{"id":86811,"date":"2026-06-22T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T23:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=news&p=86811"},"modified":"2026-06-22T08:18:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T07:18:06","slug":"over-1-trillion-of-annual-gdp-in-europe-china-and-usa-depends-on-rainfall-linked-to-forest-ecosystems-that-are-too-big-to-fail-report-finds","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/news\/over-1-trillion-of-annual-gdp-in-europe-china-and-usa-depends-on-rainfall-linked-to-forest-ecosystems-that-are-too-big-to-fail-report-finds\/","title":{"rendered":"Over $1 trillion of annual GDP in\u00a0Europe,\u00a0China and USA depends on rainfall\u00a0linked to\u00a0forest\u00a0ecosystems that are \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d, report finds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Many countries may face growing economic risks associated with the degradation of forests and other critical natural systems, according to new research released today<\/path><\/svg><\/a> (19 June 2026) by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors present new evidence illustrating the scale of these dependencies, including the role of forests in sustaining rainfall and economic activity. Their findings suggest that over $1 trillion of annual GDP in Europe, China and USA depends on forest-linked rainfall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study provides an economic and financial lens that aims to complement the UK Government’s recent national security assessmenton Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, <\/em>by making the macroeconomic case for the protection and restoration of national and global ‘critical natural systems’ and outlining the potential policy and investment pathways. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They estimate that, across more than 130 countries, the direct economic dependencies on ‘green water’ from forests alone exceed US$5 trillion, and upstream supply-chain dependencies reach almost US$3 trillion. These functions are in addition to the many other ecosystem services provided by forests, including timber production, climate regulation, water purification, air-quality enhancement and flood mitigation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors argue that some ecosystems – such as major rivers and lakes, coral reefs and biodiversity hotspots – act as critical national infrastructure and are as vital to national resilience and prosperity as road, rail and energy networks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors propose a new concept of Systemically Important Natural Systems (SINS) – natural systems whose degradation would pose serious risks to economic and financial stability, either globally (‘G-SINS’) or domestically (‘D-SINS’). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The framing intentionally echoes Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs), designated as ‘too big to fail’ after the 2008 financial crisis. The authors argue that like the G-SIBs, the SINS are sufficiently important to system stability that their degradation warrants enhanced monitoring, governance and risk management. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors argue that recent global price shocks – from energy to fertilisers, which surged by at least 21% in early 2026 amid Middle East supply disruptions – illustrate how quickly they can cascade through interconnected economies, and warn that the degradation of critical natural systems represents a further, currently unmanaged, source of this kind of volatility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It presents analysis that suggests that deforestation in major cocoa-producing regions may be a driver of higher cocoa prices in importing countries, illustrating one pathway through which ecosystem degradation could affect inflation and the cost of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critical natural systems that could meet the criteria for SINS-designation could include tropical forests in Indonesia and New Guinea, the Amazon countries and the Congo Basin, boreal forests in the north, coral reefs in the Coral Triangle and Great Barrier Reef, the major food ‘breadbasket’ regions and equivalents for rice and other key stable crops. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors note that D-SINS designation could start at the country level and be implemented by countries themselves, for example, Lake Sevan in Armenia – host of the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity this year – which is the largest freshwater lake in the Caucasus, supplying 40% of the country’s surface freshwater and generating close to $400 million in annual economic value. The lake currently faces degradation from over-abstraction and pollution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nicola Ranger, Professor in Practice at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Executive Director of Earth Capital Nexus at the London School of Economics and Political Science<\/strong>, said: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“<\/strong>The challenge is not a lack of environmental commitments, but the absence of mechanisms that formally recognise, value and embed the systemic importance of these critical natural systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Just as regulators identified the banks that were too big to fail after 2008, the G-SINS concept offers governments, regulators, corporates and financial institutions one possible framework to identify the ecosystems that are too important to fail – and to put in place the monitoring, investment and risk management needed to close that gap.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thea Philip, Senior Policy Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Earth Capital Nexus at the London School of Economics and Political Science<\/strong>, said: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Our findings illustrate how forest systems perform a critical infrastructure function by sustaining rainfall patterns that support economic activity across countries, sectors and supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“They are as vital to national resilience and prosperity as road, rail and energy networks.”  <\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

Many countries may face growing economic risks associated with the degradation of forests and other critical natural systems, according to new research released today. <\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":63,"featured_media":64428,"template":"","tags":[5082,1047,2235,5043,2250,4646,4223,4992,4181,4494],"news-category":[15],"topic_area":[],"class_list":["post-86811","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-climate-nature-nexus","tag-nature","tag-nature-based-solutions","tag-nature-degradation","tag-nature-loss","tag-nature-restoration","tag-nature-risk","tag-nature-shock","tag-nature-based-solutions-2","tag-nature-related-risks","news-category-10-press-releases"],"acf":{"show_translations_widget":{"ref_value":"field_6203d588c41e8","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"exclude_from_sync":{"ref_value":"field_560538b0e7350","value":"0","type":false,"post_type":""},"spotlight":{"ref_value":"field_52f80896506d3","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""},"downloads":{"ref_value":"field_52f16cc1a80f2","value":false,"type":"repeater","post_type":""},"profile_link":{"ref_value":"field_52f164b5189e9","value":["nicola-ranger","thea-philip"],"type":"relationship","post_type":"profile"},"rss_newsletter":{"ref_value":"field_54f5c2c1544d8","value":"","type":false,"post_type":""}},"yoast_head":"\nOver $1 trillion of annual GDP in\u00a0Europe,\u00a0China and USA depends on rainfall\u00a0linked to\u00a0forest\u00a0ecosystems that are \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d, report finds - 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