{"id":85479,"date":"2026-04-14T09:22:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T08:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=85479"},"modified":"2026-07-16T10:00:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T09:00:50","slug":"understanding-how-disasters-shape-incentives-for-climate-action-is-central-for-the-low-carbon-transition-in-this-paper-the-authors-ask-do-climate-related-disasters-accelerate-mitigation-policy-or-ca","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/understanding-how-disasters-shape-incentives-for-climate-action-is-central-for-the-low-carbon-transition-in-this-paper-the-authors-ask-do-climate-related-disasters-accelerate-mitigation-policy-or-ca\/","title":{"rendered":"Focusing attention, defocusing policy: climate shocks and the attention\u2013policy translation failure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Understanding how disasters shape incentives for climate action is central for the low-carbon transition. In this paper the authors ask: do climate-related disasters accelerate mitigation policy or can they slow it down?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors develop a political-economy model in which disasters simultaneously (i) raise the perceived returns to mitigation by increasing the salience of climate risk, and (ii) tighten fiscal constraints through damages and triggering reconstruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model reveals what the authors describe as an ‘attention–policy translation failure’: disasters raise concern about climate risks and boost demand for action, yet they can end up reducing mitigation efforts, particularly when severe. Severe shocks squeeze public finances hard, making it more expensive to act, while the additional payoff from further cutting risk starts to shrink once the danger already feels real. This shortfall in mitigation policy can persist for a decade through capital dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This mechanism is illustrated using the 1990 Western European windstorm, during which highly exposed countries showed rising public concern alongside a relative slowdown in mitigation legislation over the subsequent decade, consistent with the model’s ‘defocusing’ channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key points for decision-makers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n