses the misalignment between preparations for defence and the real state of its armed forces, the UK’s symbolic support for Ukraine versus its capability, the concepts of resilience and deterrence, and finally the future of NATO’s relationship with Russia.

China’s smart cities and the future of geopolitics 
May 2023

In this latest Strategic Update, Valentin Weber explores Chinese scientific research and industry application of smart cities, with ‘city brains’. The geostrategic implications for these complex Chinese smart city construction projects outside of China – particularly surrounding surveillance and artificial intelligence – and a potential future ‘world digital brain’ must be considered by policymakers, even if we are far away from an eventual bifurcation of the global internet.

Countering United Front Work: Taiwan’s Political Warfare System
March 2023

This strategic update introduces the challenges posed by China’s united front work, which has significantly expanded due to unprecedented institutional elevation and support under Xi Jinping. Mariah argues that Taiwan—a country that has effectively resisted China’s united front activities for several decades—can serve as an instructive case for other democratic countries in institutionalising counter-interference operations. The briefing initially explores the origins of Taiwan’s political warfare system, its evolution from the martial law era to democratisation in the 1990s, and how this history informs the institution’s modern structure and operations. The information presented in this report was compiled during a period of fieldwork in Taiwan from late September to early November 2022, in which she interviewed dozens of political warfare officers as well as Taiwanese defence and security experts–a majority of whom have chosen to remain anonymous. In the conclusion, Mariah offers broad policy recommendations based on these findings that may be applicable to other countries experiencing united front work activities and or seeking to institutionalise counter-interference operations. 

The Energy Crisis Requires a Military Solution that Compels NATO to Spend like Estonia   
February 2023

In this LSE IDEAS Strategic Update, the authors focus on the intimate relationship between the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. It is argued that although Western sanctions against Russia’s energy sector have been a welcome political statement, they have so far been inadequate. Moreover, in the absence of expanding Ukraine’s defence systems, supplying the country with critical equipment to rebuild its energy sector while it is under constant Russian bombardment has limited impacts. Consequently, the authors argue that to solve the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe, NATO and its allies need to “spend like Estonia.” Spending like Estonia would, among others, entail ramping up support for Ukraine to 1.1% of each member state’s GDP. Such an approach could help Ukraine to decisively win the war in 2023, and it would help to avert a potential energy crisis during the next winter.  

China’s Global Strategy as Science Fiction
January 2023

Xi Jinping is leading China in a new direction, but how are we to understand his global strategy? For most countries, to understand domestic and international politics we would analyse authoritative sources – leaders’ speeches, official documents and statistics, elite interviews and essays, and public opinion surveys. In the 2000s these methods worked well to probe Chinese politics. But since civil society and independent thought have been severely restricted under Xi, it’s necessary to go beyond such “factual” sources. To understand China’s global strategy, it’s best to read fiction, especially Chinese science fiction. This essay critically analyses Liu Cixin’s novels, The Wandering Earth and the Three Body Problem trilogy, to probe how Chinese sci-fi pushes us to think creatively about key topics: the relation of humans and technology, the relation of science and politics, and the relations between political communities, i.e. are we doomed to existential struggle, or can we engage with difference in creative and productive ways? 

China’s Provinces as Global Actors: Evidence from China-Africa Relations

January 2023

With the launch in the early 2000s of China’s ‘Going Global’ Strategy, Chinese provinces became one group of actors participating in China’s South-South relations. In this Strategic Update, Charlotte Lenz investigates the role of Chinese provinces as foreign policy actors and explains their internationalisation strategies, challenging the prevalent perception of China as a unitary actor on the world stage. Drawing on evidence from Africa-China relations, the report identifies two strategies employed by Chinese provinces in pursuit of their foreign policy interests: (1) Formal and informal “twinning” as a collaborative model between central and local actors, wherein central actors design policies and provincial governments execute projects; (2) and “clustering” according to a sectoral logic of investment and diplomacy in which a certain Chinese province engages a certain foreign country. Despite ongoing bureaucratic centralisation under Xi Jinping, provinces continue to pursue their own internationalisation strategies to help meet local economic and employment targets. Understanding their agency, interests and limitations is thus key to deriving a better understanding of China’s evolving global presence.

“Best and Bosom Friends” Putin, Xi and the Challenge to the West
November 2022

In Strategic Update, LSE IDEAS co-founder Professor Michael Cox highlights China as a significant player in the current tragedy occurring within Ukraine. Prof Cox traces the relationship between the People’s Republic and the USSR, through to the latter’s collapse into the Russian Federation, their formation of a strategic partnership against a unipolar post-Cold War order, and the rise in power of Xi Jinping alongside two international crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine. This Update finds that, whilst there are limits to their shared interests, China is politically committed to its Russian partner, and this status-quo leaves us in a more dangerous world.

NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: Matching Ambition with Reality
October 2022

This Strategic Update is based on a discussion hosted by LSE IDEAS in July 2022 on NATO’s 2030 Strategic Concept. Participants in the discussion included: General Sir James Everard, Gordon Barrass, General Sir Richard Barrons, Lt Gen Giles Hill, ProfessorChristopher Coker, Dr Luca Tardelli, Marissa Kemp, Tom McKane, and Peter Watkins. This Strategic Update reflects points made during the discussion, but no participant is in any way committed to its specific content, and the views expressed here are attributable solely to the authors.

Russian Strategic Interest in Arctic Heats Up as Ice Melts
September 2022

In this latest Strategic Update, COL Robert A. McVey, Jr addresses why Russia has dramatically changed its Arctic strategy since 2007, committing significant military and fiscal resources to the region. McVey additionally describes the diplomatic, information, legal, and military tools of national power that Russia is craftily employing to pursue, promote, and protect its growing strategic economic interests in the Arctic, finding that the possibility of conflict between great powers remains ever present, regardless of the potential for cooperation or competition. Given that Russia’s Arctic strategy is primarily driven by economic interests, this paper makes five key recommendations for U.S. policymakers and military leaders, focusing on security cooperation programmes with NATO allies and the Arctic states.

Turkey’s Involvement in the Libyan Conflict: The Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean and Drone Warfare
August 2022

In this strategic update Buğra Süsler explains Turkish foreign policy-making around a fragile Libya, highlighting its impact on power dynamics in the North Africa and the Middle East, as well as opening a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper addresses Turkey’s regional economic and political motives, the AKP’s increasingly hawkish use of hard power – especially the diplomatic and ethical implications of the Turkish military’s specialisation in drone warfare – and Ankara’s desire to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Libyan power-brokers key to post-civil war reconstruction.

China’s Digital Silk Road in Indonesia: Progress and implications
August 2022

This Strategic Update discusses the progress of China’s Digital Silk Road in Indonesia, a major destination, in both its hard and soft aspects, as well as the potential impact of its implementation. Chinese companies are offering a response to Indonesia’s needs, but concerns exist, especially surrounding security and surveillance, that Indonesia’s increasing reliance on China could also further erode its democracy. Click here to read the strategic update

The ‘Kosovo Precedent’: Russia’s justification of military interventions and territorial revisions in Georgia and Ukraine
July 2022

In this latest Strategic Update, Valur Ingimundarson explores Russia’s use of the ‘Kosovo precedent’, in order to instrumentalise its violation of international norms for geopolitical gain in the post-Soviet space. Ever since Kosovo’s 2008 unique and contested independence process, Russia has increasingly relied paradoxically on the Kosovo case to legally justify support for secession within, and now overt military expansionism into, post-Soviet territory: from its invasion of Georgia and support for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to the incorporation of Crimea into the Federation, its invasion of Ukraine, and current effort to absorb the Donbass region. Click here to read the Strategic Update


What Putin’s War in Ukraine Means for the Future of China-Russia Relations
 
May 2022

Björn Alexander Düben analyses China’s reaction to, and motivation in implicitly supporting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as Putin’s strategic blunder becomes increasingly difficult to deal with. The author finds that, as long as Putin remains in power, long-term alignment since 2014 and a shared authoritarian world-view will cement closer ties between the PRC and Russian Federation; this at the cost of the latter devolving to a client-state dependent on China to keep its economy afloat, whilst the PRC’s cautious state banks further diminish Russian hopes of financial cooperation in order to avoid secondary sanctions from the West. Click here to read the Strategic Update

ASEAN: Seeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine through a glass darkly 
May 2022

Ahead of the ASEAN special summit on 12-13 May in Washington D.C., Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid confronts the dichotomy between ASEAN’s chartered principles on territorial integrity and the disunity of individual member states’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The shadow of China looms large over the diminishment of ASEAN’s centrality, and the long-term dangers to the southeast Asia region from the conflict have been little considered. The Biden administration should emphasise the war’s impact on business and economics during the summit, as well as Russian irredentist support, to help ASEAN’s leaders see through the glass more clearly Click here to read the Strategic Update

NATO’s Resilience: The first and last line of defence
May 2022

Ahead of NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022, Hugh Sandeman and Jonny Hall confront the political challenges posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the alliance’s 2021 Strengthened Resilience Commitment, especially in creating collective standards when resilience remains the responsibility of individual member states. The authors find that resilience is a psychological mindset as well as a material factor, and NATO’s ‘whole-of-society’ approach should be framed within the concept of ‘deterrence by denial’ to potential threats. Click here to read the Strategic Update

Decoding China’s “Common Prosperity” Drive
April 2022

The term “common prosperity” has quickly risen to prominence in Chinese domestic politics amid an intense regulatory crackdown on China’s leading tech companies. However, this new policy agenda offers no clear road map or explicit policy instructions, giving way to various interpretations which while insightful do not depict the complete picture. In this strategic update, Xin Sun argues that the fundamental purpose of common prosperity is to support a new political order that keeps significant power in the hands of Xi and his closest allies and bolsters the supreme leader’s political survival in the coming decades. Click here to read the Strategic Update

Strategies for Order in a Disorderly World
March 2022

In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Aaron McKeil aims to clarify debates between realism and liberalism, as applied theories. While he finds that each position is not without merits, under scrutiny neither is found to offer a sufficient strategy for order in a disorderly world. Click here to read the Strategic Update.

ASEAN's Cambodian Stress Test
March 2022

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has faced an unprecedented challenge since the military junta seized power in a coup in Myanmar in 2020. Departing from its initial premise of ‘non-interference’ in the domestic policies of its member states, the regional group decided to ban Myanmar’s military representatives from meetings and summits. The five-point plan for consensus was supported by most members, however, Cambodia’s tenure as Chair of this organisation has brought the plan’s efficacy and longevity into question. At a time when Europe stands united against Russian actions in Ukraine, with a coherent and consistent response from states across the continent, can ASEAN do the same as it seeks to find a peaceful solution in the case of Myanmar? Click here to read the Strategic Update.

Regime Change No More: Coming to Terms with the Greater Middle East
February 2022

Reflecting on the ‘farcical retreat from Afghanistan’ back in August 2021, Henrik Larsen discusses the need for a reckoning within US foreign policy and that of its NATO Allies. To focus on the other challenges to transatlantic security with a sense of integrity, these states must come to grips with their failed regime change agenda over the past 20 years. Afghanistan was the first of their interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2001, alongside Iraq, Libya, and Syria, that obscured the pursuit of realistic objectives and prioritised (liberal) ideals that proved to be detached from the local realities. In the wake of NATO’s new Strategic Concept for 2030 and beyond, this Strategic Update seeks to analyse the options for policy in the Middle East going forward. Click here to read the Strategic Update.

The Long Shadow of the Soviet Union: Demystifying Putin's Rhetoric Towards Ukraine
February 2022

As tensions between Russia and Ukraine reach an almost-tipping point, Björn Alexander Düben analyses the historical and geopolitical rhetoric Putin and his government have deployed against the post-Maidan Ukraine since 2014. Asking, can this be seen as another Russian assertion of dominance in the post-Soviet region, could there be reasons closer to home, or why tensions across the border seem to once again be at a breaking point. From global oil prices to regime consolidation, an analysis into the words of Russia’s elites could unveil what future Europe is steering towards. Click here to read the Strategic Update.

Can Chancellor Scholz Save the West? The New German Government and Global Geopolitics
January 2022

In the wake of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure from the German Chancellorship, her successor, Olaf Scholz, inherits a Germany which has been lacking in strategic vision and an acute foreign policy for a considerable amount of time. Maximilian Terhalle asks, can Chancellor Scholz provide this vision for his country, and imbue NATO and the EU with a coherent and unified foreign policy in the face of threats from China, Russia, and a divided ‘West’? Click here to read the Strategic Update.

The Russian Diaspora in the Baltic States: The Trojan Horse that never was
December 2021

Thirty years ago this month, the world shook as one of the only two Superpowers unexpectedly collapsed, creating enormous ramifications for the 25 million ethnic Russians who found themselves as non-titular citizens outside the borders of the newly formed Russian Federation. This ‘beached diaspora’ has been left marginalised and treated with fear, by the Baltic States in their nation-building policies and has left many to think of this community as ‘ripe’ for Russian influence. This Strategic Update will analyse Russian soft power polices and the development of ‘Russkii Mir’ as a tool for utilising this diaspora to further its foreign policy. Tools, which have been seemingly unaffected to a community of autonomy seeking citizens. Click here to read the Strategic Update.

Shaping the Indo-Pacific? Japan and Europeanisation
November 2021

In this Strategic Update, Professor Yee-Kuang Heng investigates European power projection and presence in the Indo-Pacific, and its converging nature with Japan’s attempt to shape the regional environment in its favour. While UK threat perceptions have converged significantly with Japan’s since former Prime Minister David Cameron’s promulgation of a “golden era” in relations with China, managing expectations of Japan’s attempt to ‘shape’ and encourage Europeanisation remains crucial. But is it fair to conclude that Japan has been successful in encouraging a stronger European presence to help it shape the Indo-Pacific order? Download PDF

NATO and the Future Character of Warfare
September 2021

Hugh Sandeman and Jonny Hall write an LSE IDEAS Strategic Update exploring NATO and the future character of warfare, based on a private discussion held in June. Read onlineDownload PDF

How Can America Challenge China's Political Ambitions in an Age of Deglobalisation?
September 2021

COVID-19 has accelerated the trend of deglobalisation and further entrenched China into the growing political and economic fort of Asia. This has made the US less effective at implementing policies aimed at curbing Beijing’s political ambitions and strength in the region. Washington must therefore make itself indispensable in Asia and employ strategies for bringing China into a global network that can collectively reign in the Asian giant’s growing influence. Read online / Download PDF

The Dragon Lands in Belgrade: The Drivers of the Sino-Serbian Partnership
July 2021

From ‘vaccine diplomacy’ to ‘debt-trap diplomacy’, this Strategic Update examines the Sino-Serbian partnership we are witnessing and what the future has in store for Serbian policymakers. Read online / Download PDF

Facing A Strategic Endgame? The US and the Ambiguities of Strategic Thinking
June 2021

The disastrous strategic failures by the US in the past 30 years can be explained by its failure to understand what strategy actually is and how ambiguity lies at its heart. As a result, it has stumbled from crisis to crisis. There is no reason to think that it is any better placed under Biden to address the challenges of a ‘post-hegemonic’ world, argues Christopher Coker. Read online / Download PDF

Twitter and Digital Diplomacy: China and COVID-19
June 2021

This Strategic Update explores how official Chinese foreign policy entities have used Twitter as a public diplomacy platform during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the nature of their Twitter activity, and what this means for Chinese Twitter Diplomacy in the future. Read online / Download PDF

President Biden's Africa Policy
May 2021

Joe Biden’s administration has committed to transforming America’s relationships across the globe. This period of reform presents the opportunity for a long-overdue reimagination of America’s policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this Strategic Update, Rebecca Rattner and Bjorn Whitmore argue a successful new relationship between America and Sub-Saharan Africa must rely on genuine partnership, support to local actors, and strong regional institutions. Their piece considers how to apply these principles in practice by examining the nuanced socio-political realities in East, West, Central, and Southern Africa. Read online / Download PDF

Coordination Failure: Risks of US-China competition in space
April 2021

Gidon Gautel seeks to outline and call attention to two high-risk flash points arising from the development of the US & China’s national space programmes and industries. Read online / Download PDF

How International Aid Can Do More Harm Than Good: the case of Lebanon
February 2021

As Lebanon reckons with another round of crisis, what should the international community do? In this Strategic Update, Valentina Finckenstein traces three decades of wasted aid and elite entrenchment, as well as the evolution of development theory, to advance a new course of action that will not make the mistakes of the past. Read online / Download PDF

Germany and the World of Yesterday
January 2021

In the past six decades, the four pillars of Germany’s post-World War II security model were built and expanded: NATO, the European Union, trans-Atlanticism and free trade. This gave Germans their longest period of peace, making them fantastically rich as the world’s fourth biggest economy. Can Germany’s view of itself as a ‘big Switzerland’ be sustained? Leon Mangasarian argues not. Read his Strategic Update. Read online / Download PDF

The War is Dead, Long Live the War? Counterterrorism after the Trump Presidency
December 2020

In his re-election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed to be ending America's 'endless wars'. In this Strategic Update, Jonny Hall examines this claim by reviewing the Trump administration's counterterrorism policies over the last four years, showing that although there has been recent concrete progress towards withdrawal, this does not constitute an ending the so-called 'forever wars'. Read online / Download PDF

Myanmar's Search for Normalcy in an Abnormal World
November 2020

In this Strategic Update, Matthew B. Arnold explores how international actors should embrace the complexity of Myanmar to support its pursuit of normalization. Read online / Download PDF

Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad
October 2020

For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government. Read online / Download PDF

All Hands on Deck: The Crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Need for US Leadership
October 2020

Crisis has returned to the Eastern Mediterranean where Greek and Turkish economic interests, legal claims, and armed forces are squaring off. In this Strategic Update, Alexandros Zachariades explores how the two NATO powers arrived at the current confrontation, how the contest intersects with issues ranging from China to Libya, and how the international community can resolve the tension. Read onlineDownload PDF

Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: Principles and Challenges
August 2020

The conduct of economic diplomacy must adapt. Linda Yueh writes about the framework for economic diplomacy in the 21st century in this Strategic Update. Read online / Download PDF

Technology in Conflict: how COVID-19 contact tracing apps can exacerbate violent conflicts

August 2020

Jennifer Easterday explores how a human security approach to COVID-19 tech tools would prompt tech companies, governments, and other actors to work with communities in ways that enhance their agency in the face of the pandemic to both reduce the risk of exacerbating conflict while maximizing the benefits of technology. Read online / Download PDF

China in One Country: interdependence or globalisation 'with Chinese characteristics'?
July 2020

In this Strategic Update, George Magnus investigates what is meant when China’s leadership speaks of globalisation, and what the implications of the answer are for the rest of the world. Read online / Download PDF

From Russia With Love? Serbia’s Lukewarm Reception of Russian Aid and Its Geopolitical Implications
June 2020

As the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic reached the Balkans, Serbia has energetically taken its partnership with China to the next level. However, while Russia has supplied aid to Serbia to combat the pandemic, it has not received the same attention from the Serbian leadership and public the way China did. Vuk Vuksanovic examines Serbo-Russian relations during the coronavirus pandemic and its geopolitical implications. Read online / Download PDF

Europe in a Multipolar World
June 2020

Benjamin Martill and Lisa ten Brinke examine in more detail the position of Europe — and the EU — in a multipolar world. Read online / Download PDF

Biowar next? Security implications of the coronavirus
June 2020

In this Strategic Update, Karsten Friis investigates the pandemic's potential consequences for the world, its armed forces, the integration of Europe, US-China relations, as well as the concept and practice of 'war' more broadly. Read online / Download PDF

Wings Along the BRI: Exporting Chinese UCAVs and Security?
May 2020

China’s pursuit of military innovation has met a more active diplomacy along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Filling the void left by traditional suppliers, Chinese Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) have proliferated along the BRI and are starting to affect Middle Eastern and African security landscapes. This Strategic Update explains the drivers and implications of these developments in the context of China’s modernising defence industrial base and more active role in security cooperation in the Global South. Read online / Download PDF

Making Sense of Technological Spheres of Influence
March 2020

The deterioration of Sino-American relations and the rise of novel forms of statecraft have given way to a worrying new feature of the international system: technological spheres of influence. In this Strategic Update, Valentin Weber explains how we have arrived at this novel geopolitical arrangement, where in the world the greatest contestation lies, and what the future of technospheres may hold. Read online / Download PDF

Battleground Southeast Asia: China's Rise and America's Options
March 2020

Southeast Asia, while still a reservoir of goodwill for the US, has in recent years come increasingly under China's umbrella. Charles Dunst analyzes China's expansion there, discusses Southeast Asians' American predeliction, and offers  steps the US can take to "win back" the region. Read online

China and COVID-19: a shock to its economy, a metaphor for its development
February 2020

George Magnus examines what the Chinese response to the coronavirus, COVID-19, means for the economy, development, and Xi Jinping himself. Read online / Download PDF

Axis of Convenience? Israel and China in a multipolar world
February 2020

Despite being one of the most important allies of the United States in the Middle East, Israel has been building a new partnership with China since 2013. Vuk Vusanovic explores the new partnership between Israel and China in this Strategic Update, and what this means alongside Israel's alliance with the United States. Read online / Download PDF

Old Issues, New Threats: Mine Action and IEDs in Urban Environments
February 2020

Dave Luke explores how Mine Action’s policy and practices are coming under strain from the contemporary conflict trends of urbanisation and non-state armed groups (NSAG) using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This Strategic Update considers if there is a paradigm shift underway or if the current frictions are growth pains for this generation of humanitarian responders. Read online / Download PDF

China in the 2020s: a more difficult decade?
September 2019

The conventional narrative is that China is, or will, by 2030, be the largest economy in the world. Based on commonly held expectations historically about prewar Germany, the USSR and Japan, greater humility would not go amiss. It is not preordained that past economic trends will continue, especially in view of a much compromised outlook for both China and the rest of the world in the 2020s. Read online / Download PDF

The Weaponisation of the Dollar
August 2019

The decision by the Trump administration to withdraw from the Iran deal and to amplify its sanctions regime against Iran has demonstrated how a relatively unused and untested tool available uniquely to the US: the dollar as a currency, together with the infrastructure of the global payments system, is being weaponised. Read online / Download PDF

Refining Britain's Economic Diplomacy
July 2019

The UK government’s professed intent to leave the European Union and negotiate its own free trade agreements means that Britain would be setting its own trade policies for the first time since 1973, and would need to explicitly set out the aims of British trade and associated foreign investment policies for the first time in four decades. While current global and domestic conditions are politically challenging, this offers an opportunity for the UK to take the lead in ensuring that trade and investment policies benefit all in society. Read online / Download PDF

Turkey: An Emerging Middle Power in a Changing World?
May 2019

Turkey has increased its international presence in recent years and attracted wide academic attention. In this Strategic Update, Dr Buğra Süsler discusses Turkey’s engagement with global politics, questioning whether and how Turkey fits into the international system as an “emerging middle power”. Read online / Download pdf

Regionalism Revisited in the Post-Arab Spring Middle East
April 2019

The Arab Middle East may be coming together as never before, but so far that's inviting more confrontation than cooperation. In this Strategic Update, Professor Ayşegül Sever explores the new forces of regionalization and crises of regionalism in the world's most contentious corner. Read online / Download pdf

Britain’s Pivot to Asia: The Perils & Possibilities of Post-Brexit Politics
March 2019

As the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union, will the Brexiteers' vision of a "Global Britain" finally emerge? Will a pivot to Asia unlock the possibilities they claim? In this Strategic Update, Stephen Paduano explores the future of British engagement in the Indo-Pacific, the opportunities that exist, and the dangers that lie ahead. Read online / Download pdf

Power Dynamics in an Era of Big Data
March 2019

In this Strategic Update, Stacy Langworthy investigates a force under-explored and under-theorised in the world of International Relations and policy making: big data. Who can hold it? Who can harness it? What can it do? Read online / Download pdf

Why Do Foreign Fighters Join Islamic State?
November 2018

In this Strategic Update Asya Metodieva explores the reasons why Kosovans are travelling to Syria. She uses an in-depth analysis of both quantitative and oral sources, shedding light on the interaction of what are termed ‘identity producers’ and ‘identity seekers’. Read online / Download pdf

A Global Trade Hub for Services: the UK after Brexit
July 2018

Can Britain become a hub for global trade in services, with overlapping free trade agreements? In this Strategic Update, Linda Yueh outlines the approach to the Brexit negotiations needed to achieve this outcome. Read online / Download pdf

A Digital Geneva Convention? The Role of the Private Sector in Cybersecurity
May 2018

Cybersecurity has risen to the top of the international agenda.  This Strategic Update explores what role the private sector should play in the global policy response, with companies on the 'frontline' of the cyber threat often being more proactive than states. Read online / Download pdf

Victors and Victims: Creating a Military for the Digital Age
February 2018

In this Strategic Update, General Sir Richard Barrons warns that our military capabilities must be comprehensively rethought, or we will all be at risk. He sets out 8 principles for how to create an effective military for the digital age. Read online / Download pdf

Understanding the Global Rise of Populism
February 2018

In this Strategic Update, Michael Cox explores the causes of populists' recent electoral successes around the world. He argues it is important to try and understand populist anger and the wider causes of populism, including the end of Communism. Read online / Download pdf

What are think tanks for? Policy research in the age of anti-expertise
December 2017

What role can and should think tanks play in a 'post-truth' world? In this Strategic Update, Rosa Balfour argues that to meet complex policy challenges think tanks need to improve their diversity, innovate, and re-focus on their core mission. Read online / Download pdf

Merkel's Fourth Term
October 2017

Following the 2017 German election, Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to continue in power for a fourth term. But this historic achievement feels like a heavily qualified victory. This Strategic Update looks at what the start of Merkel’s fourth term will mean for German politics, Eurozone reform, and Brexit. Read online / Download pdf

The Chinese Communist Party Congress: An Essential Guide
September 2017

This Strategic Update is the essential guide to the Chinese Communist Party Congress, one of the world's most secretive and exclusive political meetings. Read online / Download pdf

Realising the aims of 'Global Britain'
September 2017

How can 'Global Britain' create an effective post Brexit trade strategy? In this Strategic Update, Linda Yueh sets out how Britain can work towards a role as a global trading 'hub'. Read online

China's One Belt, One Road: A Reality Check
July 2017

The world is excited, yet confused about the potential of China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. What exactly is it? This Strategic Update explains the origins of the idea, who in Beijing really runs OBOR, and the existential challenges to the project. Read online / Download pdf

The 14 Brexit Negotiations
March 2017

The process of Brexit goes far beyond invoking Article 50. In this Strategic Update, Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver identify some 14 Brexit negotiations underway - both formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates between and within the UK and EU. Read online / Download pdf

Making the 'Special Relationship' Great Again?
January 2017

Donald Trump’s election poses uncomfortable questions for Britain about the future of the UK-US ‘Special Relationship’. This Strategic Update looks at the core elements of the ‘Special Relationship’ that could be under strain and how Britain could be left between a Trump Rock and a Brexit Hard Place. Read online / Download pdf

The Greek Euro Tragedy
November 2016

This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and how the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability has contributed to the instability of the Eurozone. Read online / Download pdf

ASEAN: In or Out? No Way…Not yet?
October 2016

The UK voted to leave the EU on a wave of populist anger. Does the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) face a similar threat to regional integration? In this Strategic Update, Tan Sri Munir Majid assesses the prospect of a member state leaving ASEAN and the future of UK-ASEAN relations after Brexit. Read online / Download pdf

Brexit: What Happens Next?
June 2016

Brexit is a process not an event. This Strategic Update sets out the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions will take in negotiations, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.  Read online / Download pdf

A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU
February 2016

This Strategic Update examines what Brexit means for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security. Read online / Download pdf

The Long Road to Tehran: The Iran Nuclear Deal in Perspective

In 2015 Iran and the P5+1 reached a deal designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. How was this momentous agreement reached? This Strategic Update traces the story of this major diplomatic breakthrough, through the historical context of long term US-Iran relations.

Paving the Road to Paris? How the EU Can Facilitate a Climate Deal

On the road to the Paris climate change conference in December 2015, this Strategic Update asks what the EU can do to influence a higher level of ambition and continue to have a leadership role in the global climate community.

China-EU Relations and the Future of European Soft Power

Despite the obvious differences in political structures, the EU’s most comprehensive partnership with newly emerging powers over the past few years has been with China. This Strategic Update argues that in part this is due to a shared cultural heritage and China's identification with Europe's ancient culture.

Banking on Beijing

The crisis in Ukraine has led to new bilateral economic, financial and energy projects between China and Russia. But in the face of Western sanctions is Moscow taking a strategic risk by Banking on Beijing? This Strategic Update analyses the conflict's impact on Russia-China relations.

Common EU Policies on Authorised Immigration

The idea of 'Fortress Europe' has dominated debates on EU immigration policies. However, this focus on security and illegal migration has obscured important developments in EU policy on authorised migration. This Strategic Update analyses the construction of common EU policies that recognise the need for particular categories of international migrants.

Perspectives on Open Government in Latin America

Open Government, the idea of transparent, accountable and participatory governments, is blossoming in Latin America. This Strategic Update summarises a workshop at LSE ahead of the Open Government Partnership Summit in London.

The Laws of War and Cyberspace

This Strategic Update examines the militarisation of cyberspace and considers ways to prevent the Internet from turning into a battlefield.

Putinism: The Ideology

For too long, Vladimir Putin was dismissed as a thuggish or thoughtless authoritarian leader. But the institutional and ideological underpinnings of Putinism are quite sophisticated. This Strategic Update from Philippe Roman Chair Anne Applebaum analyses them. 

Japan and the US Pivot to the Asia Pacific

This Strategic Update analyses the consequences of the US pivot to Asia on the US-Japan alliance and on Japanese foreign and security policies.

The Anglo-French Defence Treaty

The signing of the Anglo-French Defence Treaty was one of the UK coalition's most significant policies. In the context of defence cuts on both sides of the Atlantic and the Channel, this Strategic Update assesses the consequences of the Treaty for Anglo- French defence cooperation.

Why Gandhi Matters

In India, Gandhi is known as the Father of the Nation. But Gandhi was, and remains, a genuinely trans-national figure. Ramachandra Guha explores four of Gandhi's ideas that remain important inspirations today.

The Euro Crisis: A Historical Perspective

This Strategic Update sheds light on the current euro crisis by looking at the debates preceding the conception of the euro. How can the early days of EU monetary cooperation help us understand today’s predicament? And what lessons can we draw from them for the euro?

Zimbabwe and Political Transition

This Strategic Update looks at the factors which helped ZANU-PF as a former liberation movement retain power and lead to a one-party dominant state in Zimbabwe. It also explores the extent to which ZANU-PF is adapting to democratic politics and multiparty elections.

Strategic Updates: Editor's highlights

Putinism: The Ideology

For too long, Vladimir Putin was dismissed as a thuggish or thoughtless authoritarian leader. But the institutional and ideological underpinnings of Putinism are quite sophisticated. This Strategic Update from Philippe Roman Chair Anne Applebaum analyses them.

What are think tanks for? Policy research in the age of anti-expertise

What role can and should think tanks play in a 'post-truth' world? In this Strategic Update, Rosa Balfour argues that to meet complex policy challenges think tanks need to improve their diversity, innovate, and re-focus on their core mission. Read online / Download pdf

The Chinese Communist Party Congress: An Essential Guide

This Strategic Update is the essential guide to the Chinese Communist Party Congress, one of the world's most secretive and exclusive political meetings. Read online / Download pdf

Why Gandhi Matters

In India, Gandhi is known as the Father of the Nation. But Gandhi was, and remains, a genuinely trans-national figure. Ramachandra Guha explores four of Gandhi's ideas that remain important inspirations today.

The Euro Crisis: A Historical Perspective

This Strategic Update sheds light on the current euro crisis by looking at the debates preceding the conception of the euro. How can the early days of EU monetary cooperation help us understand today’s predicament? And what lessons can we draw from them for the euro?

Strategic Update topics: Brexit

A Global Trade Hub for Services: the UK after Brexit

Can Britain become a hub for global trade in services, with overlapping free trade agreements? In this Strategic Update, Linda Yueh outlines the approach to the Brexit negotiations needed to achieve this outcome. Read online / Download pdf

Merkel's Fourth Term

Following the 2017 German election, Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to continue in power for a fourth term. But this historic achievement feels like a heavily qualified victory. This Strategic Update looks at what the start of Merkel’s fourth term will mean for German politics, Eurozone reform, and Brexit. Read online / Download pdf

Realising the aims of 'Global Britain'

How can 'Global Britain' create an effective post Brexit trade strategy? In this Strategic Update, Linda Yueh sets out how Britain can work towards a role as a global trading 'hub'. Read online / Download pdf

The 14 Brexit Negotiations

The process of Brexit goes far beyond invoking Article 50. In this Strategic Update, Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver identify some 14 Brexit negotiations underway - both formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates between and within the UK and EU. Read online / Download pdf

Brexit: What Happens Next?

Brexit is a process not an event. This Strategic Update sets out the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions will take in negotiations, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.  Read online / Download pdf

A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU

This Strategic Update examines what Brexit means for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security. Read online / Download pdf

Strategic Update topics: US Foreign Policy

Making the 'Special Relationship' Great Again?

Donald Trump’s election poses uncomfortable questions for Britain about the future of the UK-US ‘Special Relationship’. This Strategic Update looks at the core elements of the ‘Special Relationship’ that could be under strain and how Britain could be left between a Trump Rock and a Brexit Hard Place. Read online / Download pdf

The Long Road to Tehran : The Iran Nuclear Deal in Perspective

In 2015 Iran and the P5+1 reached a deal designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. How was this momentous agreement reached? This Strategic Update traces the story of this major diplomatic breakthrough, through the historical context of long term US-Iran relations.

Japan and the US Pivot to the Asia Pacific

This Strategic Update analyses the consequences of the US pivot to Asia on the US-Japan alliance and on Japanese foreign and security policies.

Strategic Update topics: China

The Chinese Communist Party Congress: An Essential Guide

This Strategic Update is the essential guide to the Chinese Communist Party Congress, one of the world's most secretive and exclusive political meetings. It explains who takes part in the Congress, how leadership transitions work, the other important functions of the Congress, and why the world should be watching. Read online / Download pdf

China's One Belt, One Road: A Reality Check

The world is excited, yet confused about the potential of China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. What exactly is it? This Strategic Update explains the origins of the idea, who in Beijing really runs OBOR, and the existential challenges to the project. Read online / Download pdf

Banking on Beijing

The crisis in Ukraine has led to new bilateral economic, financial and energy projects between China and Russia. But in the face of Western sanctions is Moscow taking a strategic risk by Banking on Beijing? This Strategic Update analyses the conflict's impact on Russia-China relations.

China-EU Relations and the Future of European Soft Power

Despite the obvious differences in political structures, the EU’s most comprehensive partnership with newly emerging powers over the past few years has been with China. This Strategic Update argues that in part this is due to a shared cultural heritage and China's identification with Europe's ancient culture.

Strategic Update topics: European Union

Merkel's Fourth Term

Following the 2017 German election, Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to continue in power for a fourth term. But this historic achievement feels like a heavily qualified victory. This Strategic Update looks at what the start of Merkel’s fourth term will mean for German politics, Eurozone reform, and Brexit. Read online / Download pdf

The Greek Euro Tragedy

This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and how the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability has contributed to the instability of the Eurozone. Read online / Download pdf

The Euro Crisis: A Historical Perspective

This Strategic Update sheds light on the current euro crisis by looking at the debates preceding the conception of the euro. How can the early days of EU monetary cooperation help us understand today’s predicament? And what lessons can we draw from them for the euro?

Common EU Policies on Authorised Immigration

The idea of 'Fortress Europe' has dominated debates on EU immigration policies. However, this focus on security and illegal migration has obscured important developments in EU policy on authorised migration. This Strategic Update analyses the construction of common EU policies that recognise the need for particular categories of international migrants.

Paving the Road to Paris? How the EU Can Facilitate a Climate Deal

On the road to the Paris climate change conference in December 2015, what are the prospects for a deal among the key international players - the United States, China, and India? This Strategic Update asks what the EU can do to influence a higher level of ambition and continue to have a leadership role in the global climate community.

Strategic Update topics: Cybersecurity

A Digital Geneva Convention? The Role of the Private Sector in Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity has risen to the top of the international agenda.  This Strategic Update explores what role the private sector should play in the global policy response, with companies on the 'frontline' of the cyber threat often being more proactive than states. Read online / Download pdf

Victors and Victims: Creating a Military for the Digital Age

In this Strategic Update, General Sir Richard Barrons warns that our military capabilities must be comprehensively rethought, or we will all be at risk. He sets out 8 principles for how to create an effective military for the digital age. Read online / Download pdf

The Laws of War and Cyberspace

This Strategic Update examines the militarisation of cyberspace and considers ways to prevent the Internet from turning into a battlefield.