{"id":91201,"date":"2026-10-13T11:01:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T10:01:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=91201"},"modified":"2026-10-13T11:01:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T10:01:17","slug":"food-security-benefits-of-more-accurate-weather-forecasts-in-the-context-of-a-changing-climate","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/food-security-benefits-of-more-accurate-weather-forecasts-in-the-context-of-a-changing-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Food security benefits of more accurate weather forecasts in the context of a changing climate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Climate change is making it increasingly difficult for farmers to protect their harvests, particularly in lower-income countries reliant on rainfed agriculture. Hot droughts, for example, have caused crop yields to fall by as much as 30% in parts of India, the United States and Russia. These losses threaten food security and livelihoods, with impacts felt both locally and across global food systems. Access to reliable weather forecasts could therefore be essential for reducing crop losses caused by extreme weather events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors of this paper combine household and farm survey data from Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda and Bangladesh with weather forecasts and historical weather records to examine how farmers respond to changing weather conditions and forecast information. In particular, they analyse whether farmers are less likely to experience crop losses, and whether they make different decisions about hiring labour, when they perceive historical forecast data to be more accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the four countries studied, the authors find that access to reliable weather forecasts helps farmers make better decisions. Farmers are more likely to change their practices when local weather forecasts have proved reliable in the past and when they warn of more extreme weather than might have been anticipated. More accurate forecasts are linked to lower rates of crop loss, particularly during periods of extreme heat and heavy rainfall. By helping farmers anticipate and respond to weather risks, improved forecasting could boost agricultural productivity and contribute to greater food security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key points for decision-makers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n