{"id":3834,"date":"2010-12-01T11:50:43","date_gmt":"2010-12-01T11:50:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=publication&p=3834"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:33:31","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:33:31","slug":"growth-dynamics-of-energy-technologies-using-historical-patterns-to-validate-low-carbon-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/growth-dynamics-of-energy-technologies-using-historical-patterns-to-validate-low-carbon-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Growth dynamics of energy technologies: using historical patterns to validate low-carbon scenarios|"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Working Paper 32<\/h2>\n

Abstract<\/h3>\n

Historical growth dynamics of energy technologies reveal a consistent relationship between the extent to which a technology’s installed capacity grows and the time duration of that growth. This extent – duration relationship – is remarkably consistent across both supply-side and demand-side technologies, and both old and new energy technologies. Consequently, it can be used as a means of validating future scenarios of energy technology growth under carbon constraints.<\/p>\n

This validation methodology is tested on the extents and durations of growth for a range of low-carbon technologies in scenarios generated by the MESSAGE energy system model, which has been widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).<\/p>\n

The key finding is that low-carbon technology growth in the scenarios appears generally conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. This is counterintuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low-carbon technologies under tight carbon constraints.<\/p>\n

Reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism are explored. Parametric conservatism in the underlying energy system model seems the most likely explanation.<\/p>\n

Charlie Wilson<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

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