{"id":82831,"date":"2026-01-10T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T00:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&#038;p=82831"},"modified":"2026-03-02T15:27:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T15:27:34","slug":"adoption-incidence-and-welfare-impacts-of-interest-free-loans-evidence-from-solar-pv","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/adoption-incidence-and-welfare-impacts-of-interest-free-loans-evidence-from-solar-pv\/","title":{"rendered":"Adoption, incidence and welfare impacts of interest-free loans: evidence from solar PV"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<?xml encoding=\"UTF-8\"><p>Steep declines in solar PV costs raise questions about whether, and how, to continue support. This paper analyses Scotland&rsquo;s interest-free Home Energy Scotland (HES) Loan, which encourages household PV adoption by lowering borrowing costs and extending repayment periods, reducing upfront capital barriers.&nbsp;This type of instrument has a low fiscal cost but has been relatively under-examined in previous research on solar subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using a database of more than one million household PV installations in the UK over the period 2010&ndash;2021, the authors compare Scottish localities that have access to loans with similar English localities that are ineligible, before and after 2017, when the HES Loan was introduced.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The results show clearly that the HES Loan increased household adoption of rooftop solar panels in Scotland, even though the country has relatively low solar potential, and shifted take-up towards smaller systems suitable for smaller properties. In terms of the distributional impacts across wealth groups, unlike previously examined policies including upfront rebates and Feed-in-Tariffs (FiTs), there were broad gains and relatively larger effects in lower-wealth areas and across urban and accessible-rural locations, yielding a less skewed wealth and geographical distribution of installations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper also examines the value-for-money for the government. The results consistently indicate positive welfare gains from the loan at modest fiscal cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the paper provides robust evidence that interest-free loans can cost-effectively expand the uptake of household solar PV while promoting equitable access, complementing (and in some contexts outperforming) production-based support policies (i.e. those that subsidise households per unit of electricity produced by their solar panels).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key points for decision-makers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Financing works for household solar &ndash; even where the sun shines less.<\/strong>&nbsp;An interest-free loan increased household PV adoption in Scotland despite lower solar potential, offsetting the post-FiT decline observed in England. The policy channel is straightforward: it relaxes liquidity constraints and allows households to spread costs over time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The instrument shapes the systems people buy.&nbsp;<\/strong>With a capped, zero-interest loan (not scaled to generation), take-up shifts towards smaller systems and average output per new system falls, consistent with moving away from production-linked support towards upfront financing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Equity improves, not worsens.<\/strong>&nbsp;Unlike many FiT or rebate programmes that are found to be regressive (disproportionately burdening low-income groups), the loan&rsquo;s incidence is non-regressive and in several dimensions modestly progressive: gains are broad and relatively larger in lower-wealth areas. Installation inequality declined in Scotland while it increased in England over the same period.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Public money goes further with loans.&nbsp;<\/strong>A loan-specific marginal value of public funds (MVPF) &ndash; distinguishing the household NPV benefit from the fiscal NPV cost &ndash; exceeds one in baseline and across sensitivities, reflecting that government can often transfer &pound;1 of value to households at less than &pound;1 of budget cost when it can wait for repayment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Targeting without means-testing.<\/strong>&nbsp;Because the mechanism addresses upfront cost and credit issues directly, broad eligibility delivers larger proportional gains at the bottom of the property-value distribution without explicit means testing. Urban and accessible-rural areas respond particularly strongly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Portfolio design matters<\/strong>. Loans can complement rather than replace other instruments. In settings where production-based support becomes less generous (e.g. where FiTs are being wound down), well-designed zero-interest loans can sustain adoption, broaden participation and support objectives (e.g. equity; learning-by-doing) not fully captured by static cost-per-ton metrics.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DOI: <a class=\"link link--external\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21953\/researchonline.lse.ac.uk.00137107\" aria-describedby=\"link-description-new-window\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">10.21953\/researchonline.lse.ac.uk.00137107&#65279;<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" role=\"img\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M14.42 1.04L3.2.7a.8.8 0 00-.8.76v.1a.8.8 0 00.76.7l9.39.3L.93 14.16c-.3.3-.3.8 0 1.1l.09.08c.3.23.73.2 1.01-.07L13.65 3.65l.29 9.4a.8.8 0 00.8.76.79.79 0 00.77-.8L15.17 1.8a.82.82 0 00-.75-.76z\" fill=\"#2e3152\"><\/path><\/svg><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<?xml encoding=\"UTF-8\"><p>This paper analyses the impacts of Scotland&rsquo;s interest-free Home Energy Scotland Loan, which encourages household PV adoption by lowering borrowing costs and extending repayment periods.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":82833,"template":"","tags":[935,4833,215,5126,984,4171,1669,437],"publication-type":[435],"topic_area":[4694,4696,4697,4698],"class_list":["post-82831","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-england","tag-feed-in-tariffs","tag-finance","tag-loan","tag-scotland","tag-solar-panels","tag-solar-pv","tag-uk","publication-type-working-papers","topic_area-policy-evaluation","topic_area-uk-emissions-policy","topic_area-energy","topic_area-behavioural-responses"],"acf":{"show_translations_widget":{"ref_value":"field_6203d588c41e8","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":["https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/working-paper-438-Cass-et-al.pdf"],"type":"download","post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["leanne-cass","misato-sato","aurelien-saussay"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"<!-- 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