China’s consumption of coal could reach a peak by 2020, or even earlier, as part of its plans to pursue more sustainable economic growth.<\/p>\n
The policy paper by Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern notes that discussions are already taking place in China about the possibility of setting a target for ending the rise in its annual consumption of coal before the end of its 13th Five-Year Plan, which will cover the period from 2016 to 2020.<\/p>\n
The paper states: “China could intensify its efforts to reduce its reliance on coal, in the form of a plan to peak its coal consumption by 2020 (or earlier), as has been suggested as a possibility in some discussions occurring in China, and phase it out thereafter”.<\/p>\n
Paper based on a presentation by Lord Stern to the China Development Forum in March 2014, points out that limiting coal consumption could have substantial benefits for China’s economy, including a cut in the risk of shocks to the supply of energy, reduced pressure on its water supplies, an improvement in air quality, and the mitigation of climate change.<\/p>\n
Phasing out the use of coal could be achieved through clear planning regulations and a coal tax, which could potentially raise revenue equivalent to between 7 and 9 per cent of China’s GDP to invest in low-carbon innovation and infrastructure, to protect poorer people from the impacts of the transition to low-carbon economic growth, and to reduce other taxes.<\/p>\n
The paper also suggests that effective planning to promote the growth of compact and energy-efficient cities with good public transport “is likely to be essential to China’s future environmental and economic success”.<\/p>\n
The paper states: “China’s ambitions for more sustainable growth, its urbanisation plans, and its strategic emerging industry policy suggest the potential for a powerful vision: over a billion people living and working in appealing cities, in which services, high-technology industries, and innovation are the engines of growth and prosperity”.<\/p>\n
However, the paper also warns that “achieving these benefits will require major structural changes, with some inevitable dislocation, in the short term” in China’s economy.<\/p>\n
It concludes: “At present there is ignorance in many places over China’s plans and achievements. China can develop its influence by informing the world of its plans as its 13th Five-Year Plan is developed. China’s contributions are credible given past performance and do not necessarily have to be expressed in formal treaty terms. They could be expressed in terms of a range of outcomes, the upper bound of which could reflect ambitious yet likely achievable goals on emissions, coal consumption and low-carbon technology, although it would be recognised that these could not be guaranteed.”<\/p>\n
“Contributions of this nature by China could raise substantially the likelihood of more ambitious mitigation action by developed and other emerging economies. China would be well-positioned to both lead and share in much of the resulting global growth and would benefit immensely from the associated reduction in risks from climate damages.”<\/p>\n
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