{"id":3952,"date":"2011-09-01T09:16:16","date_gmt":"2011-09-01T09:16:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=3952"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:22:43","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:22:43","slug":"forecasting-non-life-insurance-demand-in-the-brics-economies-a-preliminary-evaluation-of-the-impacts-of-income-and-climate-change-working-paper-61","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/forecasting-non-life-insurance-demand-in-the-brics-economies-a-preliminary-evaluation-of-the-impacts-of-income-and-climate-change-working-paper-61\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies: a preliminary evaluation of the impacts of income and climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Working Paper 61<\/h2>\n

Abstract<\/h3>\n

Insurance demand is driven by many factors, but for the emerging economies, one of the most significant historical drivers of growth has been income per capita.<\/p>\n

Based on a simple forecasting approach, we project that insurance penetration in the BRICS economies could increase at a rate of between 1.6 and 4.2% per year over the coming decade, depending on the country, due to rising per capita income. When other factors are included, this broadens to between 0.1 and 4.3% per year. This equates to a rate of increase in gross premium volumes of between 5.4 and 12.3% per year.<\/p>\n

The largest growth in insurance penetration and premium volumes is expected in China, closely followed by India and Russia. A concern for (re)insurers is how climate change may impact these growth paths.<\/p>\n

Based on current projections, we expect the impact on growth mediated through income to be small; less than a 0.4% adjustment in the annual growth rate in premium volumes to 2030.<\/p>\n

Nicola Ranger and Andrew Williamson<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

Working Paper 61 Abstract Insurance demand is driven by many factors, but for the emerging economies, one of the most…<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":0,"template":"","tags":[816,65],"publication-type":[435],"topic_area":[4692],"class_list":["post-3952","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry","tag-brics","tag-insurance","publication-type-working-papers","topic_area-adaptation-and-resilience"],"acf":{"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":["https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/WP61_insurance-brics-economies-climate.pdf"],"type":"download","post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["nicola-ranger"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\nForecasting non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies: a preliminary evaluation of the impacts of income and climate change - 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