Defocusing disasters? Climate shocks and the attention\u2013policy translation failure - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/understanding-how-disasters-shape-incentives-for-climate-action-is-central-for-the-low-carbon-transition-in-this-paper-the-authors-ask-do-climate-related-disasters-accelerate-mitigation-policy-or-ca\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Defocusing disasters? 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{"id":85479,"date":"2026-04-14T09:22:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T08:22:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=85479"},"modified":"2026-04-14T12:18:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T11:18:11","slug":"understanding-how-disasters-shape-incentives-for-climate-action-is-central-for-the-low-carbon-transition-in-this-paper-the-authors-ask-do-climate-related-disasters-accelerate-mitigation-policy-or-ca","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/understanding-how-disasters-shape-incentives-for-climate-action-is-central-for-the-low-carbon-transition-in-this-paper-the-authors-ask-do-climate-related-disasters-accelerate-mitigation-policy-or-ca\/","title":{"rendered":"Defocusing disasters? Climate shocks and the attention\u2013policy translation failure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Understanding how disasters shape incentives for climate action is central for the low-carbon transition. In this paper the authors ask: do climate-related disasters accelerate mitigation policy or can they slow it down?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors develop a political-economy model in which disasters simultaneously (i) raise the perceived returns to mitigation by increasing the salience of climate risk, and (ii) tighten fiscal constraints through damages and triggering reconstruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model reveals what the authors describe as an ‘attention–policy translation failure’: disasters beyond a certain level of severity can increase perceived climate risk and demand for climate action while reducing mitigation policy in the near-to-medium term. This shortfall in mitigation policy can persist for a decade through capital dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This mechanism is illustrated using the 1990 Western European windstorm, during which highly exposed countries showed rising public concern alongside a relative slowdown in mitigation legislation over the subsequent decade, consistent with the model’s ‘defocusing’ channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key points for decision-makers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n
A central question for the political economy of climate policy is whether disasters act as a wake-up call that accelerates greenhouse gas mitigation activity or instead shift priorities and constrain resources in ways that slow it down.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
This paper argues that the answer depends on the difference between how disasters shift public beliefs <\/em>and how they shift policy output<\/em>. The authors call this gap the attention–policy translation failure and develop a model that explains when and why it arises.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
They show that although disasters increase public attention to climate risk, this does not reliably translate into sustained mitigation policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Even large shocks may fail to produce meaningful long-run reductions in climate risk, highlighting a key limitation of relying on disasters to spur policy action.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
The mechanism operates through two opposing forces. A disaster raises the perceived probability of future climate risk, generating electoral demand for mitigation. At the same time, post-disaster periods are dominated by reconstruction and crisis management, which tightens fiscal constraints and raises the opportunity cost of mitigation precisely when it appears most urgent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n
Understanding how disasters shape incentives for climate action is central for the low-carbon transition. In this paper the authors ask: do climate-related disasters accelerate mitigation policy or can they slow it down?<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":85481,"template":"","tags":[82,5014,1850,425],"publication-type":[435],"topic_area":[4692,4691,4694],"class_list":["post-85479","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-climate-action","tag-climate-disasters","tag-climate-risk","tag-mitigation","publication-type-working-papers","topic_area-adaptation-and-resilience","topic_area-loss-and-damage","topic_area-policy-evaluation"],"acf":{"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"show_translations_widget":{"ref_value":"field_6203d588c41e8","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":["https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/GRI-working-paper-444-Galanis-et-al-final-DOI.pdf"],"type":"download","post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["giorgos-galanis","giorgio-ricchiuti","ben-tippet"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\nDefocusing disasters? 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