Brexit_US_EU SCP

High Hopes, Long Odds

On the False Promises of Brexiteer Deals with the EU and US

The political fallout associated with the economic hit of no-deal—or any form of harder Brexit—should not be underestimated

John Ryan, LSE IDEAS Visiting Fellow

This report explores a No-Deal Brexit which would leave the UK economically, politically and diplomatically weakened and isolated. It further examines the relationships with its two main allies - the European Union and the United States - which would become more difficult and complicated.

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High Hopes, Long Odds

Published 10 December 2019.

About the Authors

John Ryan is a Visiting Fellow at LSE IDEAS. John is a Fellow of the CESifo Network. He works as a Senior Brexit adviser for private and public sector organizations.

Gabriel Felbermayr is President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Professor for Economics and Economic Policy at Kiel University. His research and advisory activities focus on economic global governance and international trade policy.

Clemens Fuest is President of the ifo Institute and Professor for Economics and Public Finance at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich. A member of various advisory groups, he is an expert on economic and fiscal policy, taxation and European integration.

Jasmin Gröschl is the Deputy Director of the ifo Center for International Economics. Her research interests are focused on empirical and theoretical modelling of international trade flows. Dr Gröschl has published extensively on the trade cost effects of the UK’s various potential arrangements with the EU and the effect of border controls.

Daniel Stöhlker is a PhD student at the Munich Graduate School of Economics and a Junior Economist at the ifo Institute in the research group ‘Fiscal and Tax Policy’. He works on European fiscal policy and international tax and transfer systems.