Census abstracts

 Strand organisers: Dr. Julie Jefferies, ONS; Kirsty MacLachlan, NRS 

Census analysis: Monday 8 September 4.45pm 

Creating population surfaces for the analysis of small area change
Nick Bearman, Chris Lloyd, Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool 

The exploration of population change over small areas using census data is hampered by changing zonal systems, questions and outputs. To make comparisons across time periods it is necessary to make geographical units comparable and to identify common variables. This paper outlines a project which generates population surfaces using UK Census data from 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 as inputs. The project will transfer counts from enumeration districts (1971-1991) and output areas (2001 and 2011) to a common geography and identify comparable variables so that it is possible to, for example, assess directly the extent to which small areas within the UK have the most persistently high levels of deprivation over a 40 year period. The paper details the methods used to generate the population surfaces; these are based on a combination of overlay of zones containing population counts with land use data (to determine areas which are likely to have no population or a high or low population density), followed by variable-specific smoothing of gridded surfaces. Some provisional outputs from the project, in the form of population surfaces (with cells of 1km by 1km) of selected variables (e.g. employment status) and difference maps (e.g. unemployment % in 2011 minus the equivalent for 1991), will be illustrated. The paper concludes by summarising the nature of the outputs that the project will produce, some possible ways in which the data can be used, and how the derived data will be disseminated. 

E-mail: c.d.lloyd@liverpool.ac.uk 

Health, deprivation and migration in the 2011 Census
Sam Wilding, David Martin, Graham Moon, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton 

Individuals with poor health are concentrated in deprived areas. This association may lead researchers and the wider public to assume that there is a causal relationship whereby deprived neighbourhoods influence individuals’ health. We argue that this relationship is explained in some proportion by the movement of individuals with poor health into deprived areas. Migration is selective, individuals with poor health move less often, move shorter distances and move into more deprived areas than healthier counterparts. This project uses data from the 2011 Census Microdata Individual Sample to assess whether working age adults with self-reported health complications were more likely to move, move shorter distances and more likely to move. The Census measures a residential move as a change in address in the 12 months preceding the Census, health is measured through a self-rating of an individual’s health as very good, good, fair, poor or very poor and whether individuals felt they had a limiting long-term illness. Multilevel logistic modelling identifies the key factors influencing the migration patterns of individuals nested within Local Authorities. Results indicate that those with poor health are less likely to move, move shorter distances and move into more deprived areas. The presentation will outline the research design and preliminary results. This project is the first to use the most recent release of Census microdata to investigate the relationship between health, deprivation and migration. Knowledge of how migration patterns affect the spatial distribution of poor health can improve the targeting of provision of future health care provision. 

E-mail: sw1g13@soton.ac.uk 

Towards Dispersal or Congregation? Spatial and Socio-Economic Characteristics of Smaller Cultural Groups in England and Wales
Philip Sapiro, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Liverpool 

Census output confirms that England and Wales is the home to a large number of ethnic and religion-based groups; these groups might collectively be referred to as cultural groups. Many of the larger of these groups have been the subject of much research; however, this presentation focuses on five smaller groups – Arabs, Buddhists, Chinese, Jews, and Sikhs – each of which constitutes only about half of one per cent of the England and Wales population. Most of these groups have individually received limited attention and this is the first study to consider them in parallel, making use of data from the 2011 census. The primary focus of the paper is the spatial distribution of the groups, set in the context of a brief examination of socio-economic differences. In addition to presenting information in terms of traditional distribution indices, a graphic representation of the degree of concentration of the groups is presented. The work also specifically considers whether Jews, as the longest established of these groups in Britain, act as pathfinders for the future spatial distribution of other cultural groups. The results are used to challenge traditional perspectives of dispersal and spatial assimilation of migrant groups; positing that the benefits of congregation will prevent ultimate dispersion. 

E-mail: psapiro@liv.ac.uk 

What we know or rather don't know about the population size in Poland after the latest census
Joanna Dybowska, PIN-Instytut Sląski w Opolu 

The aim of the submitted paper is to explain the consequences for the quality of information about the population size of Poland resulting from the fact that in official statistics the “de facto” population definition is used, rather than the resident population definition recommended in demographic research in the EU countries. Using the “de facto” population definition means that a big part of migration outflow is “invisible” in the current register system and the officially published data concerning the population size in Poland are overestimated. In the paper we present the method of contrasting census data with the current evidence, which may let us set net migration as “invisible” in the current register system and in annual balances, and also may enable the correction of population size in the years between censuses. Setting the “invisible” net migration may enable finding out the real figure for population in Poland. We present results of the analysis concerning both total population in Poland and in the chosen region – the Opole Silesia - which has experienced for generations the most intensive migration outflow. 

E-mail: j.dybowska@instytutslaski.com  

Census transformation: Tuesday 8 September, 5.00pm 

Evaluating the feasibility of using administrative data in the context of population statistics
Kimberley Brett, Office for National Statistics 

Following the Government’s endorsement of the National Statistician’s recommendation on ‘The census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales’, the ONS Beyond 2011 Programme has been closed and replaced by the new Census Transformation Programme. The new programme is focusing on developing the strategies and plans needed for delivery of the following major strands of work:- 1. an online census in 2021; 2. integrated statistical outputs that make use of administrative data and surveys in conjunction with the census; 3. a recommendation for the future provision of population statistics beyond 2021. Strand 3 is continuing with research carried out in the Beyond 2011 Programme to develop an evaluation framework for assessing the suitability of using administrative data in the context of population statistics. By linking individual records between administrative sources and to Census data, a more informative view of data quality can be formed with particular focus on the statistical outputs being targeted. This presentation will highlight with examples the strengths and weaknesses of using administrative data to produce statistics about the population and its characteristics. Our results focus on the interpretation of cross-source and longitudinal linkage to demonstrate the extent to which the locational accuracy of administrative data can be relied upon to record individuals at their current place of residence. In addition, we present some of the challenges of producing statistics from differing statistical definitions, for example households and ethnicity, as well as variability in operational processes underpinning the collection and maintenance of administrative data. 

E-mail: kimberley.brett@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Delivering early benefits and trial outputs using administrative data
Natalie Shorten, Office for National Statistics 

Following the Government’s endorsement of the National Statistician’s recommendation on ‘The census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales’, the ONS Beyond 2011 Programme has been closed and replaced by the new Census Transformation Programme. The new programme is focusing on developing the strategies and plans needed for delivery of the following major strands of work:- • an online census in 2021; • integrated statistical outputs that make use of administrative data and surveys in conjunction with the census; • a recommendation for the future provision of population statistics beyond 2021. Strand 3 continues with research carried out in the Beyond 2011 Programme exploring the potential of administrative data and surveys as a future alternative to traditional Census taking beyond 2021. Building upon the concept of ‘Statistical Population Datasets’ derived through anonymous linkage of multiple administrative sources, the ONS plans to release a series of annual ‘trial output’ statistics to deliver early benefits and engage users with the development and evaluation of methods. ‘Trial outputs’ are intended to illustrate what might be realised from administrative data, in particular the range and frequency of outputs, and the potential for small area statistics. The first release will focus on local authority population counts at age/sex level. Subsequent annual releases will aspire to produce smaller area population counts and additional outputs on households, income and ethnicity, subject to data access and quality. This presentation will outline ONS plans to deliver trial outputs in the run up to the 2021 Census. 

E-mail: natalie.shorten@ons.gsi.gov.uk 

Plans for the online 2021 Census with increased use of administrative and survey data
Paul Waruszynski, Orlaith Fraser, Cal Ghee, Office for National Statistics 

Following the Government’s endorsement of the National Statistician’s recommendation on ‘the census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales’, the ONS Beyond 2011 Programme has been closed and replaced by the new Census Transformation Programme. The new programme is focusing on developing the strategies and plans needed for delivery of the following major strands of work:- 1. An online census in 2021; 2. Integrated statistical outputs that make use of administrative data and surveys in conjunction with the census; 3. A recommendation for the future provision of population statistics beyond 2021. This presentation will outline ONS plans for Strands 1 and 2: to deliver a predominantly digital census while making the most effective use of administrative and survey data in its design, operation and outputs. It will cover the challenges of providing a census in 2021 that is 'digital by default', while building on the successes and lessons from the 2011 Census. Main areas that will be outlined include plans to address the challenge of digital exclusion while maximising the benefits of electronic data collection such as data quality, real-time response information and reducing processing time. Strand 2 is new for 2021, and looks at enhancing the traditional census building on the understanding of the opportunities and limitations of administrative data gained in Strand 3. Challenges include considering the most effective use of administrative and survey data in: optimising census data collection operations, estimating missing data, quality assuring results, reducing respondent burden or expanding topics covered. 

E-mail: cal.ghee@ons.gsi.gov.uk 

Second addresses and an alternate ‘majority of time’ population base
Michelle Monkman, Office for National Statistics 

In our increasingly complex and mobile society, the number of people with more than one residence is rising. This brings new challenges for producers of population statistics, but also offers the opportunity to apply different population definitions and to provide alternate population outputs to meet user needs. For the first time in England and Wales, the 2011 Census collected information on whether respondents had another address where they spent more than 30 days a year. The purpose of the address was also captured, but not the length of time spent there. Census population estimates counted these people as residing at their permanent or family home, even if the majority of their time was spent at another address. In contrast, the Census Coverage Survey (CCS), a 1% sample survey, directly collected data which provides an insight into the length of time spent at an alternate address. Now, new, exploratory research has combined these two data sources to gain a greater understanding of the characteristics of people with second addresses and the purpose of these alternate residences, along with the addition of a temporal dimension not seen before. The work explores the potential for (re-)locating people to their alternate ‘majority of time’ address and investigates whether such a population base can be modelled from the data. A key benefit of the work lies in informing considerations and recommendations for the 2021 Census. Findings are also useful in helping to understand how Census population estimates may relate to administrative data sources. 

E-mail: michelle.monkman@ons.gsi.gov.uk

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