Volume 56, Part 1, 2002

Authors: Mark Spoerer and Jochen Fleischhacker
Title: The compensation of Nazi Germany's forced labourers: Demographic findings and political implications

The debate on financial compensation for former forced labourers in Nazi Germany has raised the question of how many victims are still alive and eligible for compensation. Historical research has so far focused on qualitative aspects of the forced labour system. There are at best ad hoc estimates even for the number of foreign labourers in Nazi Germany during the war. We combine Nazi statistics with post-war demographic data for 20 countries to estimate the number of victims still alive. We then compare our estimates of survivors in mid-2000 with the numbers compensated under the German compensation settlement of July 2000. Although all parties involved in the settlement say that the compensation should benefit those victim groups most discriminated against in Nazi Germany, we find that the actual distribution of compensation payments is strongly influenced by bargaining power and political preferences.
pp. 5-22

Author: P.N. Mari Bhat  
Title: General growth balance method: A reformulation for populations open to migration

This paper proposes a reformulation of the general growth balance method for estimating census and registration completeness so as to make it applicable even to populations that are affected by migration. It also discusses a new procedure of line fitting that could be useful in countries where the input data are severely affected by age misreporting. The method is applicable to countries where data on age distribution of the population are available for two points in time from either censuses or surveys. Following closely the original proposal of Brass, it involves adjusting the 'partial' birth rates for age-specific disturbances from growth and migration rates. Beyond correcting the death rates, the method is useful in inferring the relative completeness of the censuses, and in deriving a robust estimate of birth rate under certain conditions. The application of the method is illustrated using the example of the male population of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh for the period 1981 to 1991.
pp. 23-34

Authors: John C. Brown and Timothy W. Guinnane
Title: Fertility transition in a rural, Catholic population: Bavaria, 1880-1910

The decline of human fertility that occurred in Europe and North America in the nineteenth century, and elsewhere in the twentieth, remains a topic of debate largely because there is no accepted explanation for the event. This paper uses district-level data from Bavaria to study the correlates of the decline of fertility in that German kingdom in the nineteenth century. Bavaria's fertility transition was later and less dramatic than in other parts of Germany. Our results for Bavaria indicate that the European Fertility Project was right about the role of religion and secularization, but missed an important role for the economic and structural effects stressed by economic historians.                                                                                                                                                             pp. 35-50

Author: Michel Guillot
Title: The dynamics of the population sex ratio in India, 1971-96 

This paper reconstructs the trend in the population sex ratio in India between 1971 and 1996 from available information on changes in sex differentials in mortality in the country since the beginning of the century. It is estimated that, although the mortality of females relative to that of males in India has improved since 1968, the population sex ratio increased between 1971 and 1981, stayed constant between 1981 and 1991, and started to decrease only after 1991. This implies that the recorded decrease and increase in the periods 1971-81 and 1981-91 respectively were both spurious and were the results of undercounts of females in 1971 and 1991. Another implication of this finding is that, owing to the lagged effect of past mortality on current trends in the population sex ratio, this ratio is a bad proxy for use in the study of changes in differential mortality by sex.
pp. 51-63

Author: Violetta Hionidou
Title: Why do people die in famines? Evidence from three island populations

There is surprisingly little consensus about what people die of during famines. In this paper, the causes of the increases in mortality during the Greek famine of 1941-43 are examined. The focus of the study is three island populations: Syros, Hios, and Mykonos. Death registration for these islands was not disrupted during the famine and the records give cause of death, certified by a doctor. Archival material and hospital records are utilized to assess public health during the famine. The findings point to the overwhelming importance of starvation for increased mortality during the famine and the virtual absence of either significant epidemics of infectious diseases or a breakdown in the public health system. The paper concludes by comparing the findings for the Greek famine with those for other famines. A model that attempts to explain the different courses that famine mortality can take is proposed.. 
pp. 65-80

Authors: Kenneth A. Bollen, Jennifer L. Glanville and Guy Stecklov
Title: Economic status proxies in studies of fertility in developing countries: Does the measure matter?

This paper investigates the consequences of using different economic status proxies on the estimated impact of economic status and other determinants of fertility. Using micro survey data from Ghana and Peru, we find that the proxies for income that best predict fertility are a principal components score of the ownership of consumer durable goods and a simple sum of ownership of these durable goods. Furthermore, the choice of the proxy generally has a minor influence on the predicted effects of the control variables.

We compare the results from using a restricted set of proxies, such as those available in the Demographic and Health Surveys, with the results obtained using a lengthier set of proxies. Our results suggest implications beyond fertility analyses by providing researchers with an awareness of the sensitivity of microanalyses to the treatment of economic status.

Our results also suggest practical recommendations for the collection of survey data.
pp. 81-96

Author:  Peter J. Donaldson
Title: The elimination of contraceptive acceptor targets and the evolution of population policy in India

In 1996 the government of India announced a new national population policy that eliminated numerical targets for new contraceptive acceptors.

This paper examines the history of target setting in India and factors that led to the elimination of targets. The analysis is based on published and unpublished reports on India's population policy and the family planning programme and interviews with senior Indian and foreign officials and population specialists.

Five factors are identified as playing a role in the evolution from target setting to a target-free policy: (1) the research of India's academics; (2) the work of women's health advocates; (3) the support of officials in the state bureaucracy who approved the target-free approach; (4) the influence of the donors to India's family planning programme, especially the World Bank; and (5) the International Conference on Population and Development.
pp. 97-110