This empirical paper focuses on the relationship between changes in GDP and CO2 emissions as a country’s economy moves through periods of growth and decline. Using a comprehensive panel, we document substantial heterogeneity in the relationship across countries.<\/p>\n
Specifically, countries can be classified into one of the following three groups. Group D (for decline) includes countries where the emissions growth rate is more strongly associated with the GDP growth rate in periods of GDP decline than in periods of GDP growth. Group G (for growth) includes countries where the degree of association is stronger in periods of GDP growth. Finally, in group S (for symmetrical) it is not possible to reject the hypothesis that the relationship is the same for growth and decline.<\/p>\n
According to a simple count criterion, approximately a third of the countries in the sample fall into each group. Notably, China and the US, currently the world’s largest emitters by a substantial margin, are in group D.<\/p>\n
These results have potentially important consequences for long-term emissions projections. They also suggest that macroeconomic stabilization policies may have adverse emissions consequences by limiting the cleansing effect of periods in which GDP declines.<\/p>\n
Baran Doda<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n
Working Paper 116 Abstract This empirical paper focuses on the relationship between changes in GDP and CO2 emissions as a…<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":0,"template":"","tags":[225,291,382],"publication-type":[435],"topic_area":[4694],"class_list":["post-4182","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry","tag-business-cycles","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-gdp","publication-type-working-papers","topic_area-policy-evaluation"],"acf":{"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":["https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/WP116-emissions-gdp-growth-and-decline.pdf"],"type":"download","post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["baran-doda"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\n