Volume 56, Part 3, 2002

Authors: M. Murphy and L.B. Knudsen
Title: The intergenerational transmission of fertility in contemporary Denmark: The effects of number of siblings (full and half), birth order, and whether male or female

Using the Danish Fertility Database, we investigate intergenerational fertility transmission, including the relationship between the number of children born to those aged 25 and 26 years in 1994 and the number of their full sibs and half-sibs. We find that the fertility behaviour of parents and their children is positively correlated, and that half-sibs and full sibs have broadly similar effects. We do not find, in this complete national population, the strong birth order effects reported in some earlier studies. Nor do we find evidence of a weakening of intergenerational fertility transmission over time, perhaps because the greater flexibility of lifestyles in this post-transitional phase provides the extended social space within which intergenerational continuities can manifest themselves. We show that members of large families are over-represented in subsequent generations - that they have far more kin than those from smaller families - and that intergenerational continuities in fertility behaviour play a substantial role in keeping fertility higher than it would be in the absence of such transmission.  
pp. 235-248

Authors: Jacques Vallin, France Meslé, Serguei Adamets and Serhii Pyrozhkov
Title: A new estimate of Ukrainian population losses during the crises of the 1930s and 1940s

Ukraine experienced two very acute demographic crises during the Soviet era: the 1933 famine and the Second World War. While different estimates of total losses have been produced previously, we have tried here to distinguish the specific impact of the crises on mortality from their impact on fertility and migration. Taking into account all existing sources of registered data and estimates, a painstaking reconstruction of annual demographic changes has been produced and complete annual life tables have been computed for the years 1926-59. Life expectancy at birth fell to a level as low as 10 years for females and 7 for males in 1933 and plateaued around 25 for females and 15 for males in the period 1941-44. 
pp. 249-264

Authors: Zachary Zimmer, Linda G. Martin and Ming-Cheng Chang
Title: Changes in functional limitation and survival among older Taiwanese, 1933, 1996, and 1999

Using data from the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan, we investigate changes in difficulties in walking and climbing stairs, tasks that represent basic lower-body movements less likely to be influenced by changes in environment and social roles than are activities and instrumental activities of daily living. Results are shown for unadjusted prevalence rates and rates adjusted for changes in population composition. The findings indicate that Taiwan does not appear to be experiencing the improvements in functioning witnessed recently in the Unites States. Prevalence of functional limitation increased between 1993 and 1996 and between 1996 and 1999. One possible reason is the change in old-age survival, which appears to have benefited those who have functional limitations, especially in a severe form. The Universal Health Insurance programme, established in 1995, may have increased access to care and thus the survival of those in poorest health
pp. 265-276                                                                              .                                                                                                                                                                   Authors: Frans van Poppel, Jona Schellekens and Aart C. Liefbroer
Title: Religious differentials in infant and child mortality in Holland, 1855-1912

At least three kinds of hypothesis may be invoked to interpret religious differentials in mortality. They are (i) hypotheses that refer to characteristics, (ii) those that refer to lifestyle, and (iii) those that refer to the social isolation of minorities. This paper tests all three kinds of hypothesis using data on urban child mortality from The Hague just before and during the demographic transition. A hazard analysis suggests that economic and demographic characteristics do not account for much of the variation by religion. An analysis of seasonal mortality suggests that some of the variation may be explained by differences in lifestyle. The third kind of hypothesis is presented here for the first time. We suggest that the social isolation of small religious groups lowered their exposure to certain kinds of infectious diseases. We use a simulation study to show that this hypothesis could account for part of the variation 
pp. 277-289   

Authors: Benjamin Davis, Guy Stecklov and Paul Winters
Title: Domestic and international migration from rural Mexico: Disaggregating the effects of network structure and composition

This article explores the role of migrant networks in Mexican rural out-migration, focusing on how network composition influences rural-to-rural, rural-to-urban, and rural-to-international migration. Using data from rural Mexico, migration is considered in a multiple-choice context that allows for the possibility that rural Mexicans can migrate within Mexico, for agricultural and non-agricultural employment, as well as to the United States. The use of disaggregated measures of migrant networks highlights the complexity of network effects on migration decisions. When modelling the migration choice with aggregate measures, US migrant networks appear more important than migrant networks in Mexico. Once networks are disaggregated, however, certain types of migrant networks in Mexico become very important in the decision to migrate within the country. Further, the impact of migrant networks on the decision to migrate varies with the closeness of the bond: the closer the bond, the greater the impact on the migration decision 
pp. 291-309

Authors: Eliya Msiyaphhazi Zulu, F. Nii-Amoo Dodoo and Alex Chika-Ezeh
Title: Sexual risk-taking in the slums of Nairobi, Kenya, 1993-98

Relatively less attention has been paid to reproductive health problems facing deprived urban residents than to those facing rural residents in sub-Saharan Africa. This is probably because the majority of Africans live in rural areas, where they are presumed to have poorer medical, educational, and other social services. Yet, the unprecedented rate of urbanization and the accompanying disproportionate growth in the proportion of poor city residents pose new challenges for health care in the region. This study examines differences in sexual behaviour between slum residents and non-slum residents in Nairobi city. The results show that slum residents start sexual intercourse at earlier ages, have more sexual partners, and are less likely than other city residents to know of or adopt preventive measures against contracting HIV/AIDS. The findings highlight the need to treat slum residents as a subpopulation uniquely vulnerable to reproductive health problems, and to expend more resources in slum settings. . 
pp. 311-323

Authors: Heather Booth, John Maindonald and Len Smith
Title: Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline

The Lee-Carter method of mortality forecasting assumes an invariant age component and most applications have adopted a linear time component. The use of the method with Australian data is compromised by significant departures from linearity in the time component and changes over time in the age component. We modify the method to adjust the time component to reproduce the age distribution of deaths, rather than total deaths, and to determine the optimal fitting period in order to address non-linearity in the time component. In the Australian case the modification has the added advantage that the assumption of invariance is better met. For Australian data, the modifications result in higher forecast life expectancy than the original Lee-Carter method and official projections, and a 50 per cent reduction in forecast error. The model is also expanded to take account of age-time interactions by incorporating additional terms, but these are not readily incorporated into forecasts.
pp. 325-336