Volume 59, Part 3, 2005

Authors: Stéphane Helleringer and Hans-Peter Kohler
Title: Social networks, perceptions of risk, and changing attitudes towards HIV/AIDS: New evidence from a longitudinal study using fixed-effects analysis

The study presented here is an investigation of the importance of social interactions to perceptions of the risk of AIDS, and explores spousal communication about the AIDS epidemic in rural Malawi. A fixed-effects analysis based on longitudinal data collected in 1998 and 2001 shows that social interactions on the subject of HIV/AIDS have significant and substantial effects on respondents' perceptions of the risk of HIV/AIDS, even after controlling for unobserved factors that affect the selection of social networks.

These effects are more complex than previously thought. The dominant mechanisms - social learning and social influence - are found to vary by sex and by region, because of regional variations in the marriage pattern and the resulting implications for the formation of local social networks.

The conclusion of the study is that rather than fostering denial and inaction, social interactions are an important vector of change in the face of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; social interactions; risk perceptions; Malawi; unobserved heterogeneity; longitudinal studies
pp. 265-282

Author: Michel Guillot
Title: The momentum of mortality change

Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant.

This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the 'momentum of mortality change'. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e0 (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility.

In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.

Keywords: population momentum; population dynamics; population growth; population decline; mortality decline; cross-sectional average length of life (CAL); cohort mortality
pp. 283-294

Authors: Zachary Zimmer and Julia Dayton
Title: Older adults in sub-Saharan Africa living with children and grandchildren

Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, we examine the composition of households containing older adults in 24 countries of sub-Saharan Africa, with a focus on those living with children and grandchildren. Overall, 59 per cent live with a child and 46 per cent with a grandchild. Men are more likely to live in nuclear households and women in extended households and alone.

Regression analyses show that individual-level determinants of household composition differ by sex. For example, living with children and grandchildren is tied to living with a spouse for men, but for women the effect is either not significant or in the opposite direction. Households with an older adult and a grandchild, but no adult children, are common.

Usually the adult child lives elsewhere, though about 8 per cent of older adults live with a grandchild who has at least one deceased parent. Older adults are more likely to be living with double-orphans in countries with high AIDS-related mortality.

Keywords: Africa; ageing; co-residence; elderly; fostering; grandchildren; household composition; living arrangements; orphans; sub-Saharan Africa
pp. 295-312

Authors: Jan Saarela and Fjalar Finnäs
Title: Mortality inequality in two native population groups

A sample of people aged 40 - 67 years, taken from a longitudinal register compiled by Statistics Finland, is used to analyse mortality differences between Swedish speakers and Finnish speakers in Finland. Finnish speakers are known to have higher death rates than Swedish speakers.

The purpose is to explore whether labour-market experience and partnership status, treated as proxies for measures of variation in health-related characteristics, are related to the mortality differential. Persons who are single, disability pensioners, and those having experienced unemployment are found to have substantially higher death rates than those with a partner and employed persons.

Swedish speakers have a more favourable distribution on both variables, which thus notably helps to reduce the Finnish - Swedish mortality gradient. A conclusion from this study is that future analyses on the topic should focus on mechanisms that bring a greater proportion of Finnish speakers into the groups with poor health or supposed unhealthy behaviour.

Keywords: mortality; risk groups; population groups; unemployment; partnership status
pp. 313-320

Authors: Sören Edvinsson, Anders Brändström, John Rogers and Göran Broström
Title: High-risk families: The unequal distribution of infant mortality in nineteenth-century Sweden

An analysis of infant mortality (based on 133,448 births) in two regions, Sundsvall and Skelleftea , in north-eastern Sweden during the nineteenth century shows that infant mortality was highly clustered with a relatively small number of families accounting for a large proportion of all infant deaths. Using logistic regression, two important factors were found to be associated with high-risk families: (1) a biological component evidenced by an over-representation of women who had experienced stillbirths, and (2) a social component indicated by an increased risk among women who had remarried. The results strengthen the argument for using the family rather than the single child as the unit of analysis. The clustering of infant deaths points to the need to re-evaluate our interpretations of the causes of infant mortality in the past.

Keywords: historical demography; Sweden; nineteenth century; infant mortality; high-risk families; death clustering
pp. 321-337

Author: Scott T. Yabiku
Title: The effect of non-family experiences on age of marriage in a setting of rapid social change

This study examines the changing effects of non-family activities on the age of transition to first marriage in four cohorts of individuals across 45 years in the Chitwan Valley, Nepal.

The results indicate that school enrolment had a negative effect on both men's and women's marriage rates, while total years of schooling had a positive effect on men's marriage rates. Non-family employment experiences increased marriage rates for men only. Analysing the effects of schooling and employment over time suggests that school enrolment became a growing deterrent to marriage for both sexes, and that non-family employment became an increasingly desirable attribute in men.

The results are consistent with changing views about sex roles and schooling over time in the region, as the roles of student and spouse became more distinct. The results also suggest an increasing integration of husbands in the non-family labour market.

Keywords: social change; family; household; marriage; Nepal; educational status; school; employment
pp. 339-354

Authors: John Blacker, Collins Opiyo, Momodou Jasseh, Andy Sloggett and John Ssekamatte-Ssebuliba
Title: Fertility in Kenya and Uganda: A comparative study of trends and determinants

Between 1980 and 2000 total fertility in Kenya fell by about 40 per cent, from some eight births per woman to around five. During the same period, fertility in Uganda declined by less than 10 per cent. An analysis of the proximate determinants shows that the difference was due primarily to greater contraceptive use in Kenya, though in Uganda there was also a reduction in pathological sterility.

The Demographic and Health Surveys show that women in Kenya wanted fewer children than those in Uganda, but that in Uganda there was also a greater unmet need for contraception. We suggest that these differences may be attributed, in part at least, first, to the divergent paths of economic development followed by the two countries after Independence; and, second, to the Kenya Government's active promotion of family planning through the health services, which the Uganda Government did not promote until 1995.

Keywords: fertility decline; Kenya; Uganda; contraceptive use
pp. 355-373

Authors: Hendrik P. van Dalen, George Groenewold and Tineke Fokkema
Title: The effect of remittances on emigration intentions in Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey

Are remittances determined by altruism or enlightened self-interest, and do they trigger additional migration? In this paper these two questions are examined empirically in relation to data from Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco for households with family members living abroad.

It is shown, firstly, that one cannot argue exclusively either for altruism or self-interest as motives, since for each country the data tell a different story and both motives can be identified as driving forces behind remittance behaviour. The general conclusion of this study is that the family ties and the net earnings potential of migrants have stronger effects on the flow of remittances than the net earnings potential of the households in the country of origin.

Secondly, because the receipt of remittances has a positive effect on the emigration intentions of household members still living in the country of origin, the receipt of remittances may contribute to new flows of migration, particularly in the case of Morocco.

Keywords: remittances; migration; intentions; networks; altruism; self-interest; households; development
pp. 375-392