Poster abstracts

Strand organiser: Fran Darlington, University of Leeds 

Arranged in alphabetical order by first author.

Unraveling urban-rural health disparities and the influence of deprivation across the continuum within England and Wales
Rebecca Allan, University of Liverpool 

Place of residence is thought to impact substantially upon an individuals’ health. Characteristics of the environment are postulated as having both a direct impact upon health, as well as a mediating influence upon compositional variables. Conflicting literature also exists regarding the influence of urbanicity. Further, although research regarding rural deprivation and health has grown as of late, knowledge regarding rural health continues to lag behind that of urban. This study aims to determine (i) how the health status of populations vary over the urban-rural continuum. (ii) to what extent such variations are considered a result of compositional or contextual effects (iii) how the link between deprivation and health varies in the rural compared to the urban context. Binary logistic regression is used to study limiting long-term illness of individuals using 2001 UK census small area microdata. I find that ill-health systematically increases with subsequent levels of urbanization and persists after controlling for compositional factors such as social class. Exceptions to this pattern were identified in London and small towns. A reduction in the influence of deprivation upon health with decreasing levels of urbanicity was also discovered. Deprivation was found to exert a much larger influence within London and large cities, a moderate influence within cities towns and small towns and a considerably reduced impact within rural areas. Overall, I find evidence of a positive health gradient across the urban-rural continuum. Such a gradient is at least partially a result of contextual influence. Additionally, the influence of deprivation varies, with people from rural areas having better health than anticipated given their deprivation levels. 

Email: gg0u92a5@liverpool.ac.uk 

Assessing the contribution of immigrants to fertility levels and trends in Greece, 2004-2012
Christos Bagavos1, Georgia Verropoulou2 (presenter), 2Cleon Tsimbos, 1Panteion University, 2University of Piraeus 

Background: The recent demographic history of Greece involves a sharp fertility decline since 1980, with TFRs reaching lowest-low levels in the mid-1990s, and intense migration inflows since the 1990s. The case of immigrant fertility in Greece, however, remains largely unexplored. Aims: The present study, has two objectives: first, to assess levels and trends of migrant fertility over 2004-2012; second, to establish the contribution of migrant childbearing to the overall fertility in that period while evaluating the ‘fertility per se’ versus the ‘structural’ effect in that contribution, employing a decomposition method. Data and methods: Births by age of mother and citizenship (Greek versus all others) were derived from vital statistics for 2004-2012. Numbers of women of reproductive ages by 5-year age-groups and citizenship were estimated using population projection techniques, making appropriate assumptions. Results: Fertility among immigrants is much higher compared to natives for all years. In the overall period, immigrant births represent about 15%-20%; their share is highest at ages 15-19 and lowest at ages 30+. Two sub-periods can be distinguished: over 2004-2009 there is a fertility increase both for immigrants and natives whereas over 2009-2012 a decrease is apparent. In the first period, TFR rose by 0.208 children per woman (15.9%); more than half of this increase is attributable to native women (56.3%). The subsequent decline, however, is attributable to a greater extend to the immigrants (55.8%). The decomposition method indicates that the decline in migrant fertility in the era of economic crisis may be wholly attributed to a ‘fertility per se’ effect; fertility of immigrants seems very vulnerable to economic uncertainty. 

Email: gverrop@unipi.gr 

A cross-temporal meta-review of fertility preferences in China
Stuart A. Basten1, Baochang Gu2, Hou Jiawei2; University of Oxford, 2Renmin University of China 

In recent years, scholars have increasingly called into question the claim that the fall to low fertility in China was primarily driven by family planning restrictions; instead that economic development, urbanisation, and the development of improved educational and employment opportunities. In this view, China – and urban areas in particular – share more in common with other low fertility settings in Pacific Asia than perhaps previously recognised. Fertility preferences, as measured through ideal or intended number of children have been employed by demographers in a variety of ways. We present the results of a meta-analysis of fertility preferences in urban and rural China covering the period from the implementation of the one-child policy in 1980 through to 2009. We find indicative evidence of widespread below-replacement level fertility preferences. These concur with other national level surveys. Further policy relaxations are unlikely to result in a 'baby boom'. 

Email: stuart.basten@spi.ox.ac.uk 

Fertility and timing of childbearing in Colombia
Ewa Batyra, London School of Economics 

Colombia joined the group of low fertility countries in 2010, when its TFR reached replacement level. Recent studies show that the long observed early childbearing pattern in the country, as well as the Latin American region as a whole, might be changing, but detailed analysis is lacking. The present research addresses this by studying the changes in the timing of fertility across parities and cohorts in Colombia between 1990 and 2010. First of all, the analysis of five rounds of Demographic and Health Survey reveals opposing trends in the timing of first and higher order births. Using the event history analysis I show that the advancement of first births across older cohorts occurred alongside the postponement of second births. The results suggest that the feature of fertility pattern in Colombia was having fewer children and having children of higher parity later, but starting childbearing early in life. Secondly, the analysis documents the halt to the trend towards earlier transition to motherhood among younger cohorts of women, suggesting a changing pattern of timing of childbearing in the country. The results are analysed with regard to women`s educational level and show that the norms relating to later motherhood has not only been emerging among women attending university but are also spreading to lower educational groups. Given the already low levels of TFR in Colombia, observed changes in the timing of motherhood might suggest that further declines in the period fertility indicators to below replacement levels could be expected in the coming years. 

Email: e.batyra@lse.ac.uk 

Understanding the gap between desired and realized fertility in Morocco
Btissam Benkerroum, Center of Studies and Demographic Research, High Commission for Planning

Using data from the National Survey on Population and Family Health (ENPSF) conducted by the Ministry of Health, this paper aims to explain the gap between desired and realized fertility in Morocco, and mainly why Moroccan women over-estimate their future fertility? The unexpected sharp decline in fertility that occurs in many African countries led to an overestimate of the projected population which, in turn, compromises the design of public policy. Hence a good predictor of fertility is of utmost importance to the successful implementation of major public policies. In this context, Morocco is witnessing an unexpected sharp decline in its fertility rate alongside with a drastic drop in infant mortality and an increased life expectancy at birth. The pace at which all these changes have occurred is remarkable, indeed studying the gap between intended and realized fertility will contribute to a better understanding of determinants of low fertility in Morocco and know whether the upcoming changes in fertility are predictable by investigating the following research questions: 1. -Who are the women who predict well their fertility? 2. -Why other fails? 3. -Can these patterns be compared to the evolution of fertility in other developed countries where a demographic transition has already occurred? We expect that fertility intentions are a good predictor of fertility for women with better education, who already experienced parenthood, who married late and with a good leaving conditions. Women empowerment measured through a composite index including variables related to women’s participation in household decision-making, is expected to contribute in an important way to the low realized fertility. 

Email: btissam.benkerroum@gmail.com 

Impact of internal migration on cohort fertility: case of Russia
Svetlana Biryukova1, Alla Tyndi2; 1National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), Russia, 2Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration 

In this study we investigated differences in fertility between groups of Russian women with diverse migration biographies. We used the Russian Census 2010 microdata to analyze cohort fertility of women born in 1950-1979. The large size of the country together with its demographic heterogeneity allowed us to differentiate migration patterns both by the more distance and by the combination of fertility regimes in the regions of origin and the regions of destination. The data showed that on average women who live at the place of their birth at the Census moment have fewer children compared to those who have moved to another region during their lives. The highest fertility is observed among the women who moved within their birth region. At the same time the move to the capital regions (i.e. Moscow, Saint Petersburg or their provinces) has strong negative effect on the cohort fertility. A set of simple linear models estimated within the study revealed that the distance of migration turns out to be insignificant when we include parameters characterizing fertility regimes in the regions of origin and in the regions of destination into the equation. Generally regression analysis proved that internal migration has a positive effect on fertility. Thus, even moving to the regions with lower fertility level increases average number of children per woman in comparison to those who have not migrated at all. On the whole, the higher is fertility in the destination region, the higher is the observed positive effect on cohort fertility of migrated women. 

Email: sbiryukova@hse.ru 

Socio-demographic correlates of second and subsequent births. Estimates based on Russian Census data
Svetlana Biryukova,  Oxana Sinyavskay; National Research University Higher School of Economics 

The study focuses on the social and demographic correlates of second and subsequent births in Russia. Based on Russian Census 2010 microdata, we estimate the chances of fertile women having two and then three or more children. Rural-urban differences appear to be the most influential factors in second and subsequent births. However, for the third or subsequent births differences between urban and well-educated rural women become less significant. Less-well educated women living in rural areas have the highest chances of having second and subsequent children. The dynamics of these changes over time elapsed since the first birth also indicates shorter inter-genetic intervals in this group of women. Generally, the higher the age at first birth the lower are the chances of having two or more children. Yet a very early first birth also lowers the chances of having further children. When analyzing the likelihood of second and the subsequent births by age at first birth within the cohorts of women born in 1960-1990, we observe a flatter curve for the younger generations. This suggests that age at the start of the reproductive career gradually becomes a little less significant correlate of second and subsequent births. 

Email: sbiryukova@hse.ru 

Breast cancer and demographic risk factors
Patrick Carroll & Jean Utshudiema, PAPRI 

The Breast Cancer Epidemic: Trends and Risk Factors over the past 50 Years and forward projections. 50,000 new cases diagnosed each year is a large number for female breast cancers in the UK. The reproductive and hormonal risk factors that might explain this epidemic are of particular interest to demographers. These include fertility, age at first birth, childlessness, breast feeding, induced abortions and use of hormonal contraceptives. National data from 8 countries England & Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Finland and Denmark is examined to show the trends in breast cancer incidence and also the parallel trends in known risk factors particularly fertility, legally induced abortion, age at first birth and childlessness for which national age specific data is available. Successive national birth cohorts of women in these countries are to be investigated and graphs drawn to illustrate the trends for the 8 countries and correlations calculated. These show for England & Wales cumulated cohort rates of breast cancer for age groups of women and also for four of the risk factors, fertility, abortion, age at first birth and childlessness and for several countries the age specific data allows the graphs to be calculated for two of the risk factors fertility and abortion. In the poster it is planned to review the performance of forecasts published in 2007.[1] This set out forecasts of numbers of new malignant cancers and also numbers of carcinomas in situ to be expected in the years up to 2025. Since the 2007 paper has been published the use of digital screening machines has led to an increasing proportion of the breast cancers diagnosed and reported to the cancer registry being carcinomas in situ. Comparisons are to be made with the reported incidence in recent years of malignant female breast cancers and carcinomas in situ and the numbers forecast in the 2007 JPANDS paper. 

Email: papriresearch@btconnect.com 

An introduction to the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS)
Susan Carsley1, National Records of Scotland Lee Williamson2; 1National Records of Scotland, 2 University of Edinburgh 

This poster will introduce the SLS and the datasets, the application process for researchers interested in using the SLS and outline research examples. The Longitudinal Studies Centre – Scotland (LSCS) was established in 2001 and hosts the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS). This study links together routinely collected administrative data for a 5.3% representative sample of the Scottish population (about 270,000 people). It currently includes a wealth of information from the censuses starting in 1991, vital events registrations (births, deaths and marriages), Scottish education data, and with appropriate permissions can be linked to NHS health data including cancer registry and hospital admission data. The size and scope of the SLS make it an unparalleled resource in Scotland for analysing a range of socio-economic, demographic and health questions. Additionally, the longitudinal nature of the SLS is particularly valuable, allowing an exploration of causality in a way that cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time does not. In this way, the SLS can provide insights into the health and social status of the Scottish population and, crucially, how it changes over time. 

Email: susan.carsley@nrscotland.gov.uk 

Deltaic social-ecological systems: a ‘safe operating spaces’ approach
Gregory Cooper, University of Southampton, Faculty of Social and Human Sciences, Department of Geography and Environment. (Part of DECCMA (DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) and funded by CARIAA and Canadian Department for International Development) 

The livelihoods of deltaic populations are underpinned by inter-linked biogeophysical and socio-economic subsystems. Alternate states are known to exist for the various important social-ecological subsystems, such as brackish lagoons and nearshore waters. The accumulation and interaction of environmental stresses can force these subsystems towards less desirable regimes. Such critical transitions can produce cascading detrimental collapses of local ecosystem quality, regional natural resource production and the wellbeing of deltaic populations and communities. The concept of regional ‘safe operating spaces’ provides an innovative perspective in helping to assess the social-ecological sustainability of deltas. Based upon identifying critical magnitudes of stresses, sustainability could be conceptualised as the persistence of desired states and the avoidance of tipping points. Here I present a novel approach based upon modelling the pertinent characteristics and dynamics of deltaic social-ecological systems. Model skill is tested by hindcast simulations, parameterised with historical data. Using a probabilistic simulation approach, a future ‘danger zone’ can be designated by engineering the collapse of crucial system components. This technique will identify the parameter values which must be avoided in future. Therefore, a ‘safe operating zone’ is designated within model space, representing an operationally sustainable future. Saliently, this approach promises to: i) uncover the most influential system characteristics leading to system collapse; ii) provide operational, policy-relevant ‘safe limits’ for the different system stressors and conditions; iii) establish the current proximity of deltas to critical boundaries; iv) advance the science of estimating tipping point occurrences. 

Email: gsc1g11@soton.ac.uk 

The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS)
Stefanie Doebler, Ian Shuttleworth; Queen's University Belfast 

The poster introduces the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and presents its unique historical link to the 1981 – 1991 – 2001 and 2011 Northern Ireland Census. The poster gives examples how the data are can be applied to demographic research in various health-related areas and where researchers can obtain more information on the data and its usage. The poster explains the structure of the data, its elements and possibilities of linkage. This presentation is useful and informative to researchers interested in using British longitudinal data, and Census-based data for population research, research on ageing, particularly studies on health outcomes and inequalities. The large sample size covering c. 28% of the population of Northern Ireland allows researchers to analyse sub-groups of the population. Also, comparisons with the Scottish (SLS)- and the English (ONS) longitudinal studies are possible. 

Email: s.doebler@qub.ac.uk 

Exploring the relationship between political orientation, health and lifestyle in Ukraine
Katarzyna Doniec, Maria Iacovou; University of Cambridge 

Ecological and individual-level cross-sectional studies from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan have indicated better health status and the greater longevity of people with right-wing political orientation as compared to the left-wing orientation. However, an inaccurate measure of subjective health (single response on a 5-point Likert scale), cross-sectional data and a lack of consideration for potential confounding variables limit our understanding of mechanisms behind this association and rule out possibility for causal conclusions. Therefore, the goal of the current project is to progress the understanding of the relationship between political orientation and health by (a) using detailed health questionnaires that assess different domains of physical health and other aspects of well-being (b) utilizing panel data, (c) investigating the effect of lifestyle values in explaining the health gap between right- and left-wing voters, (d) providing more reliable measures of political orientation (e) investigating the association in a non-Western political context. To meet objectives of the study, longitudinal panel data were derived from the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey in 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2012. Fixed effects models, and cross-sectional multiple regression analyses indicate a positive and robust relationship between pro-democratic, free-market orientation and health. The association was only partially explained by lifestyle (drinking, smoking, diet, exercising) and other demographic explanatory variables (age, income, occupation, education, size of settlement). Results and limitations are discussed, and potential further directions are pointed out. 

Email: kd353@cam.ac.uk 

Short- and long-term population responses to natural and anthropogenic events: A mathematical modelling approach
Claire Dooley1, Jakub Bijak2, Stuart Townley3, David Hodgson4 & Thomas H. G. Ezard11Centre for Biological Sciences, University of Southampton; 2 Social Statistics & Demography, University of Southampton; 3Environment & Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter; 4 Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter 

Earth is not a place of mathematical equilibrium. Civilisations advance by responding to events that may be short in duration, but leave dynamic signatures that persist far into the future. In Europe and beyond, the Second World War left millions dead but those who survived gave birth to a baby-booming generation. The baby-boomers are now reaching an age where their increased relative abundance poses financial, social and moral questions. These questions do not arise from an equilibrial view of the world, but rather one in which transient events leave a persistent and quantifiable imprint. Here, we analyse population transient dynamics with the aim to understand and predict the positive and negative implications transients have on future population size and composition, and therefore on future population health. We use data from population atlases published by Nathan Keyfitz and William Flieger, integrated with the UN World Population Prospects and EuroStat data. We use tools adapted from engineering and applied mathematics that provide a comprehensive description of inertia, momentum and transient amplification, not previously used on human populations, in order to quantify transient dynamics at the country level. Our initial case study shows how a “baby boom” in Sweden generates positive population amplification of just under 2% while a very small infant cohort in El Salvador affects negative attenuation of around 1%, relative to their expected asymptotic population size. In the full paper, we will present our results for a country-level comparative study, and identify commonalities between various types of population dynamics observed in different countries. 

Email: C.A.Dooley@soton.ac.uk 

Emerging fertility patterns and family dynamics in London: a socio-spatial analysis
Sylvie Dubuc, University of Oxford, Department of Social Policy and Intervention 

The age specific fertility rates (ASFR, number of children per 1000 women by 5 years age group) in the UK and elsewhere generally follows the universal bell shape (Gaussian distribution) with a peak age at childbearing for women in their late 20s to early 30s and relatively few births occurring at early and older ages. Using birth registration and census data the Greater London Authority (GLA) has produced ASFR for Greater London and at borough level. The age pattern at childbearing in London until the mid 1990s resembled the national profile. However, GLA has measured striking changes in the reproductive behaviour in London from the mid 1990s, especially an unprecedented relative birth deficit of women in their 20s, when fertility usually peaks. This trend is observed in Greater London as a whole, more pronounced in Inner London and specific boroughs. So far, comparable data and reports from other ‘global’ metropolises, notably New York and Paris do not share London’s emerging bimodal fertility pattern. This paper presents measures of fertility trends and ASFRs in London (using several data sources, and compared with other capital cities. A shift-share model to analyse socio-spatial effects is used to evaluate London socio-demographic specificity and the role of London social mix in explaining the demographic findings. 

Email: sylvie.dubuc@spi.ox.ac.uk 

Modern contraceptive use among illiterate women in India: Does proximate illiteracy matter?
Mousumi Dutta1 and Zakir Husain2; 1Economics Department, Presidency University, Kolkata, 2Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur 

While the positive role of partner’s education on modern contraceptive use is well accepted in literature, the reasons underlying this process are yet to be explored. In particular, two possibilities may occur. An educated partner may be more informed, allowing him make a ‘better’ choice for the dyad. Alternatively, his education may generate an externality effect, enabling his spouse to participate more actively in fertility decisions. These two mechanisms differ in their implications for the agency of women. This paper uses the concept of proximate illiteracy (illiterate person having literate family member, in this case literate spouse/partner) to examine whether transmission of human capital is important in explaining contraception use by illiterate women. The analysis uses Demographic Health Survey data (2005-06) for India. We select currently married non-pregnant illiterate women and classify them into two groups—having literate spouse (proximate literate) and having illiterate spouse (isolate). Our initial research hypothesis is that modern contraceptive prevalence rate will be higher among proximate literates. While results of a logit model substantiate our claims for the All India and Rural India samples, the proximate illiterate effect is statistically insignificant in the urban sample. We next try to ascertain whether there is a transmission of human capital between the literate male and his illiterate partner. Results reveal that as the externality effect of partner’s education declines as the partner becomes more educated. We suggest a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of the co-operative approach to family decision-making. 

Email: dmousumi1970@gmail.com 

What we know or rather don't know about the population size in Poland after the latest census
Joanna Dybowska, PIN-Instytut Sląski w Opolu, Poland 

This presentation aims to explain the consequences for the quality of information on the population size of Poland when official statistics use the category “de facto” population. This  differs from the resident population category recommended for demographic research in EU countries. Using the “de facto” category results in a large part of migration outflow being “invisible” in the current register system, thus officially published data overestimates population size in Poland are. We present a method of contrasting census data of the census with current evidence, which may show up net migration “invisible” in current register system and in annual balances and also may enable the correction of population size in the years between censuses. Setting ”invisible” net migration may also reveal a better total population figure for Poland. We present results of the analysis of both total population in Poland and in the chosen region – The Opole Silesia, which has experienced the most intensive migration outflow over generations. 

Email: j.dybowska@instytutslaski.com 

Active Ageing Index for Russia: issues of methodology
Anna Ermolina, Oxana Sinyavskaya, Maria Varlamova; Institute for Social Development Studies, Higher School of Economic, Moscow 

The aim of this paper is the application of the Active Ageing Index (AAI) methodology developed by the European Center for Social and Welfare Policy and Research for Russia. We estimated the AAI on the basis of Russian statistics and sociological data. In Russia, estimation of the AAI is based on several data sources selected according to the following criteria: (1) information for the AAI in the questionnaire; (2) known information about sampling, fieldwork procedures and data quality; (3) repeated or longitudinal survey; (4) international study for comparison with other countries participated in the AAI. In case of different sources we provided alternative estimations of indicators for better comparability with the European AAI results and conducted sensitivity analysis. The estimated AAI for Russia equals 31.1% that is similar to the EU average. Russian positions in the AAI ranking are worse in the areas of (1) life expectancy and health, access to health care; (2) independent living arrangements; (3) employment, particularly for people aged 55-64, voluntary activities and social contacts outside a family. Russia is better in the AAI ranking in educational attainment, ICT using, and the relative financial welfare of the elderly. The results show a relatively high comparability of the AAI results obtained for Russia with EU countries, however, certain individual indicators of the AAI can be modified given socioeconomic differences between CIS countries and EU members. In future, we are going to test new data sources and conduct deeper analysis of the results obtained. 

Email: aaermolina@yandex.ru 

The Census & Administrative Data Longitudinal Studies Hub (CALLS Hub)
Allan Findlay1, Oliver Duke-Williams2 & Fiona Cox1; 1University of St Andrews, 2University College London   

The Census & Administrative Data Longitudinal Studies Hub (CALLS Hub) has been commissioned by the ESRC to support, promote and harmonise the work of the three LS Research Support Units (CeLSIUS, NILS-RSU, SLS-DSU), with the aim of providing a more streamlined experience for users. The three UK census Longitudinal Studies provide a unique and powerful research resource for a range of academic disciplines. They also form a powerful source of research evidence for policy-makers, practitioners and third sector bodies.

CALLS Hub exists to help researchers find the information and resources they need in a straightforward way, and to promote the work and impact of the RSU’s to a wider audience.

By bringing together the three studies, we can also highlight the potential benefits and possibilities of using more than one LS, either to allow regional comparisons or to build a national population. The aims of CALLS Hub are:

* To enhance the research potential of the LSs by co-ordinating the development of new resources and methodologies.

* To enhance and streamline the user experience of obtaining information about the LSs and applying to use them for research.

* To increase academic impact by developing communication strategies to raise awareness of the LSs, promoting their outputs and facilitating their impact strategies.

* To increase the economic and societal impact of the LSs by working together with key external stakeholders to develop research projects meeting their evidence needs.

* To facilitate and encourage the use of multiple LSs for UK-wide research. 

Email: fmb@st-andrews.ac.uk 

Family structure, household composition, and communality in pre-famine Ireland Eoin Flaherty and Catherine McNamee; School of Sociology, Social Policy, and Social Work, Queen’s University Belfast 

Drawing on a population dataset of the Aran Islands (Ireland) from the decennial census of 1821, this paper explores the relationship between landholding, household composition, and family structure. Whilst much work has examined the relationship between local economy, household labour provision, and family structure, less attention has been paid to the relationship between wider systems of resource governance, family, and occupational structure. Since the emergence of the work of the Cambridge Group, Ireland has remained part of an extensive debate on the ubiquity of stem families in pan-European context. In these debates, Ireland was often depicted as an example of the universality of stem family structures which formed a ‘functional’ fit with circumstances of social and ecological precarity. These arguments were later challenged on grounds of measurement inaccuracy, conceptual clarity, and others concerning the theoretical fit between narratives of family formation, and observed family structures in different geographical locations. The Aran Islands represent an area governed by a unique system of collective landholding known as the ‘rundale’ system, where community lands were allocated on a qualitatively different basis to many regions of Ireland. Consequently, we present for the first time a comparison of data on family structure and household composition between the ‘rundale’ areas of the West of Ireland, with those from other districts covered by surviving census enumerator’s books. By adopting a comparative perspective, we thus aim to reveal the unique contribution of communal land governance to internal variations in demographic outcomes in a non-capitalistic society. Our research thus brings together for the first time a classic focus on population and social structure, with a modern focus on the role of the ‘commons’ as a mediator of demographic behaviour. 

Email: c.mcnamee@qub.ac.uk 

Individual and community correlates of HIV testing and receipt of test results among people of childbearing age in Zimbabwe
Marufu Gazimbi, School of Social Sciences, University of Hull 

Disparities in HIV test and receipts of test results rates exist among communities in Zimbabwe. Using secondary data from the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2005 and 2011, this study examines whether HIV testing and receipt of results were associated with individual and community characteristics. The study applies multilevel logistic regression models. The preliminary results presented are based on three level models. In model-1, females were more likely to have tested for HIV and received the results than males, particularly if they lived in rural areas, yet decreasing in higher HIV prevalence areas. Those without secondary education, with a lower socioeconomic status, or with a higher HIV risk perception were less likely to test if they lived in rural and HIV prevalence areas. In model-2, females continued to test more than males (OR=1.78, 95% CI= [1.44, 2.19], p ≤ .001), with likelihood of testing increasing if they lived in rural areas. Finally, the study examined whether HIV prevalence in an area was associated HIV testing behaviour. Consistent with Model 1 and 2, individuals were less likely to have tested if they lived in areas with higher HIV prevalence rates (OR=4.44, 95% CI=[2.80, 7.04], p ≤ .001). Generally, females were more likely than males to have received an HIV test results (OR=1.61, 95% CI=[1.31, 1.97], p ≤ .001). The findings are discussed from an ecological perspective and I propose recommendations for increasing testing of all males and females in HIV-prevalence areas in Zimbabwe. 

Email: M.Gazimbi@2013.hull.ac.uk 

Life expectancy at birth for Administrative and Special Areas within Scotland 2011-2013
Paul Gona, National Records of Scotland 

This poster presents an overview of the methods and some of the results from the latest life expectancy at birth estimates for administrative and special areas within Scotland. In particular, it will show the life expectancy at birth by Urban/Rural classification and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). Life expectancy figures presented are period life expectancies. Period life expectancies are calculated using age specific mortality rates for a given period, with no allowance for any actual or projected future changes in mortality. This means that period life expectancy at birth for a given time period and area is an estimate of the average number of years a new born baby would survive if he/she experienced the particular area’s age specific mortality rates for that time period throughout his/her life. For life expectancy in special areas, Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE) (population estimates for data zones) as well as death data are assigned a lookup and aggregated to the required geography level. The life expectancy figures are a three year average which ensures that the figures published are sufficiently robust. Life expectancy at birth provides a useful measure of mortality rates actually experienced over a given period. It also provides an objective means of comparing trends in mortality, over time, between areas of a country and with other countries. Life expectancy estimates are used in monitoring and investigating health inequality issues across Scotland and in setting public health targets. 

Email: paul.gona@nrscotland.gov.uk 

Are couples really a homogeneous cluster in terms of health? Insights from the Spanish case
Jordi Gumà and Jeroen Spijker, Centre for Demographic Studies, Barcelona 

Living with a partner protects or even enhances health status of both partners, although its impact differs between men and women. Consequently, to disentangle the reasons of their disadvantaged situation partner statuses other than living with a partner have often been the subject of analysis. On the other hand, couples have been less studied, with the exception of differences between cohabitation and marriage. However, in this study we question whether it is plausible to consider that the marital status that pertains to the majority of the adult and an important part of older population has a homogeneous effect among population. For instance, could differences in the socio-demographic profile of couples modify the health benefits of living with a partner? In this study we therefore propose to go further in the analysis of health status of individuals who live with a partner by controlling for a wide range of socio-demographic factors (age, nationality, educational attainment, occupational status, etc.) of them and their partners. The idea of including information from partners comes from the aim of exploring whether homogamy or heterogeneity in couples’ socio-demographic profiles affects individual’s health. To this end, we will analyse two different data sources, namely the SHARE and EU-SILC surveys, which will allow us to perform an international comparison. Logistic regression models will be used in order to identify which of the individual- and partner-level socio-demographic factors are associated with differences in health status. In the specific case of SHARE survey where the target population is aged 50 and over, special attention will be paid to those with a carer role. 

Email: jguma@ced.uab.es 

Micro-level vulnerability assessment of estuarine islands: A case study from Indian Sundarban
Rituparna Hajra, Amit Ghosh and Tuhin Ghosh School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University 

Vulnerability encompasses the characteristics or circumstances of a community or system that makes it susceptible to damaging effects of any negative impacts. Fragility of ecosystem coupled with high population pressure has made these estuarine islands vulnerable. Assessment of island vulnerability is focused on climate change impacts, while less attention paid to other drivers of vulnerability. This study aims to make  the gap analysis by assessing both physical and socio-economic  vulnerabilities of Sagar, Ghoramara and Mousani Island at the  western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD). The household survey  used data collected from twenty-seven sampled Mouzas (lowest administrative boundary) through cluster  random  sampling.  A Mouza-level composite vulnerability assessment  was performed using the  methodology of 'the Composite Vulnerability Index' (CVI). Key variables in this analysis are physical parameters like erosion, housing conditions, electrification, and social parameters such as population density, adult education, and sanitation Economic parameters included percentage  of people  'Below  Poverty Line' (BPL). The most vulnerable Mouzas have been identified, while the results  show that these islands are moderate to highly  vulnerable from socioeconomic and environmental changes. This study has identified where action is needed to reduce vulnerability. 

Email: tuhin_ghosh@yahoo.com 

Natural hazards, livelihoods and sustainable development: evidence from the Indian Sundarban Delta
Rituparna Hajra1, Sylvia Szabo2, Tuhin Ghosh1, Zoe Matthews2, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou3; 1School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University,, 2 Division of Social Statistics & Demography, University of Southampton, 3 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota 

A natural hazard is defined as a condition that may cause loss of livelihoods, property, or life. Natural hazards often become disasters in coastal areas as coasts are the most populous regions in the world. Impacts of disasters on poorer communities are likely to be relatively greater because poorer households have less resilient social-ecological systems. Drawing from the Driving Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) concept, the present study aims to assess the impact of natural hazards on livelihoods in Sagar, Ghorama and Mousani Islands, all located in the western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD). The study makes use of the data collected during direct interviews with 783 households within the study area selected by cluster random sampling. Key variables included in the analysis were normalized household income, reliance on ecosystem services, age and sex of household head, household level dependency ratio and household location. Data were analyzed using logistic and multinomial regression. The results suggest that poorest households are significantly more likely to endure a loss following a natural hazard. These associations remain statistically significant even when confounders are accounted for. The results further suggest that, ceteris paribus, salinization, tidal surge, erosion and household location are all significant predictors of economic and human loss in the context of natural hazards. Given the current and projected impact of climate change and importance of delta regions as world’s food baskets, the results demonstrate the critical issue of natural hazards for well-being of delta populations in the short and long run. 

Email: s.m.szabo@soton.ac.uk 

Internal migration across regional Australia: the impact of industrial change
John Hicks, Parikshit Basu, Tom Murphy, Kishor Sharma; School of Accounting and Finance, Charles Sturt University 

In Australia, the analysis of the internal migration across regional areas smaller than states has been restricted by the availability of suitable data. This paper endeavours to use a new experimental data set produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) which records the internal migration of Australians between sub-state regions over the period 2006/7 to 2010/11. This period is of particular interest in inland and remote Australia as it follows on from a severe national drought which adversely impacted agriculture and its related industries and coincided with the latter stages of a mining boom driven by demand from China. Understanding the impact of these events on population, and hence labour, mobility is essential for the effective development and implementation of government policy. We use the new ABS data in conjunction with data on regional economic performance to apply a fixed effects regression model to explain the impact of the economic performance of the regions on their internal migration experiences. 

Email: jhicks@csu.edu.au 

Scotland’s Mid-year small area population estimates and aggregation to non-standard geographies
Michael Hunter, National Records of Scotland 

This poster looks at the relationships between various geographies and their population estimates published annually by the National Records of Scotland (NRS). Annual population estimates are published at data zone level. The data zone boundaries were revised following the 2011 Scottish Census. The 6,976 data zones cover the whole of Scotland and nest within local authority boundaries. Data zones are groups of 2011 Census output areas which originally had populations of between 500 and 1,000 household residents, and some effort was made to respect physical boundaries. In addition, they have compact shape and contain households with similar social characteristics. These data zone boundaries are then aggregated to produce a set of higher level geographies on a ‘best-fit’ basis. These higher level geographies include Scottish Parliamentary Constituencies, UK Parliamentary Constituencies and Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS). This poster will look at the relationship of these ‘best-fit’ geographies versus the actual geographic boundaries. 

Email: michael.hunter@nrscotland.gov.uk 

Are the aged a burden or an asset? Assessing the contribution of elderly workers to household economic status in India
Zakir Husain1, Mousumi Dutta2, Antara Dhar3; 1Department of Humanities and Social Sciences Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, 2Economics Department, Presidency University, Kolkata,  3Economics Department, Calcutta University 

Initial studies on ageing societies viewed the aged as a burden on societies and their families. This led to a focus on the transfer of resources to the aged. In recent years, studies have recognised that reverse flow of resources from the aged to their families is also an important form of transfer. The aged can make both a financial contribution to their families and also perform household-related chores, enabling the younger generation to divert the labour thus freed to labour markets. This implies that the aged can become an asset to families, paving the way for active ageing. Using all-India data from the "Employment and Unemployment" survey conducted by National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) in 2011-12, we estimate the gross and net financial contribution of elderly workers. Statistical tests indicate that such contributions are significant. A Tobit model is estimated to identify determinants of financial contribution of elderly workers to their families. This is followed by a state-wise re-estimation of Planning Commission poverty estimates based on monthly household expenditure after deducting net contribution of effect. It is found that poverty levels (measured by the Head Count Ratio) do not change significantly in rural areas of all states, urban poverty increases in almost all the states. Results also indicate that intensity of poverty (captured by Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index) would have risen substantially in most states without the contribution of aged workers. Mapping techniques are used to examine spatial variations in extent of financial contribution of aged and impact on poverty levels. 

Email: dzhusain@gmail.com 

Contraception method, or methods? Examining contraception choice of urban graduates over life cycle
Zakir Husain1, Mousumi Dutta2; 1Department of Humanities and Social Sciences Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, 2Economics Department, Presidency University, Kolkata 

Research on reproductive behavior assumes a static model of decision-making concentrating on current modern contraception method used. This approach overlooks the increasing evidence that [1] respondents may use combination of methods at a time [2] respondents may switch between one combination to another over the life cycle. These issues have been addressed in a primary survey of about 900 currently married urban graduates aged 21-45 years undertaken in Kolkata, a metropolitan city in India. Respondents were requested to state the contraception method/combination of methods used before first conception, before second conception, and so on. This information was analyzed using transition matrices, constructed as follows: [1] Contraception method or combinations used before and after a particular conception are plotted in rows (i) and columns (j), respectively [2] In the matrix, aij indicates proportion of sample using ith method / method mix, say, before first conception and jth method / method mix after first conception [3] The diagonal of the matrix estimates the sample proportion which does not change contraception method after a conception [4] Similar matrices has been plotted for each conception Analysis reveals that respondents tend to shift to behavioral methods (singly, or in combination with male condoms) at higher parity levels. Results of a multinomial logit supports the finding that there is a natural tendency to drift towards behavioral methods over marital duration. This may be attributed due to the infrequent nature of sexual intercourse requiring birth control methods that may be used easily without any prior preparation. 

Email: dzhusain@gmail.com 

Trends in women’s working patterns after childbirth using the ONS Longitudinal Study
Lorraine Ireland, Nicky Rogers and Julian Buxton; Office for National Statistics 

The ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) contains linked census and life event data for 1% of the population of England and Wales. 2011 Census data have now been added to the study meaning that the LS now holds information on intention to stay, passports held, visitors, second addresses, main language and civil partnerships for the first time. It also means that for the second consecutive decade the LS will have information on general health, caring and religion, as well as linked data from five successive censuses that will support studies on the life course. We will present results in trends in women’s working patterns after childbirth and how this has changed over time (1971-2011). This poster will also give an overview of the LS and key variables it contains and its potential use in furthering understanding of the life course. The 2015 BSPS conference presents a timely opportunity to highlight data is available as the result of inclusion of 2011 Census data and will help researchers decide whether the LS is appropriate for their research. 

Email: lorraine.ireland@ons.gsi.gov.uk 

Fertility change in Turkey: Insights from Developmental Idealism
Serap Kavas1, Arland Thornton2; 1Suleyman Sah University, Istanbul, 2University of Michigan 

Turkey has experienced remarkable declines in fertility levels during the last six decades. Several studies have documented the reasons behind declining fertility; however, explanations that place more emphasis on the structural factors are extensive, which calls for attention to the dearth of research done on the effects of ideational influences on the fertility change. Our purpose in this paper is to investigate the extent of developmental idealism’s influence and its relationship to declining fertility through presenting new data and analysis from a nonwestern context, Turkey. We aim to explore whether or not belief in the ideas of developmental idealism has any influence on the reproductive choices of ordinary people and whether individuals in Turkey believe that development and fertility are positively or negatively interrelated. Our new survey shows that the ideas of developmental idealism (specifically ones connected to fertility) have spread to and are acknowledged by individuals in Turkey. Our data demonstrate that individuals in Turkey give credence to the belief that declining fertility is inevitable as the country is developing and that it will facilitate economic growth. * The Survey has been supported by a grant from the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK, SOBAG 3501-grant #113K073).(OCT 2013-Oct 2015). 

Email: skavas@ssu.edu.tr 

The ethnic gradient of maternal employment: Contextualizing variation across origin groups and migrant generations in Belgium
Tine Kil1, Karel Neels1, Helga de Valk2; 1University of Antwerp, 2NIDI & University of Brussels 

Background: The transition to motherhood and labour force participation are negatively associated for majority group populations across Europe. Despite the fact that migrant women of non-European origin typically start family formation at a younger age, are characterized by more traditional gender role ideas and usually have disadvantaged socio-economic positions in terms of education and labour market participation, hardly anything is known on the link between childbearing and labour force participation among migrant women.     

Objective: This article looks into the effect of first childbirth on patterns of labour force participation for women of Southern-European, Eastern-European, Turkish and Moroccan origin of the first and second generation in Belgium and compares it to the effect for native women.

Method: Using longitudinal data (1999 – 2010) from the Crossroads Bank for Social Security and national registers hazard models are estimated to compare activity, employment and full-time employment between first and second generation migrant mothers and native Belgian mothers.   

Results: For women who worked before the birth of the first child, the decline in economic activity and the increase in unemployment levels is significantly greater among migrants compared to natives. When controlling for family and work characteristics significant differences in activity levels between natives and second generation mothers disappear. Differences in unemployment levels stay large and significant for nearly all origin groups and generations. Women of Turkish and Moroccan origin are the most disadvantaged.

Conclusion: Stimulating employment and protecting positions among vulnerable migrant groups at entry into the labour market could be beneficial for the further development of labour market positions and for elevating employment levels in general. 

Email: tine.kil@uantwerpen.be 

Changes in dependency and years requiring care at older ages over a twenty year period. A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies
Andrew Kingston 1, 2, Carol Jagger 1, 2, Pia Wohland 1, 2, Louise Robinson 1,2, Antony Arthur3, Carol Brayne4, Fiona E Matthews 1,5, on behalf of the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Collaboration Affiliations 1Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medicine, Newcastle University,  2Newcastle University Institute for Ageing, 3School of Health Sciences, University of East Anglia, 4Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Cambridge University, 5MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Cambridge 

Background: Little is known about differences in dependency between generational cohorts of older people. We estimated years lived in different care states in two cohorts of older people studied 20 years apart and projected future demand for formal and informal care in England. Methods: Baseline data from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies on populations aged 65+ years in three geographically defined centres across England (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, Nottingham) provided prevalence estimates of care need based on Isaacs and Neville’s interval need, combining information on instrumental and basic activities of daily living, incontinence and cognition into four care states: (critical-24-hour care/short-daily care/long-less than daily/independent). Years in each care state (three regions combined) were calculated by Sullivan’s method. To project future demand the proportions in each care state will be applied to the 2012 England population projections of those aged 65+ years. Results: In 2011 men (women) aged 65 could expect to spend 11.1 (9.7) years independent, 3.9 (7.5) requiring help less than daily, 1.0 (1.0) years requiring help daily, and 1.5 (2.1) years requiring 24-hour care. Between 1991 and 2011 years spent independent after age 65 increased significantly for men (1.6 years, 95%CI 1.1-2.0) but both men and women had significant gains in years requiring care less than daily (men:1.6 years, 95%CI 0.9-2.3; women:2.1 years, 95%CI 1.5-2.8) and in 24-hour care (men:1.1 years, 95%CI 0.3-1.8; women:1.3 years, 95%CI 0.6-2.1). Implications: We discuss the implications of our findings and the results of the projections in relation to provision of long-term care. 

Email: carol.jagger@ncl.ac.uk 

Improving migration estimates using patient registers in Scotland
D. J. Knox, National Records of Scotland 

Currently the National Records of Scotland (NRS) use monthly data from the NHS Central Register (NHSCR), which records GP registrations, to produce migration estimates by single year of age, sex and origin/destination (pre-April 2006) NHS Board area. One problem with the data received from the NHSCR is that it is a record of all posting changes (i.e. changes in the NHS Board area in which a patient is registered) entered onto the NHSCR in a given month. Therefore, the data is known to contain some historic ‘moves’ that occurred before the last Census in 2011. Furthermore, in October 2014 work began to implement the April 2014 NHS Board area boundary changes on the NHSCR. This work is due to finish in March 2015. While this work is being carried out, the origins and destinations in the monthly data received will be a mix of pre-April 2006 and April 2014 NHS Board areas and, hence, unusable for producing migration estimates for the mid-2015 population estimates. In view of this, NRS have been investigating the feasibility of using postcode information in the subset of the demographic extract of the NHSCR database, which we first received in 2011 and receive monthly, to produce migration estimates for the mid-2015 population estimates onwards. This paper summarises the new method and the main differences between the migration estimates produced using it and those produced using the previous method. 

Email: Darren.Knox@nrscotland.gov.uk 

Population projections by health status for people aged 50 and more in Poland
Wojciech Łątkowski, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics
 

Population ageing and health deterioration with age are usually considered as main factors of an increasing demand for the elderly care. This trend would be mitigated to some extent by health improvements among the elderly, nevertheless the foreseen intensity of ageing will drive the increase. Consequently, population projections used to evaluate a future demand for care by referring to ageing advancement need to include a health of the population. The multistate projection model can serve for that purpose. However, this model requires adequate data on health changes of the population, especially among these age groups which determine the ageing process in the projection horizon. The paper presents results of data preparation for the multistate projection model for Poland which aims at evaluating the demand for elderly care in Poland. The dynamics of individual health among people aged 50 and more in Poland is examined by estimation of age- and sex-specific transition rates between different health statuses. These transition rates obtained will serve as an input into a multistate projection model. The analysis is based on the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) panel data for the years 2008-2011. Transition rates are estimated with use of both parametric (piecewise-constant) and non-parametric methods. The results confirm the well-known regularities: the risk of being unhealthy is increasing with age, while the probability of recovery is decreasing. Women have higher risk of the onset of disability than men, whereas recovery to health is similar for men and women 

latkow@poczta.fm 

Modelling plausible future trajectories of livelihoods, poverty and health in coastal Bangladesh
A.N. Lazar1, A. Payo1, H. Adams2, D. Begum3, M. Rahman3, S. Szabo1, R. J. Nicholls1, C. Hutton1, P.K. Streatfield3; 1 University of Southampton, 2 College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, 3 International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh 

Deltas represent one of the most densely populated areas in the world. This is especially true for the coastal zone of Bangladesh where more than a thousand people live in each square kilometre of land. Livelihoods, food security and poverty in Bangladesh are strongly dependent on natural resources affected by several factors including climate variability and change, upstream river flow modifications, commercial fish catches in the Bay of Bengal, and engineering interventions such as polderisation. The scarcity of fresh water, saline water intrusion and natural disasters (e.g. river flooding, cyclones and storm surges) have negative impact on drinking water availability and crop irrigation potential; thus severely affect land use and livelihood opportunities of the coastal population. Hydro-environmental changes can be especially detrimental for the well-being of the poorest households that are highly dependent on natural resources. The ESPA Deltas project aims to holistically examine the interaction between the coupled bio-physical environment and the livelihoods of these poor populations to provide Bangladeshi policy makers with science-based evidence of possible development trajectories within the coastal delta plain over timescales up to 50 years. Here we describe a new integrated model through its application to coastal Bangladesh that allows the long-term analysis of the plausible changes in both the biophysical environment and its effect on the livelihoods, poverty and health of the coastal population. 

Email: a.lazar@soton.ac.uk 

Reverse brain drain from the United States to Asia 1990-2010
Lin Chen, University of Oxford 

This research is aiming to answer the research questions: what is the trend of reverse brain drain from the United States to Asia during 1990-2010 and what would be the essential elements that influence the decision on return or stay for the highly educated immigrants from China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The research analysis is constructed following a path from macro to micro. The first section is background data analysis of general trend of return migration for immigrants of all education level from the United States back to Asia, The second section is descriptive data analysis focused on the return migration of immigrants who receive Doctoral degree in the United States, especially in the field of Science and Technology. The third section is preliminary regression analysis on return migration with country level data to detect the probable causal effects. And the last section is propensity score analysis with individual data to analyze the causal effect of technology investment growth premium on intention of return migration conditional on the set of covariates based on data from the first wave of New Immigrant Survey (NIS) in 2003. The empirical results for the individual data indicate that technology investment growth premium has positive effect on return migration intention, and the effect is higher for the gender group of women than men, and is also higher for the education level of under Bachelor degree than Master or Doctoral degree conditional on the set of covariates. 

Email: lin.chen@sociology.ox.ac.uk 

Risk perception’s influence on fertility behaviour: A genetic perspective

Lin Chen, University of Oxford

 

Email: lin.chen@sociology.ox.ac.uk 

Childbearing choices of Polish female migrants in Norway
Anna Lobodzinska, Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management 

The large-scale labour emigration, which has affected Poland since 2004, is made up of mostly young individuals, who are currently in their childbearing years. At the same time, emigration to the countries offering generous family and social policy instruments sparks a debate around higher fertility rates among Poles living in other European countries than in Poland. Poles living in Norway constitute the largest immigrant group in this country. Their number rapidly increased during the last 10 years. Although since 2006 male migrants outnumber female migrants, in recent years the rising significance of female migration is observed. In 2014 women constituted around 34% of the total Polish immigrant population. More than half of them are aged 20-39, and the number of children born to Polish parents increases year by year. The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between migration and childbearing choices based on the results of survey research conducted among Polish female immigrants in Norway. Childbearing intentions and their realisation are analysed in the context of eg migration histories, socio-cultural characteristics of regions of origin, as well as socio-economic characteristics of women. Perception of Norway as a ‘suitable’ place to raise a child in terms of social and family policy instruments is also considered.

Email: anna.lobodzinska@uj.edu.pl

Evolving interrelations in demographic processes and the Great Recession: continuous evolution or seismic shift?
Mark Lyons-Amos, UCL Institute of Education 

The Great Recession has had adramatic effects on many transitions in the United Kingdom, primarily a depression in employment and delays in leaving full time education as young people extend educational enrolment in the face of labour market uncertainty. Demographic responses have also been observed, through depressed fertility behaviour at an aggregate level via depressed partnership formation and elevated union dissolution. That said, it is unclear whether the recession had no only affected the rate of transition, but also the association between them. This paper therefore models the evolving interrelationship between five major transitions- leaving full-time education, employment, independent housing, forming co-residential relationships and having a child. Data are from the UK-HLS, a nationally representative sample survey, to make cross cohort and pre-post-recession comparisons. Preliminary results indicate an increasing dichotomisation of career paths particularly in the post recession era: transitions reflect either an employment focussed or family focussed path. 

Email: M.Lyons-Amos@ioe.ac.uk 

Family Structure, relationship quality of family members, and marriage expectations among youth
Catherine B. McNamee, School of Sociology, Social Policy, and Social Work Queen’s University Belfast 

This study examines how marital expectations among youth are influenced by family structure and youths’ perceptions of relationship quality among family members. Prior studies have investigated these types of questions but have been limited either by only concentrating on family structure or by using small non-representative samples to examine family relationships. As families structures become more complex it is important to understand the diversity within the complexity and how it may influence family outcomes, such as the various qualities of child-stepfather relationships. The aim of this study is to investigate both family structure and family relationship quality to better grasp how the family dynamics across different family types in early life experiences may shape marital expectations. The research utilizes intergenerational data from the National Longitudinal Youth Survey 1979 (NLSY79), an ongoing U.S. cohort study, and the Children and Youth of NLSY, which sampled the children of women in the NLSY79. Linking the mother-child surveys provides detailed intergenerational information including the relationship history of both the mother and child. Additionally the data allow me to measure the child’s perspective on the quality of relationships within the family system such as the child’s closeness to the father and the amount of conflict between the divorced parents. In the case of divorced or separated parents, the potential bias of gathering child-parent relationships from only the mother’s perspective can be avoided. Implications for future marriage choices and familial stability will be discussed. 

Email: c.mcnamee@qub.ac.uk 

Poverty measurement in Indonesia: an evaluation of measures and a search towards better understandings of poverty
Putu Geniki Lavinia Natih, University of Oxford 

Currently the Indonesian government measures poverty using a uni-dimensional monetary measure based on the monetary value of consumption (Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics 2013). Since its first inception in the 1980s, however, the legitimacy of the use of this consumption-based measure has been questioned. Responding to these concerns, this research aims to construct a supplementary approach to income poverty by suggesting a poverty measure based on Sen’s Capability Approach, which states that measurement should be based on “the real opportunities we have of achieving things that we can and do value" (Sen 1993: 522). In order to construct this supplementary measure, a mixed methodology is employed, using qualitative interviews and focus group discussions to select dimensions of poverty and their respective weights, and finally, feeding in these qualitative findings into the construction of a quantitative index using the Alkire Foster (2011) methodology. Within the qualitative step, interviews with 11 National level respondents in Jakarta, 9 District level, 13 village level respondents and 7 focus group discussions at the village level in Bali, were conducted, during July–August 2013. Results from these qualitative interviews were then used to select dimensions of poverty available within the 2011 Indonesian National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas), to construct the quantitative index. By comparing the government’s consumption based measure and the measure based on Sen’s CA, the preliminary findings within this research, although cannot be generalized to represent Indonesia as a whole, indicate that poverty is multidimensional; it is affected by other dimensions; income alone is not enough. 

Email: putu.natih@trinity.ox.ac.uk 

Modern contraceptive use among sexually active men in Uganda; Does discussion with a health-worker matter?
Patricia Ndugga1,2Allen Kabagenyi, ,2Stephen Wandera,2Betty Kwagal; 1University of Southampton, 2Makere University 

Family planning programmes have recently undergone a shift from focusing on women only to include both sexes. However, contraceptive use among men in Uganda is still low despite the widespread family planning programme. This study set out to examine whether discussion with a health worker is a critical determinant of male contraceptive use. The study used the 2011 UDHS. Using a sample of 1755 men, and Pearson chi square tests and logistic regressions, we predict men’s contraceptive use. Discussion with a health worker was significantly associated with increased male contraceptive use. 

Email: pn1g14@soton.ac.uk 

An Agent-Based approach to understanding fertility decline in Germany
Emma Nelson, University of Southampton 

One of the most robust and widely acknowledged negative associations observed within demography is that as the socio-economic status of a nation has increased, fertility has fallen. Despite extensive research into the causes of this relationship, we remain without a satisfactory theory of fertility decline that withstands empirical scrutiny. Te aim of this research is to question whether the Individualisation thesis, proposed by Beck (1992) and Billari (2004) among others, can be implemented in an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in order to understand the decision making process that leads to childbearing. This is being answered through the use of a semi-empirical model implemented in Netlogo. Mechanisms for how agents interact and make decisions have been abstracted from the Individualisation thesis. Novel data sources are being used to create the agent characteristics, most notably the Harmonized European Time Use Survey. This has been adapted to allow the model to investigate how time preference interacts with the decision making process and other characteristics such as relationship stability, employment and developmental readiness. The model has been calibrated to resemble Germany in 2010, using data from Eurostat and UNWPP 2010. Additionally it serves as an investigatory piece into the practicalities of implementing semi-empirical ABMs in everyday demography. This model is part of a wider research project that questions how we study demography, and aims to add to the debate surrounding whether ABMs can be a method for reducing our dependence on ever growing data sets and extending research to the individual level. 

Email: en3g12@soton.ac.uk 

Transition to adulthood in Britain: The analysis of life trajectories of young adults Alina Pelikh, Hill Kulu; University of Liverpool 

Globalisation, rising opportunities and labour market competition have led to increased difficulties in decision-making, especially at younger ages. Consequently, young people stay in education longer, postpone entry into the labour force and delay parenthood. The British pattern of transition to adulthood is usually characterized by early transitions from school to work and heterogeneous household and family formation. On the one hand, the strategic shift to a neoliberal welfare regime under Margaret Thatcher’s Government and subsequent housing crisis led to an increase in socioeconomic inequalities and to the diversification of living arrangements. On the other, during recent decades young people gained the opportunity to benefit from globalisation by finding their own unique way to cope with increased uncertainty. Therefore, the question arises as to whether or not de-standardisation in the lifecourse is a transitory case on a way to a new standard model of transition to adulthood. One way to address this is to focus on changes in the lifecourse observed by different birth cohorts; another is by socioeconomic groups. In short, do we observe an intergenerational transmission of demographic behaviour between the cohorts or is the influence of period effects stronger? In order to investigate the life trajectories of young adults I adopt a holistic lifecourse view and study changes in a number of interrelated life domains of individuals; their employment and education, partnership and family, housing and residential career. I apply techniques of sequence analysis and multistate modelling to the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS).

Email: Alina.Pelikh@liverpool.ac.uk 

A comparative study of self-reported health of older men in Russia and China Natalia Permyakova, Vicky Hosegood, Nuala McGrath; University of Southampton

Russia and China represent two different middle-income countries with contrasting male death rates: Russian men over the age of 50 years are more than twice as likely to die compared to Chinese men. This paper aims to explore, in a comparative framework, factors associated with self-reported health among men in the age groups of 50-59, 60-69, and 70+ years. Factors explored include: demographic status, socio-economic status, health-related measures and health behaviours. Using the first wave of the WHO Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE) in 2007–2010, two health measures (self-rated health status and WHO quality of life score) are compared in Russia and China. Overall, older Chinese men tend to report better health status than Russian men. The results of two separate logistic models suggest that Chinese men aged 50 years and older have better quality of life in older ages compared to Russian men. The factors associated with older men’s quality of life are similar in China and Russia; having no non-communicable diseases, being employed, and being satisfied with health care services. These findings fill the gap in comparative studies by investigating the factors influencing self-reported health of older men in Russia and China (as two countries with economic transitions and contrasting mortality profiles) using logistic regressions. These results can be applied for Russian health policies, suggesting the importance of improving health care services and introducing early health promotions for preventing non-communicable diseases among men as these affect their quality of life in later life. 

Email: nvp1g13@soton.ac.uk 

Childlessness among protected populations in the UK
Christine Pinkard, Jacky Boivin; School of Psychology, Cardiff University 

Research question: Despite the increased acceptance of diverse family types in the UK, certain people are still much less likely to become parents than others. These include populations who are protected under the Equality Act 2010, namely gay men, lesbians, and people with disabilities. The aim of the present study was to estimate parenthood rates and the impact of childlessness on life satisfaction among these populations in the UK. Methods and data: The sample was taken from the most recent wave of the British Cohort Study (age 42). When measuring the impact of childlessness on life satisfaction, life satisfaction at age 29 was controlled for to minimise selection effects (for example, people with higher life satisfaction may be more likely to have children). Preliminary results: 85.4% of comparison men, 11.6% of gay men and 11.1% of men with intellectual disabilities in the sample were parents. Parenthood rates among men with physical disabilities were similar to the comparison group. Among comparison women, 87.5% were parents. Parenthood rates were 34.4% among lesbians, 52.9% among women with physical disabilities and 66.7% among women with intellectual disabilities. Childlessness did not significantly influence life satisfaction at age 42 among gay men, lesbians, people with disabilities or the comparison group. Potential applications: Helping protected groups achieve their parenthood goals should be a policy priority. In the interest of equal life opportunities for all, the gap in parenthood rates must be decreased. 

Email: pinkardc@cardiff.ac.uk 

Life expectancy by socioeconomic position: The influence of household resources, social mobility and selection effects
Christine Pinkard1 & Chris White2; 1Cardiff University, 2Office for National Statistics 

Research question: Life expectancy estimates by socioeconomic position (SEP) using data available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Study (LS) are currently calculated using a priority order based on occupation at the earliest point available. The present study investigates the impact of changing these rules to use occupation at a later point. Erickson’s dominance approach is also incorporated, which takes into account access to resources at the household level. Methods: Life tables for five year periods between 1982 and 2011 were generated based on the highest of own and spouse’s occupation (and for children, father’s or mother’s). Life tables based on most recent occupation at a census were also generated to allow for social mobility over time. Health related selection effects on the socioeconomic gradient in mortality risk during 2007-11 were examined using cox regression, by adjusting for class of origin in 1991 and destination in 2001. Data: The permission of the ONS to use the LS is gratefully acknowledged. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. Preliminary results: Using the socioeconomic classification of the most advantaged spouse or parent lowers life expectancies of the most disadvantaged SEPs, increasing the socioeconomic gradient. Analyses on social mobility related health selection are ongoing. Potential applications: Reducing health inequalities is a policy priority in the UK. Accurately estimating the changes in the gap between the most and least advantaged socioeconomic classes over time contributes to assessing the success of policy initiatives. 

Email: pinkardc@cardiff.ac.uk 

Putting assisted reproductive technologies in societal context: A database of regulatory, economic, and cultural aspects of assisted reproduction
Patrick Präg, Melinda Mills, University of Oxford 

Within a few decades, assisted reproductive technologies (ART) such as in vitro fertilization have matured from a highly experimental technique to a standard medical practice, utilized in five to six per cent of births per year in some European countries. Interestingly, the take-up of and the access regulation to ART vary widely across countries. Our presentation has two objectives. 1) We will present a database that documents developments and differences in ART usage and ART regulation in over thirty European countries and several important contrast cases such as the US and China for the period from 1998 to 2013. Sources include the regularly published reports of the International Federation of Fertility Societies and ART registers. Furthermore, we will enrich this database with information on norms and values regarding partnership, family, fertility, and assisted reproduction aggregated from large-scale survey data sets such as the European/World Values Surveys (EVS/WVS), the European Social Survey (ESS), or the Eurobarometer. Strengths and limitations of the database will be discussed. The database will be publicly released by the end of the year. 2) We will present first findings from the database, showing the remarkable diversity of regulations, and will attempt to show how those are mapping onto long-standing cultural beliefs about fertility and family. 

Email: patrick.prag@sociology.ox.ac.uk

Parental status, life satisfaction and financial satisfaction among older adults in Thailand
Nekehia Quashie, Wiraporn Pothisiri; College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand 

This paper examines the association between parental status and the financial and overall life satisfaction of older adults 60 years and over in Thailand. It is based on logistic regression multivariate analyses applied to data drawn from the 2011 Survey of Older Persons in Thailand (n=18,208). We compare parents to childless older adults. Parents are separated into five categories based on the living arrangement with their children: coresident, next door, same village, same province, far away (another province/abroad). Childless older adults refer to those without any living children, including step and/or adopted. Net of socio-demographic covariates, health status, social participation and older adults’ preparation for old age, childlessness is significantly associated with older adults’ life satisfaction. Compared to parents, regardless of their living arrangement, childless older Thais are less likely to indicate that they are satisfied with their lives. In contrast, parental status is not significantly associated with older adults’ financial satisfaction. Notably, higher educational attainment and income, being in good health, participating in social activities and individual preparations for old age were each significantly positively associated with both financial and life satisfaction, net of parental status. While children may represent a critical component of the welfare mix for older adults in a familalistic welfare state, increasing longevity and changes in family structures that accompany population ageing require broader investments in education and health across the life course, alongside social services to help individuals prepare for later life, to improve individual psychological and material well-being regardless of family status. 

Email: Nekehia.Q@chula.ac.th 

Family structure and home leaving: A life-course perspective
Florence Rossignon, NCCR LIVES , University of Lausanne 

The aim of this study is to examine whether the recent increase in divorces and remarriages, which has led to a growing complexity of the composition of household, is likely to affect the propensity of young adults leaving the parental home. The empirical research was based on the Cohort study, a panel survey that started in autumn 2013 in Switzerland. Two longitudinal statistical methods were used as complementary approaches. First, sequence and cluster analyses were conducted to identify typical trajectories of childhood family structure, the event history analysis was used to analyse the home-leaving process and to estimate whether these childhood family structures are likely to influence this aforementioned event. Analyses, which were based on retrospective longitudinal data, show that individuals from dissolved households, such as step- and single-parent families, have higher odds of leaving the parental home than those who grew up in intact households. Nonetheless, the effect of the stepfamily only becomes significant when the interaction with the sex of the respondent is taken into account. Lastly, there is some evidence that people who experience a transition from a non-standard family structure to a bi-parental household are as likely to leave home as those who grow up with their two parents. As leaving home very early might have negative consequences on later life opportunities, the findings draw attention to the fact that the family structure is a significant determinant of the transition toward a stable and successful work and family trajectory. 

Email: Florence.rossignon@uni.ch 

Caste based socio-economic inequalities among religious minority communities in India
W.N. Salve, Shri Venkatesh College,Ichalkaranji 

India has four major religious groups, Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, Jains, and Parsis. Hindus constitute about 80% of the population of India, including scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, and other classes. About 18.8% of the population of the country belongs to religious minority communities. Muslims constitute the largest religious minority community with about 13.4% of the total population, followed by Christians 2.3%, Sikhs 1.9%, Buddhists 0.8%, and Jains 0.4%. This presentation is based on the following objectives: To determine the present position of socially and economically deprived sections among religious minority communities in India; to examine caste based inequalities among religious minority communities; to recommend measures to improve the welfare of social and economic groups among religious minorities. The present study is based on secondary data, which are collected from various sources like journals, government publications, newspapers, and websites. An attempt is made to discuss the socio-economic inequalities among religious minority communities. Religious conversion is a national issue. Social groups among Muslims, Hindu, Christians, and Buddhists are less socially and economically advanced in India because of caste based inequality, and these issues need to be addressed. However, social injustice, cultural and economic deprivation and the exclusion of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes among religious minor communities have a historical legacy. Key words: Minor communities, Inequalities, Education Poverty, unemployment. 

Email: wnsalve@rediffmail.com 

Beyond the strictly orthodox / mainstream divide: Applying geodemographic analysis to a small nationwide sub-population
Philip Sapiro, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Liverpool

The use of geodemographic analysis has a long history, stretching back to Charles Booth’s Descriptive Map of London’s Poverty, produced in 1886. More recent, census-based geodemographic assessments address the whole population of an area. The work described in this presentation is believed to be the first to use geodemographic analysis to investigate a single minority group within a national census. This presentation describes the challenges which must be overcome in the development of a methodology which allows geodemographic analysis to be applied to unevenly distributed minority sub-populations – developing a bespoke geography; accessing sufficient data; and devising a classification methodology. It then applies the approach to establish the degree to which the Jewish population in an area is similar in character to, or differs from, Jews living in other areas of England and Wales, using data from the 2011 census. Previous studies have identified concentrations of strictly orthodox UK Jews and have considered their socio-economic characteristics. Many other studies have implied homogeneity amongst ‘mainstream’ Jews and have not considered spatial variation. The work presented here demonstrates that there are indeed distinct socio-economic and demographic differences between Jewish groups in different parts of the country, but with a strong degree of spatial homogeneity. It produces a 7-class geodemographic assessment of Anglo-Jewry which can be used as a basis for further investigations, and it establishes the practicality of applying geodemographic analysis to minority groups. 

Email: p.sapiro@liverpool.ac.uk 

Visible but not counted: problems conceptualising and operationalising Accession White migrants to Britain in large-scale survey data
William Shankley, School of Social Sciences and Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity (CoDE), University of Manchester 

The 2004 expansion of the European Union has led to one of the largest in-flows of migrants in recent history; increasing the cultural diversity of Britain’s White ethnic population. Accession migrants are citizens of states who joined the European Union post-2004. This White migration is not historically unique, but differentiated by the level of development of the sending country, its magnitude and concentration post-2004. Cultural diversity within the White ethnic group has contested a shared White experience. However, this has not been reflected in large-scale surveys; capturing the migrants in an aggregate White Other categorisation; making it difficult to disentangle Accession migrants from other White ethnic minority groups in Britain. The Migration Observatory’s (2014) Census 2011 analysis approximated that 1.1 million people residing in the UK were born in 2004 Accession states. It is therefore important to consider how current survey methods conceptualise and operationalise Accession White migration in order to evaluate the impact of their migration. This presentation discusses the possibilities and limitations of examining Accession White migrants using existing large-scale British datasets. Specifically, the paper reviews how Accession White migrants are captured in the Census, social surveys and administrative data. It will then compare how the profile of Accession White migrants varies through the lens of these data sources and subsequently it reviews innovative approaches in data collection and linkages that may provide a route for robust investigation of this group. The paper argues that such reconsideration of how new White migrant groups are measured is important for an understanding of contemporary population change and spatial analysis locally and nationally in Britain; and causes us to disrupt well-established distinctions between migrants and ethnic minorities. 

Email: william.shankley@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk 

Measuring education from the present in the past - The construction of a global dataset on educational attainment in the 20th Century
Markus Speringer, Anne Goujon, Samir K.C., Jakob Eder, Ramon Bauer, Michaela Potancokova, Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU 

This presentation describes the first results and the methodology used to develop a Historical Human Capital Database based on two major efforts: First, the collection, harmonization and validation of datasets on educational attainment and literacy by age and sex in the 20th century (Speringer et al. 2015) and second, the reconstruction of the data gaps in the time series based on the multi-dimensional cohort-component projection method, that can be used for back-projecting populations. (K.C. et al. 2015) The first base for the backprojection model is the data on educational attainment gathered for the Wittgenstein Centre new projection round which allows us to reconstruct the past until 1970 (Bauer et al. 2012; Lutz, Butz, and KC 2014). However more data points are needed. So far most endeavors aiming at collecting data plus systematically reconstructing and modelling detailed information on past levels of education and literacy (by age and sex) of the population have stopped at 1950 or after (Lutz et al. 2007; Barro and Lee 2013; de la Fuente and Doménech 2012). A longer perspective can advance our knowledge of human capital formation and its consequences on demographic, socio-economic, political and technological changes as human capital advancement is highly path dependent (Lutz et al. 2007; Goldin and Katz 2008). The resulting Historical Human Capital Database will enable more precise study of these interdependencies and, in the long-term, a possibly better understanding of the shape of the future..

Email: markus.speringer@oeaw.ac.at 

Remittances, food insecurity and gender: evidence from Bangladesh
Sylvia Szabo, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Zoe Matthews; University of Southampton 

There is limited evidence investigating the impact of remittances on food security in Bangladesh, despite the fact that remittances account for 9.2% of the country’s GDP. The present study aims to fill this lacuna by examining the impact of remittances on food security in rural and urban Bangladesh. The paper draws from the conceptual analysis developed by Zezza et al. (2011) which outlines the pathways between migration, nutrition and food consumption. The study makes use of the data from 2010 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), which are analysed by means of logistic and multinomial regression models. The outcome variables are the indicators of food security based on expenditure on food items, diet diversity and energy intake of household members. The key explanatory variables include whether a household received remittances, the amount of remittances received, gender, and household-level socio-economic characteristics. Our results suggest that remittances have a significant positive impact on food security regardless of the indicator used. The results further suggest that, ceteris paribus, women are significantly more likely to be food insecure when it comes to calorie intake, but not access to food. Finally, we find that wealth and geographical location but not working status are significant predictors of food security status. The paper concludes by providing several policy recommendations in the context of the proposed SDG agenda. 

Email: s.m.szabo@soton.ac.uk 

How deep are your roots? A measurement of the age of individual ancestral roots in a given territory
Marc Tremblay Université du Québec à Chicoutimi 

This study uses a new method to measure the depth of ancestral roots in a population, reflecting the origins of all ancestors that can be identified in this population. Places and dates of marriage of ancestors were used to measure the age of individual regional roots, which can detect and characterize individuals who are deeply rooted in a given territory. For the purpose of this study, a genealogical dataset composed of 17 regional samples from the Quebec (Canada) population was constructed using data from the BALSAC population register (http://balsac.uqac.ca/). Each regional sample contained 300 ascending genealogies going back nearly 400 years. Regional founders were first identified for each contemporary subject (the starting points of the genealogies). These founders are the last ancestors (going up every genealogical branch) married in the same region as the subject. Age of individual roots was calculated by weighting each regional founder, taking into account his genetic contribution to the subject and the number of years between the founder’s marriage and that of the subject. Results show significant individual and regional variations. The average regional ages vary between 16 and 157 years, while some individual roots reach as far back as 300 years in the same region. The proposed method can be useful for assessing how deeply rooted is a population at a local, regional or other geographical level. 

Email: marc.tremblay@uqac.ca 

Educational inequalities in repeat abortion: A longitudinal register study in Finland 1975-2010
Heini Väisänen, London School of Economics and Political Science 

Background: The proportion of repeat abortions among all abortions has increased over last decades in Finland. Few studies have examined how education is associated with the likelihood of repeat abortion and whether the association has changed over time using reliable longitudinal data, although it may help create interventions aimed at avoiding such procedures. Data and Methods: This study analyses a unique set of Finnish register data of three birth cohorts (born in 1955-59, 1965-69 and 1975-79) followed from age 20 to 45 including approximately 270,000 women, about 22,000 of which had repeat abortions. These data overcome the common problems of underreporting of abortions and attrition in surveys ensuring the results are reliable, unique and of interest internationally. The data were analysed using discrete-time event-history models separately for second and third abortions. Results: Low education was associated with a higher likelihood of repeat abortion. Women with low education had abortions sooner after the preceding abortion, were more often single, younger and had larger families at the time of abortion than the highly educated. The educational differences were more significant for the 1960-70s birth cohorts than for the 1950s cohort. Conclusions: The high likelihood of repeat abortion associated with low educational level shows a lack of appropriate contraceptive use possibly due to lack of knowledge or access to services. An effort to improve access to family planning services for all women needs to take place and contraceptives should be provided for free. 

Email: h.e.vaisanen@lse.ac.uk 

Universal health coverage in the Ccntext of population ageing: Spatial analysis of the enrolment in the National Health Insurance scheme in Ghana
Nele van der Wielen, University of Southampton 

The 2010 National Health Insurance Authority Report (NHIA) stated that the enrolment rate in the mandatory National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in Ghana was as low as 34%. The NHIS was introduced to offer affordable access to health care to all people in Ghana. There are fears that the NHIS may now collapse due to this lack of uptake. It is crucial to understand which factors determine the enrolment in the NHIS to shape policies. With the help of the Study on the Study of Global Ageing and Adult Health, this paper determines the factors that explain NHIS participation among older adults in Ghana. It is dangerous to marginalise older adults in health care research as they are the main users of health care. With the help of multilevel modelling this paper showed that the likelihood to be enrolled in an insurance program increased with wealth and education. Females had higher odds of being enrolled in the NHIS comparted to males. While other studies already examined some demographic and socio economic factors that influence the NHIS membership this paper also shows a micro level understanding of the NHIS affiliation among older adults using GIS information. The paper identified those administrative areas where people are in the greatest need of a free access and showed that they are mainly located in the West of Ghana. This information is essential for policymakers to develop a strategy to increase the NHIS enrolment. 

Email: n.van-der-wielen@soton.ac.uk 

Educational level and early adulthood transitions following the end of education
Jorik Vergauwen, David de Wachter; University of Antwerp

The remarkable changes in living arrangements and fertility behaviour among young European adults have been at the forefront of academic research on families and households. A bulk of literature has addressed questions on how education shapes these transitions to adulthood. This sheds light on the meaning and motivations behind these changes. Previous studies provide mixed results depending on the country or region of interest, age groups of analysis, methods and measures,… An important issue in comparing different educational groups is tackling timing differences resulting from varying lengths of school careers. Hence, this study focuses on educational differentials in adulthood transitions after graduation. It aims to provide answers on following questions. i) Are educational gradients in living arrangements mere timing effects? Or alternatively ii) do educational differentials in living arrangements indicate particular features that relate to education? Using data provided by the Harmonized Histories partnership and childbearing histories for 5 European countries (Belgium, France, Norway, Bulgaria, and Russia) are examined for female birth-cohorts 1950-1979. Individuals are observed during their first 10 years after graduation to investigate educational differentials in proportions ever been and time spent in different living arrangements. The analyses reveal that educational levels are differently linked to certain living arrangements after graduation. Female school-levers with a low education are more inclined to live at the parental home after finishing school. Better educated women, in contrast, proceed to marriage earlier. Educational differentials in early adulthood transitions are therefore suggested to not only result from graduation timing. 

Email: jorik.vergauwen@uantwerpen.be 

Patterns of migrant mortality from the leading causes of death in England and Wales: cancers, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases
Matthew Wallace,  Hill Kulu; Dept, of Geography and Planning, University of Liverpool 

Recent UK research has found evidence of a healthy migrant effect, where migrants have low mortality relative to the host population. While use of all-cause mortality is important to uncover group differences, it can mask variation in deaths from certain causes. Low overall mortality can coexist with high mortality from specific diseases. The aim of this study is to move beyond all-cause mortality and research differences in the causes of death of migrants using a large, longitudinal sample (the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study). Survival analysis is used to study the mortality of 500,000 individuals. The study reports on the three main disease groups which account for the largest number of deaths in the UK (7 of every 10): cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases and cancers. Analysis finds low mortality in migrants, regardless of ethnic background, from cancers, respiratory diseases and other causes. There is greater variation in mortality from CVD, with high CVD rates in Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis (which can be accounted for by social background), low rates in Chinese, White and Other migrants and low CVD mortality in Black migrants which is masked by social background. Importantly, CVD is also the predominant cause of death in Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi migrants; this differs from the host population and other migrant groups, whose predominant cause of death is from cancers. Discussion focuses on genetic susceptibility to diseases, health and lifestyle behaviours which are known risk factors for diseases, and unique characteristics of the origin and host environments. 

Email: m.wallace@liverpool.ac.uk 

Socio-economic and demographic associations with multi morbidity of chronic diseases among older adults in South Africa
Philippa Waterhouse1, Nele Van Der Wielen2, Pamela Chirwa Banda3; 1Open University, 2University of Southampton, 3University of the Witwatersrand 

The coexistence of several diseases, referred to multi-morbidity, is associated with adverse health outcomes such as increased mortality risk, declines in functional status and increased healthcare costs. The development of two or more chronic diseases has been associated with older age, and consequently multi-morbidity is likely to be on the rise in countries experiencing rapid population ageing, including those in the developing world. Yet, the majority of research into this topic has been conducted only in developed contexts such as Australia, the United States and Europe. The aims of this paper are firstly, to estimate the prevalence of multi-morbidity of chronic diseases among older persons in South Africa, and secondly to examine the socio-economic and demographic associations with the occurrence of this outcome. With 8.9% of its population aged 60 years and older, South Africa has one of the oldest populations in Africa. Using Wave 1 of the Study of Global Ageing and Adult Health, logistic regression is used to examine the relationship between multi-morbidity among those aged 50 years and over and socio-economic and demographic characteristics and risk behaviours. 18.3% of the sample reported two or more chronic conditions. The odds of respondents reporting two or more chronic conditions increased with age and wealth quintile membership. Females, compared to males, and the never married compared to those separated divorced and widowed, had higher odds of reporting the existence of two or more chronic diseases. In contrast, rural residence, compared to living in urban areas, reduced the likelihood of the occurrence of multi-morbidity. 

Email: 

Health considerations when family change results in youth homelessness
Dorothy Wright (Henning), Jane Hocking, Louise Keogh; University of Melbourne 

Previous research has shown that young people experiencing homelessness have poorer health than their housed peers. Despite this, little is known of the health seeking practices and health knowledge of homeless youth or about how they navigate the health system without family support. Twenty-four young people aged 16–23 were recruited for a qualitative study and interviewed while staying in temporary, secure and supervised accommodation, known as youth refuges, in suburban Melbourne, Australia. Interviews were semi-structured and digitally recorded. The study showed that lack of secure accommodation and family support compromised the young people’s social needs, access to health care, relationships and opportunities to establish the healthy lifestyles important for long-term wellbeing. The pathways into homelessness occurred when participants experienced a change in family circumstances. They were either forced out of the family home or made independent or mutual decisions to leave. Homelessness reduced their ability to begin and maintain relationships and access ongoing health care with a regular health care provider. Multiple factors mediated their use of health care services, including the immediacy of their need, their accommodation status, an understanding of managing health, knowledge of health issues and availability of a suitable service. The study contributes to the field of health and youth homelessness with its identification of practical ways to improve the health of these young people, nationally and internationally. Additionally, the results highlight that health professionals need further training to understand the change of family circumstances, diverse backgrounds and health needs of young people experiencing homelessness. 

Email: dot.henning@rch.org.au 

What becomes of youths not in education, employment or training (NEETs) in the E&W Longitudinal Study?
Wei Xun, University College London   

The recent recession has highlighted the substantial scale of youth unemployment in the UK and worldwide. Although it is assumed that for most young people, being a NEET is a temporary hiatus and sometimes a necessary step in the transition from adolescence into adulthood and subsequent financial independence, for some the disadvantages of economic inertia at this stage in the life course can have long-term effects on their socio-economic outlook later on. The aim of this presentation is to investigate and compare how the influence of cross-sectional variables which are associated with NEET status have changed with time. Using data from the England and Wales Longitudinal Study (LS), we will identify NEETs from a representative sample of 1% of the E&W census population aged 16-29 years. We will draw samples from 1971 and 1991 for comparison purposes. In particular, we hope to investigate associated factors at the individual-, household-, and intergenerational-levels. 

Email: w.xun@ucl.ac.uk 

Dissolution of cohabitation: mapping of the phenomenon across European countries
Zuzana Zilincikova, Masaryk University 

This paper investigates the dissolution of cohabitation from the demographic perspective. Research is driven by lack of official statistics and also scarce previous research focusing on dissolution of cohabitation per se. The paper aims, firstly, to map the dissolution rates of cohabitation across cohorts and countries, and secondly, to investigate dissolution rates of different types of cohabitations – cohabitations with children present, childless cohabitations, first cohabitations and second and higher order cohabitations. The second aim is restricted only to more recent cohabitations that were formed after the year 1990. The sample of cohabitations is drawn from partnership histories from Generations and Gender Survey for 13 European countries and analyzed by means of survival analysis. The preliminary results show that cohabitations are growingly unstable for more recent cohorts in all the countries, although cohabitations in general are persistently more likely to dissolve in Western European than in Central and Eastern European countries. The analysis of more recent cohabitations shows that cohabitations with children and first order cohabitations face lower risk of dissolution. Moreover, stabilizing effect of presence of a child is more pronounced in Western European compared to Central and Eastern European countries. The cross-national differences in dissolution rates for distinct types of cohabitations are in line with notion that cohabitations differ in their meaning and diversity of meanings attached to them across countries. Results of this paper suggest that cohabitations in countries with higher cohabitation rates are more diverse, at least in their stability. 

Email: zilincikova@mail.muni.cz 

Labour market outcomes of ethnic minority graduates: impact of university choice, family background and neighbourhood
Wouter Zwysen, Simonetta Longhi, University of Essex 

This work focuses on UK-born ethnic minority graduates and their transition to the labour market. Higher qualifications should lead to more economic equality and integration, but this is problematic if they do not lead to appropriate jobs, as the literature shows. This can be due to differences in type of university degree, with ethnic minority members often attending more local and less prestigious institutes. Accounting for this, ethnic minority graduates may still be at a disadvantage if they do not have access to similar job search resources. These resources can be accessed through parents, but also through the local community and co-ethnic network. We therefore expect differences between ethnic minority graduates depending on the strength and average socio-economic status of the co-ethnic community as this will influence the information on jobs and the quality of that information. Those from a more advantaged family background would be less dependent on the local community. Ethnic minority graduates are also more likely to live in more deprived areas with fewer opportunities which can account for differences with their white British counterparts. Lacking information on appropriate jobs, ethnic minorities will be less likely to make a good start on the labour market than their white British graduate counterparts. This can then have long-lasting effects on later labour market outcomes. We test this using the DLHE and analyse a selection model to study how parental class and the co-ethnic network influence wages and employment 6 months after graduation. 

Email: wzwyse@essex.ac.uk

 

 

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