{"id":67363,"date":"2023-08-24T15:10:16","date_gmt":"2023-08-24T14:10:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/?post_type=news&p=67363"},"modified":"2024-08-16T10:19:48","modified_gmt":"2024-08-16T09:19:48","slug":"the-truth-about-londons-ultra-low-emission-zone","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/news\/the-truth-about-londons-ultra-low-emission-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"The truth about London\u2019s Ultra Low Emission Zone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Many politicians and media commentators who are guilty of promoting misinformation about climate policies are also engaged in a propaganda campaign against air pollution policies, particularly the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in London, which is due to be expanded from 29 August 2023. Bob Ward dispels the myths around this policy, explaining its origins, the thinking behind the expansion and the links between air pollution and health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A misinformation campaign about London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone is being led by a small but noisy group whose unscientific and unrepresentative views are being amplified by parts of the media. They are attempting to mislead the public by misrepresenting the threat from air pollution in London and the effectiveness of the ULEZ in combating this problem. Many of the proponents of this misinformation also have a track record of inaccurate claims about climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The published evidence shows clearly that concentrations of air pollution have declined across London due to the ULEZ, but remain above the safe limits set by the World Health Organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are the origins of the ULEZ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The creation of the ULEZ was first announced by Boris Johnson<\/path><\/svg><\/a> in July 2014 when he was the Conservative Mayor of London, and was confirmed in March 2015<\/path><\/svg><\/a> after a consultation<\/path><\/svg><\/a>. It was backed by the then Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron, who also agreed to provide funding to help its implementation. The ULEZ was initially scheduled to take effect in Central London from 7 September 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ULEZ was intended to supplement the Low Emission Zone<\/path><\/svg><\/a> which was introduced in London by Labour Mayor Ken Livingstone in February 2008 to charge heavy diesel vehicles that did not meet minimum standards for emissions of particulate matter. The LEZ was expanded several times and now covers most of Greater London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The March 2015 announcement about the creation of the ULEZ stated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The two pollutants of principal concern in London are particulate matter (PM10<\/sub>) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2<\/sub>). London is now compliant with PM limit values owing to the Low Emission Zone, taxi and private hire vehicle age limits, bus retrofit schemes and the natural turnover of vehicles. However, London is not forecast to meet the legal limits for NO2<\/sub> until after 2030 – alongside Birmingham and Leeds – unless targeted action is taken. Since the Mayor was elected, the number of people living in areas exceeding NO2<\/sub> limits has halved but there is a clear need to take further action. The Greater London Authority (GLA) and TfL [Transport for London] estimate that a reduction in road transport emissions of around 70 per cent is needed for central London to meet EU legal limits for NO2<\/sub> in 2020, with the ULEZ delivering around two-thirds of this.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The intention was to implement a charging system to provide a financial incentive to stop driving the most polluting vehicles in London. To be compliant, diesel-powered cars and small vans would need to meet the Euro 6 standard<\/path><\/svg><\/a> (generally vehicles registered from 1 September 2015) and the Euro 4 standard for cars and small vans with petrol engines (generally vehicles registered from 1 January 2006). The Euro 4 standard for petrol vehicles limits emissions of nitrogen oxides to no more than 80,000 microgrammes per kilometre (µg\/km). The Euro 6 standard for diesel vehicles limits emissions of nitrogen oxides to no more than 80,000 µg\/km, and particulate matter to no more than 5,000 µg\/km.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equivalent minimum standards would apply to other vehicles. Non-compliant vehicles could still drive in the ULEZ but they would be required to pay a daily charge of £12.50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After his election as Mayor of London in May 2016, Sadiq Khan consulted on bringing forward<\/path><\/svg><\/a> the introduction of the ULEZ by a year. It came into effect on 8 April 2019<\/path><\/svg><\/a> and its geographical extent was expanded on 25 October 2021<\/path><\/svg><\/a> to cover the area out to the ring roads around Central London, the North Circular and the South Circular. Mayor Khan announced on 25 November 2022<\/path><\/svg><\/a> that the ULEZ would be extended to the rest of Greater London on 29 August 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How does air pollution harm health?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to the World Health Organization<\/path><\/svg><\/a> (WHO), indoor and outdoor air pollution is associated with more than seven million premature deaths around the world each year. The WHO estimates there were 4.2 million premature death<\/path><\/svg><\/a>s related to outdoor air pollution in 2019: “some 37% of outdoor air pollution-related premature deaths were due to ischaemic heart disease and stroke, 18% and 23% of deaths were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and acute lower respiratory infections respectively, and 11% of deaths were due to cancer within the respiratory tract”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The WHO has published global air quality guidelines<\/path><\/svg><\/a> which set pollution limits for particulate matter (‎PM2.5 <\/sub>and PM10<\/sub>)‎, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide. The latest guidelines<\/path><\/svg><\/a> suggest that annual average levels of nitrogen dioxide should not exceed 10 µg\/m3<\/sup>, with limits of 5 and 15 µg\/m3<\/sup> for PM2.5<\/sub> and PM10<\/sub> respectively. The UK’s current legal targets for air pollution are weaker than the WHO guidelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the UK, the impact of air pollution is estimated by the Government to be equivalent to between 28,000 and 36,000 premature deaths per year<\/path><\/svg><\/a>. This is an estimate because air pollution is not recorded as the cause of death on death certificates – it causes mortality by triggering disease and other health conditions (such as heart disease, stroke and COPD, as described in the WHO quote above). Details of how these impacts are calculated<\/path><\/svg><\/a> are provided by the Committee on the Medical Effect of Air Pollution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers at Imperial College London have estimated the health impacts of air pollution in London<\/path><\/svg><\/a>. They concluded: “In 2019, in Greater London, the equivalent of between 3,600 to 4,100 deaths (61,800 to 70,200 life years lost) were estimated to be attributable to human-made PM2.5 <\/sub>and NO2<\/sub>, considering that health effects exist even at very low levels. This calculation is for deaths from all causes including respiratory, lung cancer and cardiovascular deaths.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Air pollution policy in the UK<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Under current UK legislation<\/path><\/svg><\/a>, the annual average concentration of nitrogen dioxide must be no higher than 40 µg\/m3<\/sup> across a calendar year in every assessed location in each of the 43 air quality reporting zones of the UK. Additionally, an hourly average concentration over 200 µg\/m3<\/sup> must not be reached more than 18 times in a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For PM10<\/sub>, the annual average concentration must be no higher than 40 µg\/m3<\/sup> and an hourly average concentration over 50 µg\/m3<\/sup> must not to be exceeded more than 35 times in a calendar year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For PM2.5<\/sub>, the annual average concentration must be no higher than 25 µg\/m3<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January 2023, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) published its ‘Environmental Improvement Plan 2023<\/path><\/svg><\/a>’, including information about progress on improving air quality. It outlined two legal sets of long-term targets for PM2.5<\/sub>, created by the Environment Act 2021, to be achieved by the end of 2040:<\/p>\n\n\n\n