{"id":86018,"date":"2026-07-16T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T23:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&#038;p=86018"},"modified":"2026-07-14T14:22:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T13:22:07","slug":"the-effect-of-the-eu-emission-trading-scheme-on-emissions","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/the-effect-of-the-eu-emission-trading-scheme-on-emissions\/","title":{"rendered":"The effect of the EU Emission Trading Scheme on emissions"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<?xml encoding=\"UTF-8\"><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Launched in 2005, the European Union&rsquo;s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) covers the greenhouse gas emissions of major industrial sectors, including power generation, industrial production and aviation. Under the EU ETS, a cap is set on the total amount of emissions allowed from these sectors. Companies operating within them must &lsquo;surrender&rsquo; one &lsquo;allowance&rsquo; for each tonne of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2<\/sub>) they emit. These allowances can then be traded, enabling emissions reductions where they are most cost-effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this paper, the authors examine the effect of the EU ETS on greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2023. To do this, the authors compare emissions of industrial sites covered by the EU ETS with similar-sized sites in the same sector and country not covered by the scheme (because their emissions fall below the scheme&rsquo;s inclusion criteria). The authors use data from the UK, the Netherlands, France and Norway because these countries require companies to report CO<sub>2 <\/sub>emissions even at low levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key points for decision makers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strong evidence that the EU ETS has reduced industrial emissions<\/strong>: the authors find a clear trend of reduced industrial carbon emissions linked to the EU ETS: 12% reduction between 2008 and 2012, 18% between 2013 and 2020, and 41% between 2021 and 2024. This 41% reduction is around 800 million tonnes of CO<sub>2 <\/sub>per year, making the EU ETS the most impactful climate policy in the world.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Larger emission reductions in bigger plants<\/strong>: the 25% smallest installations reduced their emissions by 14%, whereas the 25% largest installations reduced their emissions by 22%. As large installations are underreported in the sample, the effect on all ETS installations might be even larger.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Industrial emissions reduced in line with cap: <\/strong>by design, installations covered by the ETS will not emit more than the emissions cap set by the regulator. This certainty about the environmental outcome is a key strength of a &lsquo;cap-and-trade&rsquo; scheme over a carbon tax. However, the flip side of this environmental certainty is that the economic effort to reduce emissions, that is, the carbon price, is uncertain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A cap-and-trade system creates a forward-looking incentive: <\/strong>between 2012 and 2018 carbon prices fell to below &euro;10 per tonne of CO<sub>2<\/sub>. However, even in this period of low carbon prices, carbon emissions continued to decrease, because future higher carbon prices are anticipated in investment decisions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Industrial emissions reductions on target for net zero by 2050, if policy maintained: <\/strong>if the current EU ETS is maintained, the yearly 2.2% reduction of the cap will lead covered sectors to zero emissions in 2050. However, while the EU ETS has broad support from policymakers and the public, the long-time horizon and the expectation of rising abatement costs makes the ETS sensitive to political backlash. This shows the importance of policymakers implementing accompanying measures that protect trade-exposed sectors and vulnerable consumers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<?xml encoding=\"UTF-8\"><p>In this paper, the authors examine the effect of the EU Emission Trading Scheme on greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2023. <\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":86020,"template":"","tags":[183,840,64,1133],"publication-type":[435],"topic_area":[4694,4696],"class_list":["post-86018","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-climate-policy","tag-european-emission-trading-scheme","tag-industry","tag-net-zero","publication-type-working-papers","topic_area-policy-evaluation","topic_area-uk-emissions-policy"],"acf":{"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"show_translations_widget":{"ref_value":"field_6203d588c41e8","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":["https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/GRI-working-paper-455-Bogachev-and-Venmans-final.pdf"],"type":"download","post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["frank-venmans","anton-bogachev"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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