The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/the-treatment-of-risk-and-uncertainty-in-the-us-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulatory-impact-analysis-working-paper-54\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Working Paper 54 Abstract This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established ‘social cost of...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/the-treatment-of-risk-and-uncertainty-in-the-us-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulatory-impact-analysis-working-paper-54\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-19T13:33:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lse.ac.uk\\\/granthaminstitute\\\/publication\\\/the-treatment-of-risk-and-uncertainty-in-the-us-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulatory-impact-analysis-working-paper-54\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lse.ac.uk\\\/granthaminstitute\\\/publication\\\/the-treatment-of-risk-and-uncertainty-in-the-us-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulatory-impact-analysis-working-paper-54\\\/\",\"name\":\"The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis - 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{"id":3923,"date":"2011-07-01T16:27:24","date_gmt":"2011-07-01T16:27:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=3923"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:33:25","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:33:25","slug":"the-treatment-of-risk-and-uncertainty-in-the-us-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulatory-impact-analysis-working-paper-54","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/the-treatment-of-risk-and-uncertainty-in-the-us-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulatory-impact-analysis-working-paper-54\/","title":{"rendered":"The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Working Paper 54<\/h2>\n

Abstract<\/h3>\n
This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established ‘social cost of carbon’ (SCC) for analysis of federal regulations in the United States.<\/p>\n
It argues that the analysis of the US Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon did not go far enough into the tail of low-probability, high-impact scenarios, and, via its approach to discounting, it misestimated climate risk, possibly hugely.<\/p>\n
Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by arguing that there is in fact much to commend an approach whereby a quantitative, long-term emissions target is chosen, and the price of carbon for regulatory impact analysis is then based on estimates of the marginal cost of abatement to achieve that very target<\/p>\n
Simon Dietz<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n
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