{"id":79414,"date":"2025-07-28T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=news&p=79414"},"modified":"2025-07-25T16:00:40","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T15:00:40","slug":"geological-carbon-removal-is-the-uk-ready-to-lead","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/news\/geological-carbon-removal-is-the-uk-ready-to-lead\/","title":{"rendered":"Geological carbon removal: is the UK ready to lead?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The UK has too often failed to capitalise on the opportunities presented by emerging high-innovation, high-productivity sectors – it should ensure it avoids doing the same with carbon removals, writes Josh Burke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alongside rapidly reducing the amount of emissions reaching <\/em>the atmosphere, existing and future carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>) will need to be removed <\/em>to meet global climate goals. Scaling up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a critical challenge, but it could also represent a significant opportunity for the countries that innovate and build competitive supply chains for relevant technologies.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With policymakers increasingly placing economic growth at the centre of discussions on ambitious climate policy, demonstrating that investing in CDR can be growth-inducing may convince them of the benefits of providing greater public-sector support to the sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust estimates of the size of the future economic opportunity from CDR are hard to come by, but recent grey literature suggests it could be large. Some upper-bound estimates suggest the global market for CDR could reach US$100 billion<\/path><\/svg><\/a> a year between 2030 and 2035 (from US$2.7 billion in 2023), and up to US$1.2 trillion<\/path><\/svg><\/a> by 2050. Most of the estimated future value lies in two methods: BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) and DACCS (direct air carbon capture and storage). These are not trivial figures. They suggest the emergence of a major new industrial sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it is worth pointing out that their deployment (alongside other methods) will always incur an additional resource cost relative to not deploying these methods. This contrasts with modular and scalable renewables, which can produce energy more cheaply than alternatives. But the presence of a carbon market, together with the necessity to remove carbon to stabilise the climate and achieve net negativity, can theoretically make them very profitable.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jurisdictions such as the EU and the UK have developed policy positions that recognise the ways that CDR can retain industrial competitiveness and thus benefit their economies. At the same time, early frontrunners in the emerging CDR economy – such as the US – may be squandering their competitive edge, spurring companies to move to less capricious policy environments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, is the UK ready to fill the void? And, critically, should it? David Sainsbury’s capability\/market opportunity dynamic<\/path><\/svg><\/a> provides a framework for identifying sectors where a country can gain global advantage by aligning its strengths with high-growth opportunities and can help us answer these questions.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The capability: where does the UK have innovative specialism? <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sainsbury’s framework starts with capability: the existing scientific, industrial and institutional strengths a country can bring to bear. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On this front, the UK has much going for it with regard to BECCS and DACCS: <\/p>\n\n\n\n