{"id":91105,"date":"2026-10-06T11:06:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:06:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=news&p=91105"},"modified":"2026-10-06T11:41:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:41:25","slug":"smaller-quotas-a-higher-penalty-and-a-carbon-price-what-the-eus-new-steel-regime-means-for-india","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/news\/smaller-quotas-a-higher-penalty-and-a-carbon-price-what-the-eus-new-steel-regime-means-for-india\/","title":{"rendered":"What the EU\u2019s new steel regime means for India: smaller quotas, a higher penalty and a carbon price"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As new rules on importing steel into the EU take effect, Sangeeth Selvaraju and Jesse Scott explore the implications for India, and whether the new regime will support the low-carbon transition or simply ration market access.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From July this year, India has had its steel quota into the EU reduced by 30%. Once the reduced quota is reached any further steel imports into the EU must pay a 50% penalty duty. These new steel tariff-rate quotas arrive in the same year that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) begins to ensure the price of carbon-intensive imports, including steel, reflects their embedded carbon emissions: the aim being to ensure fairness for EU manufactures and to encourage cleaner industrial production in countries outside the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short run, the reduced quotas are likely to bite Indian steel exporters harder than CBAM. Policymakers in India and the EU should view these instruments as a steel trade package and adjust their use accordingly, since each policy’s impact is not felt in isolation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Commission positions the new tariff-rate quotas as a response to global overcapacity in steel, and they sit under the EU’s new Steel Overcapacity Regulation<\/path><\/svg><\/a>, which replaces quota rules that have governed EU steel imports since 2019. Under the new rules, each country supplying steel to the EU receives a specific quota for each of 26 different steel product categories, with quotas released in quarterly tranches. Imports that fall within a country’s quarterly ceiling pay the ordinary customs duty; once the ceiling is reached, further imports in that quarter must pay a 50% out-of-quota duty. For 2026\/27 only, any unused volume carries over from one quarter to the next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU has almost halved the steel quota and doubled the penalty<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Across all 26 steel product categories, the crucial change from past practice is that the total annual quota has fallen from 33.8 million tonnes in 2025\/26 to 18.3 million tonnes in 2026\/27, a cut of 46%. Alongside this tightening, the out-of-quota penalty duty has doubled, from 25% to 50%. The regulation also updates the overall framework: it grants dedicated quotas to more countries, and India has gained five new product categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India’s established export lines face a cut of more than 40%<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In detail, the new rules mean India’s country-specific steel quota has fallen from 2.79 million tonnes to 1.94 million tonnes, a 30% reduction from India’s 2.4 million tonnes of steel exports to the EU in 2025<\/path><\/svg><\/a>. These headline figures actually understate the adjustment: excluding the five newly added product categories (total 313,000 tonnes), India’s quota in the 11 categories it held under both the old and new regimes is cut by 41.5%. The quota for hot-rolled steel sheets and strips, India’s largest export line to the EU and the product in which it competes most directly with EU producers, is cut by 34%. The cold-rolled sheets quota is cut by 59%. Of course, India is not the only country affected. India fares better than many others: because the total global quota for steel imports to the EU has been sharply reduced, India’s share of the total quota has actually risen from 8.2% to 10.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Add up the numbers, and the outcome is not improved EU market access for Indian steel exporters. In aggregate, India can ship less steel before paying a higher penalty.<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

India is far from the worst affected country (Figure 1). Switzerland, China and the UK have each lost around two-thirds of their quota, while Korea and Türkiye saw smaller cuts of 19% and 27% respectively, reflecting their shares of the 2022\/24 imports on which the new quotas are based. In contrast, Taiwan gained 39% in its steel quota.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1. EU steel quota of the 10 largest quota holders, 2025\/26 and 2026\/27<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source:<\/strong> Authors’ calculations using Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/612 (Annex IV.1) and Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026\/1457 (Annex I)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The open residual pool has become smaller and more crowded, and FTAs more important<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Under the previous EU quota regime, a fallback mechanism provided a single residual ‘other countries’ quota pool, so that any country without its own steel quota could trade into the EU on a first-come, first-served basis. Until now, this pool was worth 13 million tonnes, or 39% of the EU’s total steel quota: it was larger than India’s entire 2025\/26 quota, and it was the main route into the EU for some exporters, including Vietnam and Egypt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On our reading of the new regulation, the residual pool component now shrinks to 3.3 million tonnes (18% of the total) and is split three ways (Figure 2). A 1.6 million tonne competitive pool is open to free trade agreement (FTA) partners that have used up their own quota; this category will include India as soon as the EU-India FTA comes into force. A 0.9 million tonne residual most favoured nation (MFN) pool is open to any country without its own quota, offered on the standard terms the EU extends to all World Trade Organization members. A 0.7 million tonne residual pool serves FTA partners without their own quota. Additionally, each country-specific quota is itself divided into an MFN part and, for FTA partners, an FTA part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For India, this cuts both ways. Part of India’s country quota sits in an FTA part, shielded from competitors without an FTA, such as China. India could also draw on the FTA competitive pool once its own quota runs out, although it is unclear whether it would compete there with the EU’s 76 other FTA partners listed in the regulation. Either way, the fallback matters far less than before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2. Composition of the EU steel quota by type of pool, 2025\/26 and 2026\/27<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note:<\/strong> The 2026\/27 split reflects the authors’ interpretation of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026\/1457
Source:<\/strong> Authors’ calculations using Commission Implementing Regulations (EU) 2025\/612 and (EU) 2026\/1457<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steel quotas and CBAM compound each other<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

These reduced steel quotas and the CBAM coincide, creating a compounding effect. From the start of 2026, importers of steel into the EU have been liable for the emissions embedded in their imports at a rate calculated per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the quota, CBAM is a phase-in process. The first CBAM carbon certificates are already being collected to cover 2026 imports, although certificate submissions are not due until 30 September 2027. The carbon charge in 2026 starts low but will rise as free allowances to domestic European steel producers under the EU Emissions Trading System are phased out over the 2030s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Indian producers, who rely heavily on blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace production with an emissions intensity well above the EU benchmark, the effects stack up: a smaller steel quota, a higher penalty for exceeding it, and a carbon cost likely to become material within five years or less.<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

India and the EU should manage steel trade as one package<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This leaves India with three priorities. First, because the steel quota is filled on a first-come, first-served basis, Indian exporters risk racing each other to fill each quarter’s quota. The Ministry of Steel and industry bodies could monitor quota take-up and coordinate shipments so that steel imports are not inadvertently scheduled in weeks when they will pay the high out-of-quota penalty duty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, steel producers need to be able to provide monitored, verified and reported (MRV) plant-level emissions data to CBAM. If they do not provide this data, CBAM will assign default values, which are also penalising, and will become more costly over time. Aligning monitoring and reporting under India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme with CBAM requirements would help reduce the complexity of this compliance process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, realistically, the trend is clear: Indian steel exporters should plan for a smaller EU market. India needs to diversify its export destinations, while recognising that lower-carbon steel production will be the best route back into the EU market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the EU, the situation also raises problems because the quota regime risks undermining CBAM’s aims of encouraging cleaner industrial production outside the EU. Quota allocations based on 2022–24 import shares reward past volumes of steel; a new Indian producer that invests in lower-carbon steel therefore gains no additional access. When setting allocations beyond December 2026, the European Commission should consider whether quota treatment could reflect verified emissions intensity. It should also address the tariff-rate quotas, CBAM and the steel provisions of the EU–India FTA together as the trade agreement moves towards coming into force, likely in the first half of 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joined-up strategies?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Both the EU and India have added new steel trade measures in recent years, from EU restrictions on steel scrap exports to countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, to India’s quality control orders on steel. Policymakers on both sides should assess the combined effect of an increasingly long list of trade and standard-setting measures on large and small steelmakers, ultimately focusing on how such policies impact the business case for investing in decarbonisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU strategy of using volume quotas together with a carbon price to manage imports of carbon-intensive products may not remain confined to steel. Aluminium, cement and fertilisers are also covered by CBAM. And there are similar concerns about global overcapacity of aluminium, in particular. Exporters in these sectors from India and other emerging markets should expect CBAM to be one of several border policy measures they will face. The question for India and the EU is whether steel trade rules will reward the transition to lower carbon products or simply ration access to markets; getting this answer right for steel will shape the template for other carbon-intensive industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

The authors thank Isabel Lara Miranda of CETEx and Ignacio Bercero of Bruegel for their comments on this commentary. AI was used to extract data and make charts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

As new rules on importing steel into the EU take effect, Sangeeth Selvaraju and Jesse Scott explore the implications for India.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":91103,"template":"","tags":[4463,2063,175,210,987],"news-category":[16],"topic_area":[4694,4706],"class_list":["post-91105","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-carbon-accounting","tag-cbam","tag-eu-policy","tag-india","tag-steel","news-category-20-commentary","topic_area-policy-evaluation","topic_area-major-emitting-countries"],"acf":{"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"show_translations_widget":{"ref_value":"field_6203d588c41e8","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":false,"type":"repeater","post_type":""},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["sangeeth-raja","jesse-scott"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"article_link":{"ref_value":"field_52eee3c7f0586","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"article_link_title":{"ref_value":"field_5322399d89d42","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\nWhat the EU\u2019s new steel regime means for India: smaller quotas, a higher penalty and a carbon price - 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