{"id":4165,"date":"2013-04-01T13:39:20","date_gmt":"2013-04-01T13:39:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=4165"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:22:38","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:22:38","slug":"predicting-agricultural-impacts-of-large-scale-drought-2012-and-the-case-for-better-modeling-working-paper-111","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/predicting-agricultural-impacts-of-large-scale-drought-2012-and-the-case-for-better-modeling-working-paper-111\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought: 2012 and the case for better modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Working Paper 111<\/h2>\n

Abstract<\/h3>\n

The 2012 growing season saw one of the worst droughts in a generation in much of the United States and cast a harsh light on the need for better analytic tools and a comprehensive approach to predicting and preparing for the effects of extreme weather on agriculture. We present an example of a simulation-based forecast for the 2012 US maize growing season produced as part of a high-resolution multi-scale predictive mechanistic modeling study designed for decision support, risk management, and counterfactual analysis. We estimate national average yields of 7.507 t\/ha for 2012, 24.6% below the expected value based on increasing trend yield alone, with an interval based on resampled forecasts errors stretching from 5.586 to 8.967 t\/ha. On average, the median yield simulations deviate from NASS observations by 8.3% from 1979 to 2011.<\/p>\n

Joshua Elliot, Michael Glotter, Neil Best, Ken Boote, Jim Jones, Jerry Hatfield, Cynthia Rozenweig, Leonard A. Smith and Ian Foster<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

Working Paper 111 Abstract The 2012 growing season saw one of the worst droughts in a generation in much of…<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":0,"template":"","tags":[395,177,229],"publication-type":[435],"topic_area":[4692,4700],"class_list":["post-4165","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry","tag-agriculture","tag-extreme-weather","tag-usa","publication-type-working-papers","topic_area-adaptation-and-resilience","topic_area-land-and-oceans"],"acf":{"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":["https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/WP111-agricultural-impacts-large-scale-drought-2012-modeling.pdf"],"type":"download","post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["lenny-smith"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\nPredicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought: 2012 and the case for better modeling - 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