BSPS day meeting - Recent developments in Household Projection
Held at LSE on Monday 16 July 2012
Presentations from this meeting can be accessed from the hyperlinks in the title lines of the presentations. A report of the meeting is available immediately below.
HH-report - report of the meeting
Household modelling & The ProFamy Model*** - Zeng Yi* (China Center for Economic Research and Director of Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, National School of Development, Peking University)
Application of ProFamy Model** - Zhenglian Wang** (Center for Healthy Aging and Family Studies (CHADS), National School of Development, Peking University)
FORTHCOMING PAPER ON THE PROFAMY METHOD
Derived Forecasts module of the POPGROUP model** - Ludi Simpson (University of Manchester)
Official UK Governments Household projections - Bob Garland, Yolanda Ruiz (Housing and Planning Statistics, Department for Communities and Local Government), Tony Whiffen (Demography, Heritage and Equalities Statistics, Welsh Government), Esther Roughsedge & Valerie Hale (GRO Scotland)
Household projections presentation: England
Household projections presentation: Scotland
Household projections presentation: Wales
*The ProFamy model is a macro multi-state model that projects cohort by age, sex, marital/union status (including cohabitation), parity, and number of coresident children and parents (Zeng et al., 2010). The model produces household distributions in future years; ethnic, sub-national and rural/urban categories may be included. The model requires as input only conventional and commonly available demographic data to compute the individual groups’ status changes by cohort and age, in contrast to ones such as LIPRO (Van Imhoff & Keilman, 1992) that require household transition data. These data can be obtained from vital statistics, censuses, and routinely conducted surveys.
Van Imhoff, E. & Keilman, N. (1992). LIPRO 2.0: An application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam, Netherlands: 30 Swets & Zeithinger.
Zeng, Y., Land, K. C., Wang, Z., Gu, D. (2010) Household and population projections at sub-national levels: an extended cohort-component approach. MPIDR Working Paper WP-2010-028.
Yi Zeng (Ph.D, Professor, Duke University and Peking University): HOUSEHOLDS AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS PROJECTIONS AT NATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONAL LEVELS -- A Multistate Extended Cohort-component Approach
Zhenglian Wang (Ph.D, President of Households and Consumption Forecasting Inc., NC, U.S.A., and a Senior Research Scientist at Center for Study of Population and Health of Duke University): ProFamy -- a user-friendly software for households and living arrangements projections
Yi Zeng’s Summary Biography: Yi Zeng received his PhD degree in Demography from Brass Free University in 1986 and conducted his post-doctorial research at Princeton University in 1986-1987. He is a Professor at Center for Study of Aging and Human Development, Medical School of Duke University，China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development at Peking University, Distinguished Research Scholar of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and a foreign member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. Up to March, 2012, he had 117 professional articles written in English published in academic journals or as book chapters in the U.S. and Europe; among them, 80 articles were published in anonymously peer-reviewed academic journals. He has had 99 professional articles written in Chinese and published in China; among them, 79 articles were published in anonymously peer-review Chinese academic journals. He has published twenty-three academic books; among them, eight were written in English (three published by Springer Publisher and one by University of Wisconsin Press). Yi Zeng has been awarded eleven national academic prizes and three international academic prizes, such as the Dorothy Thomas Prize of the Population Association of America, the national prizes for advancement of science and technology awarded by the State Sciences and Technology Commission of China, the highest academic honor of Peking University: "Prize for Outstanding Contributions in Sciences," and the “Chinese Population Prize (Science and Technology)”, jointly awarded by nine ministries and seven national non-governmental associations in China.
Zhenglian Wang’s Summary Biography; Dr. Zhenglian Wang received her PhD degree in Health Science (Medical Demography) of Medical School of the University of Southern Denmark in May 2001. She is currently the President of Households and Consumption Forecasting Inc., NC, U.S.A., and a Senior Research Scientist at Center for Study of Population and Health of Duke University. Her main research interests are family household projections, estimates and market research as well as population aging. She has expertise and been working on ProFamy family household projection model and software development. She was PI of NIH funded SBIR Phase I and Phase II projects which develop the new method/program into user-friendly software, and develop the associated database for wide applications of households and consumption forecasting at national and subnational levels. She has published dozens of research articles and one book (as second author) with Vaupel, J. W., Kirill Abdreev and A. Yashin.