Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/literature-informed-likelihoods-of-future-emissions-and-temperatures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The authors of this paper review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current\/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/literature-informed-likelihoods-of-future-emissions-and-temperatures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-19T13:59:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lse.ac.uk\\\/granthaminstitute\\\/publication\\\/literature-informed-likelihoods-of-future-emissions-and-temperatures\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lse.ac.uk\\\/granthaminstitute\\\/publication\\\/literature-informed-likelihoods-of-future-emissions-and-temperatures\\\/\",\"name\":\"Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures - 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{"id":70755,"date":"2024-04-15T12:12:45","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T11:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=70755"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:59:05","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:59:05","slug":"literature-informed-likelihoods-of-future-emissions-and-temperatures","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/literature-informed-likelihoods-of-future-emissions-and-temperatures\/","title":{"rendered":"Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current\/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current\/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frank Venmans, Ben Carr, Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures, Climate Risk Management, Volume 44, 2024, 100605, ISSN 2212-0963, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.crm.2024.100605.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

The authors of this paper review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current\/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"template":"","tags":[183,4150,4149,4153,4152],"publication-type":[436],"topic_area":[4692,4705],"class_list":["post-70755","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry","tag-climate-policy","tag-future-emissions","tag-probability-distribution","tag-stress-tests","tag-temperature-thresholds","publication-type-research-articles","topic_area-adaptation-and-resilience","topic_area-leadership"],"acf":{"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"show_translations_widget":{"ref_value":"field_6203d588c41e8","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":false,"type":"repeater","post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["frank-venmans",""],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"article_link":{"ref_value":"field_52eee3c7f0586","value":"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2212096324000226?via%3Dihub","type":false,"post_type":""},"article_link_title":{"ref_value":"field_5322399d89d42","value":"external link to paper","type":false,"post_type":""},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\nLiterature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures - 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