Volume 58, Part 2, 2004

Authors: E. A. Hammel and Aaron Gullickson
Title: Kinship structures and survival: Maternal mortality on the Croatian-Bosnian border 1750-1898

This is an analysis of maternal survival of up to 13,202 mothers following 56,546 births in south central Slavonia (Croatia) in the period 1714-1898, using automated family reconstitution of 23,307 marriages, 112,181 baptisms, and 94,077 burials from seven contiguous Catholic parishes.

Physiological factors have the effects commonly expected. Maternal risk is increased by general economic and social conditions that are plausibly related to withdrawal of men's labour from family farming as a result of military mobilizations and growing levels of wage labour. Risk is decreased by membership in large patriarchal kin groups, but is increased by both the presence of classic rivals (husband's brothers' wives) and being married to a husband junior among his brothers.

The analysis demonstrates the sensitivity of maternal survival to macrolevel changes in such factors as the collapse of feudalism, military involvement, economic stagnation, and monetization, as well as to microeconomic and micropolitical factors at the household and local kin-group level.

Keywords: Maternal Mortality, Historical Demography, Patriarchy, Kinship, Networks, Feudalism, Croatia, Slavonia
pp. 145-159

Authors: Francesco C. Billari and Hans-Peter Kohler
Title: Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe

In this paper we conduct descriptive aggregate analyses to revisit the relationship of low and lowest-low period fertility to cohort fertility and key fertility-related behaviour such as leaving the parental home, marriage, and women's labour force participation. Our analyses show that the cross-country correlations in Europe between total fertility and the total first marriage rate, the proportion of extramarital births, and the labour force participation of women reversed during the period from 1975 to 1999.

By the end of the 1990s there was also no longer evidence that divorce levels were negatively associated with fertility levels. We argue that lowest-low fertility has been particularly associated with a 'falling behind' of cohort fertility at higher birth orders and later ages. From these analyses we conclude that the emergence of lowest-low fertility during the 1990s was accompanied by a disruption or even a reversal of many well-known relationships that have been used to explain cross-country differences in fertility patterns.

Keywords: Low Fertility, Marriage, Labour Force Participation, Cohort Fertility, Europe, Convergence
pp. 161-176

Author: Øystein Kravdal
Title: Child mortality in India: The community-level effect of education

When assessing the health benefits of increased education in less developed countries, many researchers have been concerned about the omission of important determinants of an individual's education from the models.

The study presented here shows that one should also be concerned about the limitations of the individual-level perspective. According to a multilevel discrete-time hazard model estimated with data from the National Family Health Survey II, the average education of women in a census enumeration area has a strong impact on child mortality, in addition to the effect of the mother's own education.

The lower child mortality associated with women's autonomy is taken into account in this estimation. Results from similar models for various health and health-care variables suggest that the effect of community education, like that of individual education, operates through the use of maternity services and other preventive health services, the child's nutrition, and the mother's care for a sick child.

Keywords: Autonomy, Care, Child, Community, Education, Health, Mortality, Multilevel
pp. 177-192

Authors: Warren B. Miller, Lawrence J. Severy and David J. Pasta
Title: A framework for modelling fertility motivation in couples

We present a theoretical framework that organizes individual-level fertility motivations into a couple-level model. One feature of this framework is the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour (TDIB) sequence through which the fertility motivations of individuals produce instrumental behaviours that are designed to promote or prevent childbearing. A second feature of this framework is the cognitive capacity of individuals to perceive a partner's motivational structure.

We combine these two features into a dyad-level model that addresses interactions between partners at each step of the motivational sequence. We elaborate this model first with respect to the perception of partner's motivational structure and second with respect to the combination of partner's and own motivational structure. In the process we consider how couple-level processes of communication, influence, and disagreement can be measured and studied through these interactions.

We conclude with a summary discussion of the framework and a consideration of the implications it has for a theory of reproductive psychology, population surveys, and family planning services

Keywords: Fertility, Motivational Traits, Desires, Perceived Desires, Intentions, Cohabitational Composite, Couple, Dyadic Model
pp. 193-205

Authors: Nicholas C. Grassly, James J. C. Lewis, Mary Mahy, Neff Walker and Ian M. Timæus
Title: Comparison of household-survey estimates with projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of HIV/AIDS

The United Nations publishes estimates of HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality, and orphan numbers for all countries of the world. It is important to assess the validity of these model-based estimates since they underpin much policy concerned with care and prevention. Household surveys that ask questions about the survival of children's parents (orphanhood) offer an independent source of data with which these estimates can be compared.

Survey estimates of maternal and paternal orphans are significantly lower than model estimates for 40 surveys in 36 countries of sub-Saharan Africa (p < 0.001, p = 0.002). This is probably because adult mortality from causes other than AIDS is lower than assumed in the models, although under-reporting of orphanhood in surveys may also play a role. Reducing adult mortality from causes other than AIDS brings the model estimates into close agreement with the surveys.

This suggests that the fraction of orphans attributable to AIDS is greater than estimated previously

Keywords: AIDS, Orphans, Mortality, Surveys, Population Projection
pp. 207-217

Authors: Eric R. Jensen and Dennis A. Ahlburg
Title: Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines

We model the impact of past migration on fertility, assessing the separate effects of relative urbanization of the destination, as a proxy for norms, and post-migration employment, as a proxy for opportunity costs. In the Philippines, we find that large fertility declines accompany post-migration employment. If not followed by work for pay, the estimated fertility impact of migration is small. We find little evidence of migrant selectivity in fertility, and offer speculative evidence that fertility disruption accompanying migration may be large enough to account for much of the apparent effect of normative adaptation.

Keywords: Migration, Fertility, Philippines, Adaptation, Selection, Disruption
pp. 219-231

Author: Philip Verwimp
Title: Death and survival during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda

This paper reports a quantitative study of the genocide in the prefecture of Kibuye in western Rwanda in 1994. It uses a database produced from a house-to-house survey of victims by the organization of genocide survivors, Ibuka. For a total of 59,050 victims of the genocide, data were collected on age, sex, occupation, commune of residence before the genocide, and place and date of death. An analysis conducted for one commune (Mabanza), showed that the chance of surviving the genocide was higher in those sectors of the commune where the Tutsi population did not congregate at a football stadium in Kibuye. Those who went to a mountainous area and defended themselves were almost the only Tutsi still alive in the prefecture after the month of April 1994. Other determinants of survival included age, sex, and occupation. The number of deaths each day while the killing lasted is estimated for the whole of the prefecture.

Keywords: Genocide, Massacre, Mortality, Survival, Africa, Rwanda
pp. 233-245