{"id":17323,"date":"2015-12-09T11:18:40","date_gmt":"2015-12-09T11:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?page_id=17323"},"modified":"2024-08-14T10:21:20","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T09:21:20","slug":"umfula","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/umfula\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty reduction in models for understanding development (UMFULA)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Economic growth in Central and Southern Africa is occurring against a backdrop of high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, but with relatively low capacity for adaptation. Major infrastructural investments with 5-40 year lifetimes are being planned and implemented in the region – many in the absence of climate information. Ensuring they are viable in a changing climate is essential, yet decision-makers face significant challenges in assessing how climate change affects investment decisions. UMFULA’s overarching aims are to address critical knowledge gaps in the understanding of the region’s climate and communicate effectively climate information to decision-makers; both are crucial to enable climate resilient development in Central and Southern Africa.<\/p>\n

UMFULA (‘river’ in Zulu) is an international research project led by the Grantham Research Institute that aims to address critical knowledge gaps in the understanding of the region’s climate and communicate effectively climate information to decision-makers; both are crucial to enable climate resilient development in Central and Southern Africa.<\/p>\n

Case studies<\/h3>\n

The project team works in collaboration with stakeholders in Tanzania and Malawi, both at national level and local level in the Rufiji River Basin and the Shire River Basin, to apply the research findings in local decision-making contexts and inform the design of a transferable approach to integration of climate services for decision-making.<\/p>\n

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The Rufiji <\/strong>produces half of Tanzania’s river flow, supplies water for 4.5 million people and generates 80% of the country’s hydropower. Multiple stakeholders within the river basin are currently planning major medium to long-term investments, such as the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania and the Rufiji Hydropower Project at Stiegler’s Gorge, to meet the government’s development plan. These developments, together with increasing demands on water resources within the context of a changing climate, will affect key water-using sectors, involving important trade-offs among water uses.<\/p>\n

The Lake Malawi Shire River Basin <\/strong>covers most of Malawi, and Lake Malawi outflows into the Shire River are critical to support major elements of Malawi’s economy and biodiversity – hydropower, irrigation and environmental flows. As for Tanzania, important trade-offs will have to be made across sectoral water requirements of agriculture, energy and the environment.<\/p>\n

A synthesis brief<\/a> distils the main findings of the research across climate science, climate impacts and decision-making processes for adaptation in central and southern Africa.<\/p>\n

Main lessons from the brief<\/h3>\n