Evidence on CO2 emissions and business cycles - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/evidence-on-co2-emissions-and-business-cycles-working-paper-78\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evidence on CO2 emissions and business cycles - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Working Paper 78 Abstract CO2 emissions and GDP are positively correlated over the business cycle. 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{"id":4012,"date":"2012-04-01T11:58:35","date_gmt":"2012-04-01T11:58:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=4012"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:32:08","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:32:08","slug":"evidence-on-co2-emissions-and-business-cycles-working-paper-78","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/evidence-on-co2-emissions-and-business-cycles-working-paper-78\/","title":{"rendered":"Evidence on CO2 emissions and business cycles"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Working Paper 78<\/h2>\n

Abstract<\/h3>\n
CO2 emissions and GDP are positively correlated over the business cycle. Most climate change researchers would agree with the preceding intuitive statement despite the absence of a study that formally analyses the relationship between emissions and GDP at business cycle frequencies.<\/p>\n
The current paper attempts to address this gap in the literature by providing a simple, rigorous and consistent analysis of the relationship in a comprehensive cross country panel.<\/p>\n
To this end, we decompose the aggregate emissions and GDP series into their growth and cyclical components using the HP filter and focus on the cyclical components.<\/p>\n
Four robust facts emerge from this analysis:<\/p>\n
\n
Emissions are procyclical and cyclically more volatile than GDP in a typical country;<\/li>\n
Cyclical volatility of emissions is negatively correlated with GDP per capita across countries;<\/li>\n
Procyclicality of emissions is positively correlated with GDP per capita across countries; and<\/li>\n
The composition of GDP is crucial for the business cycle properties of emissions but the relationship is complex.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
We undertake and report an extensive set of robustness checks which corroborate these findings.<\/p>\n
Finally, we propose some preliminary thoughts on the mechanisms that may be generating the data with these properties.<\/p>\n
Baran Doda<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n
Working Paper 78 Abstract CO2 emissions and GDP are positively correlated over the business cycle. Most climate change researchers would…<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":0,"template":"","tags":[225,291,382],"publication-type":[435],"topic_area":[4694],"class_list":["post-4012","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry","tag-business-cycles","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-gdp","publication-type-working-papers","topic_area-policy-evaluation"],"acf":{"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":["https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/WP78-Evidence-CO2-emissions-business-cycles-Doda.pdf"],"type":"download","post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["baran-doda"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\nEvidence on CO2 emissions and business cycles - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/evidence-on-co2-emissions-and-business-cycles-working-paper-78\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evidence on CO2 emissions and business cycles - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Working Paper 78 Abstract CO2 emissions and GDP are positively correlated over the business cycle. 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