Volume 52, Part 1, 1998

Author Michael Anderson
Fertility decline in Scotland, England and Wales, and Ireland: comparisons from the 1911 census of fertility

Data on family size by year of marriage, age at marriage, and duration of marriage, from the 1911 Fertility Census, are compared between Scotland, England and Wales, Irish county boroughs, and the rest of Ireland. While means show significant inter-country differences, from the 1880s marked similarities are found across the countries in the pattern of fertility decline, strongly suggesting significant fertility limitation in rural Ireland well before 1911. Noting the implications for the use of rural Ireland as a natural fertility population, the data are instead compared with the Coale-Trussell and Hinde-Woods schedules.

The former provides more plausible results, which imply strong period rather than cohort effects in the fertility decline. Except in rural Ireland, little evidence is found for significant fertility limitation early in marriage among younger marrying couples, but many older marrying couples appear to have stopped childbearing at very low parities from an early date.
pp. 1-20

Author Anastasia J Gage
Premarital childbearing, unwanted fertility and maternity care in Kenya and Namibia

Analysis of data from the 1993 Kenya and 1992 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys shows that premarital childbearing is an important risk factor for the under-utilisation of maternity care. In both countries, women with premarital births are significantly less likely than those with marital births to seek prenatal care in the first trimester.

This relationship is not explained by wantedness or maternal age. Wantedness is not a significant determinant of the timing of the first prenatal visit or the likelihood of institutional delivery, except in Kenya where women are less likely to deliver at a health facility if they are dissatisfied with the timing of the pregnancy.

Ethnicity plays an important role in conditioning the premarital birth effect on prenatal and delivery care. This finding suggests that cultural attitudes may shape the level of kin and social support for unwed mothers and, in so doing, have a direct impact on their perceived barriers to care.
pp. 21-34

Authors Jan Ondrich and C Katharina Spiess
Care of children in a low fertility setting: transitions between home and market care for pre-school children in Germany

Because it may affect a nation's fertility, child care policy is an important policy instrument for low-fertility countries. Designing an effective policy requires an understanding of the determinants of demand for child care. This study uses a descriptive statistical approach to analyse the dynamics of demand for child care for pre-school children in Germany. Age-specific and duration-specific hazard rates for leaving home care and for leaving market care are calculated for various risk groups.

Hazard rate differences across risk groups indicate the presence of important factors affecting transitions. We examine household characteristics, the mother's employment status, and regional supply. We find that households with working mothers and fewer pre-school children have greater demand for market care. There also appears to be excess demand for market care.

The hazard rates of subsequent children do not differ significantly from those of the first child.
pp. 35-48

Author Patrick Heuveline
'Between one and three million': towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970-79)

Estimates of mortality in Cambodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source - the 1992 electoral lists registered by the United Nations - to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of 'excess' mortality in the 1970s.

These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of 'excess' mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past.

In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of 'excess' mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognised.
pp. 49-65

Author Violetta Hionidou
The adoption of fertility control on Mykonos, 1879-1959: stopping, spacing or both?

This paper examines the timing and means of the fertility transition on the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1879 to 1959. By combining the results of family reconstitution with oral evidence, an unusual insight into the pathways of the fertility transition of this island population is offered. The paper concludes by outlining a model of the adoption of fertility control, a model which sees the transition from high to low fertility as a transition from spacing to stopping, and from innovation of methods to innovation of ideas.
pp. 67-83

Author Christophez Z Guilmoto
Institutions and migrations. Short-term versus long-term moves in rural West Africa

This paper is based on fieldwork done in 1992-93 in the Senegal River valley, a Sahelian region characterised by heavy out-migration for more than thirty years. As a result of this long history of human displacement, migration has now become a local institution of its own. More recently, the introduction of irrigation in an otherwise drought-prone area seems to have reduced the intensity of the phenomenon, but the momentum gathered by the local institution of migration means that the decrease of migration rates is likely to be very slow.

The present analysis borrows some of its basic concepts from the new institutional economics and should therefore be seen as an illustration of how this perspective, quite effective in describing the complexity of social exchanges in rural societies, helps explain various determinants of migration. We will show, for example, that the two types of migration observed (short-term and long-term) respond similarly to common structural and family conditions, and appear to differ mainly when individual variables are taken into account.

This feature underlines the crucial opposition between, on the one hand, individual determinants and, on the other, structural factors determined by economic or family characteristics.
pp. 85-103

Author Jesús J Sánchez
Relationships between nuptiality and fertility: a case study on the Spanish province of Navarre, 1786-1991

In this article we analyse the influence of age at marriage and percentage of definitive celibacy on marital and total fertility over the past 200 years in the Spanish province of Navarre. A considerable percentage of the fall in marital fertility in the first half of the twentieth century in rural Navarre was due to the postponement in women's age at marriage. On the other hand, Navarre offers many exceptions to the scenario often endorsed by researchers that sees marriage as the prime mechanism for regulating reproduction in traditional societies. While in the northern part of the province this mechanism did bring about the reduction of total fertility, in the southern part the fall was primarily a consequence of a fall in marital fertility.
pp. 105-115