Extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H, and SMR geomagnetic indices - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/extreme-event-statistics-in-dst-sym-h-and-smr-geomagnetic-indices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H, and SMR geomagnetic indices - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The authors of this paper\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/extreme-event-statistics-in-dst-sym-h-and-smr-geomagnetic-indices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-06-21T15:14:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lse.ac.uk\\\/granthaminstitute\\\/publication\\\/extreme-event-statistics-in-dst-sym-h-and-smr-geomagnetic-indices\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lse.ac.uk\\\/granthaminstitute\\\/publication\\\/extreme-event-statistics-in-dst-sym-h-and-smr-geomagnetic-indices\\\/\",\"name\":\"Extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H, and SMR geomagnetic indices - 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{"id":66502,"date":"2023-03-20T16:11:21","date_gmt":"2023-03-20T16:11:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=66502"},"modified":"2023-06-21T16:14:03","modified_gmt":"2023-06-21T15:14:03","slug":"extreme-event-statistics-in-dst-sym-h-and-smr-geomagnetic-indices","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/extreme-event-statistics-in-dst-sym-h-and-smr-geomagnetic-indices\/","title":{"rendered":"Extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H, and SMR geomagnetic indices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Extreme space weather events are rare, and quantifying their likelihood is challenging, often relying on geomagnetic indices obtained from ground-based magnetometer observations that span multiple solar cycles. The Dst index ring-current monitor, derived from an hourly average over four low-latitude stations, is a benchmark for extreme space weather events, and has been extensively studied statistically. We apply extreme value theory (EVT) to two geomagnetic ring current indices: SYM-H (derived from 6 stations) and SMR (derived from up to 120 stations). EVT analysis reveals a divergence between the return level found for Dst, and those for SYM-H and SMR, that increases non-linearly with return period. For return periods below 10 years, hourly averaged SYM-H and SMR have return levels similar to Dst, but at return periods of 50 and 100 years, they respectively exceed that of Dst by about 10% and 15% (SYM-H) and about 7% and 12% (SMR). One minute resolution SYM-H and SMR return levels progressively exceed that of Dst; their 5, 10, 50, and 100 year return levels exceed that of Dst by about 10%, 12%, 20% and 25% respectively. Our results indicate that consideration should be given to the differences between the indices if selecting one to use as a bench mark in model validation or resilience planning for the wide range of space weather sensitive systems that underpin our society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bergin, A., Chapman, S. C., Watkins, N. W., Moloney, N. R., & Gjerloev, J. W. (2023). Extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H, and SMR geomagnetic indices. Space Weather<\/em>, 21, e2022SW003304. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2022SW003304