{"id":78952,"date":"2025-06-25T10:46:56","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T09:46:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=news&p=78952"},"modified":"2025-06-25T11:27:48","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T10:27:48","slug":"turning-promises-into-progress-why-ndcs-need-clear-implementation-plans","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/news\/turning-promises-into-progress-why-ndcs-need-clear-implementation-plans\/","title":{"rendered":"Turning promises into progress: why NDCs need clear implementation plans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Countries are lagging behind in submitting their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement – and a major discrepancy remains between climate pledges and projected emission reductions. Tiffanie Chan and Carol Yuen review those that have been submitted to provide insights into how countries plan to bridge this implementation gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) June Climate Meetings are currently underway in Bonn, Germany. This annual mid-year climate conference brings together the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) to advance international negotiations on key climate issues. Often viewed as the halfway point between the annual ‘COPs’ (summits of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC), this year’s meetings are especially significant. Countries are expected to submit updated NDCs – which outline how they plan to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change impacts – as part of the Paris Agreement<\/path><\/svg><\/a>’s ratchet mechanism under Article 4(3). Updated NDCs are required every five years and should reflect increased ambition compared with previous commitments, in line with the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not on track <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But the world is not on track. The original deadline for submitting updated NDCs containing targets for 2035 (known as ‘NDCs 3.0’) was 10 February 2025, but only 13 of 195 parties met<\/path><\/svg><\/a> that deadline. In response, the UNFCCC Secretariat extended the deadline to this September. The extension has been criticised for being a “telling indictment of the blasé attitude towards NDCs to date<\/path><\/svg><\/a>”, but there is also a prime opportunity to change course and step up ambition in the coming months<\/path><\/svg><\/a>. As of 25 June 2025, only 24 parties have submitted their updated NDCs<\/path><\/svg><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2024 Emissions Gap Report <\/path><\/svg><\/a>from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) found that emissions reductions of 42% are needed by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to get on track for 1.5°C. Crucially, the gap is one of implementation as well as ambition. UNEP’s annual ‘gap’ reports repeatedly highlight the implementation gap: the discrepancy between the emissions reductions a country has pledged in its NDC and those projected under its current domestic policies. Countries are still off track to deliver on insufficiently ambitious 2030 NDCs (the previous NDC round).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the spotlight rightly turns towards implementation, we review a selection of submitted NDCs to provide insights on how countries plan to bridge this gap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Communicating credible plans for implementation in NDCs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To be effective, NDCs must be more than ambitious and fair: they must also be credible. NDCs should not be treated merely as a reporting obligation. Preparing an NDC is an opportunity for parties to communicate to other parties and to stakeholders that they are serious about achieving their targets, and that they have a coordinated plan for doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NDCs that embody genuine national transition planning<\/path><\/svg><\/a>, by providing more detail on sectoral pathways, quantified investment needs and supportive policies, are more likely to appear ‘investible’ and attract private finance. Enhancing credibility in NDCs can also generate positive dynamics<\/path><\/svg><\/a> at the international level, building trust between countries and stimulating a virtuous cycle of increased ambition in future negotiations and successive NDCs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, how much detail they include on how domestic policies will meet the international commitments stated in their NDC is largely down to each country. The basic requirements for NDCs include that parties shall provide the ‘Information necessary for Clarity, Transparency and Understanding (ICTU)<\/path><\/svg><\/a>’ (Article 4(8) of the Paris Agreement). This includes: providing information on the base year; time frames for implementation; scope and coverage; planning processes; assumptions and methodological approaches; how the party considers its NDC is fair and ambitious in light of national circumstances; and how the NDC contributes to the objectives of the UNFCCC. But crucially, the ICTU only asks parties to state “information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its NDC and, if available,<\/em> on the Party’s implementation plans” (para 4(a)) (emphasis added) and “specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits” (para 4(d)(ii)).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the basic ICTU requirements, countries do not necessarily communicate a coordinated plan for achieving their targets. The diversity of approaches is evident from even just a cursory look at the submitted 2035 NDCs. Some explicitly name existing domestic policies, some refer to institutions in charge of developing future plans, and some refer only to the intention to introduce future policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below, we present examples to illustrate the various approaches:<\/p>\n\n\n\n