Estimating future household formation

held at LSE on Monday 16 December 2013

Presentations from this meeting can now be accessed via the hyperlinks in the programme below. A report of the meeting is also available, plus a comment on housing demand and need from BSPS member Robin Edwards:

.Estimating Future Household Formation-report of day meeting

 Comment - demand and need for-housing---Robin-Edwards

Household formation has slowed compared to expectations in past household projections, prompting questions about assumptions for new projections that are difficult to answer. Is this slowed household formation long-term change? Does lower household formation represent less housing need? This event will review the evidence, addressing as far as it can the impact of changes in welfare policy, real income, the housing market, immigration, higher education student costs and housing preferences.

The motivation for all presentations will be the uncertainty around inputs to household projections, and what can be learned from their past trends. The focus will be on informing the assumptions for future trends rather than on alternative models, and on national trends rather than local variations although not exclusively.

10.45-11.05 Welcome and introduction: Official household projections in the UK, overview of methods and uncertainties in their assumptions. Ludi Simpson.

Household formation - Ludi Simpson

11.05-11.40 Household formation trends: evidence informing the CLG 2011-based projections. Tim Lyne, Experian Ltd.

Household formation - Tim Lyne

11.40-12.20 Economic and housing market influences on household formation, a review. Glen Bramley, Herriot Watt University.

Household formation - Glen Bramley

12.20-13.00 Changing living arrangements and household formation, a review.  Ann Berrington, University of Southampton.

Household Formation - Ann Berrington

14.00-15.15 Reports of census analyses. Neil McDonald/Alan Holmans (Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research), Eddie Holmes/Paul Barton (Luton Council), Esther Roughsedge (National Records Scotland), Tony Whiffen (Wales Government), Greg Ball (independent demographic consultant).

Household formation - Neil McDonald

Household Formation - Eddie Holmes

Household formation - Esther Roughsedge

Household formation - Tony Whiffen

Household formation - Greg Ball

15.15-16.00 Panel of morning speakers: new assumptions or new models?