Poster abstracts

Poster session 6.30pm Monday 9 September (posters will remain on display throughout the Conference):

Why at the age of 15 years? An interrogation into why most adolescents have their sexual debut at the age of 15 years
Samuel Kojo Antobam, Gertrude Voetabge, Marian Smith, Ipas, Ghana

A good amount of work has gone into studying factors and consequences of early sexual debut of teenagers. Economic, social and some psychological reasons have been put forward to explain why adolescents engage in sex at early ages. The reasons range from family factors such as orphanhood (Palermo and Peterman, 2009), peer coercion and parental absence from home (USAID, 2008), dropping out of school (Morhe et al, 2012) to economic ones (Gómez et al, 2008). In all of these studies the approach has been to lump individual age points together, say early sexual debut before age 14, 15 or 16 years. But age of sexual debut increases more prominently at the age of 15 years than any other age in many sub-Saharan African countries. Specifically the percentage increase of adolescents joining the “sexual debut train” between the age of 14 and 15 years is significantly higher than at any other age. We are therefore asking what is peculiar about age 15 that explains this phenomenon. To answer this we need longitudinal data to determine the factors that influence many adolescents to start their sexual life at the age of 15 years, controlling for effect of time. But this type of analysis is hard to come by in sub-Saharan Africa due to lack of appropriate data. What we propose to do in attempting to answer the question above is to use latest rounds of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from nine sub-Saharan African countries and compare sociocultural and demographic factors that may influence this phenomenon. Where possible (For example: education, date of first menstrual period, marital status, etc ) we would lag the factors to reflect individual characteristics before they attained the age of 15 years. Admittedly this approach would not effectively deal with time factor, but it will help us to know some indicators as to why the age of 15 years seems to be unique in sexual history of many adolescents. We expect that sociocultural factors will uniquely explain why the age of 15 years seems to be a common choice among those who are not under any coercion at their sexual debut.  

Understanding imperfections with the Mid-year estimates
Mark Auckland, Neil Park, Rebecca Wright, Steve Smallwood

This poster proposes a holistic way for understanding and visualising how errors from each component of change in the Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates series interact together. The benefits of this approach are that the interaction of compensating errors allows a better understanding of how mid-year estimates may 'drift' from accurately measuring the population.  

Naturalization and earnings: A Sweden-Denmark comparison
Pieter Bevelander, Malmö University, Jonas Helgerz, Lund University, Anna Tegunimataka, Lund University

In the last decade several countries have changed its citizenship legislation in order to ease naturalization and increase economic integration among immigrants. In this regard Sweden and Denmark have taken different paths, where Danish legislation has been tightened the last decades and Swedish legislation, on the other hand, rather has been stable with no major changes. In Sweden an immigrant must have been resident in the country for a minimum of five years in order to apply for citizenship. In Denmark the corresponding number is nine. This study investigates the effect of citizenship on income in Sweden and Denmark and we ask whether becoming a citizen has a causal effect on an individual’s income, and when this effect occur. Using comparable register data from both countries covering 300.000 immigrants in Denmark and100.000 in Sweden between the years 1986 and 2007 we perform fixed effects regression aiming for a causal relationship between citizenship and income. When comparing the outcomes in Sweden and Denmark we expect to see differences due to the major differences in citizenship legislation in the two countries.  

The People Trap: The unforeseen Impact of Birth Control: Contraception and Abortion
P S Carroll, R Kandhari and K Amirthamoorthy

Since the 1960s birth rates have declined worldwide. Together with the decline below replacement level there is a lack of means to bring about a recovery in the birth rate in developed countries where there is government support for birth control. The decline in the birth rate is linked both to the promotion of birth control, liberalisation of abortion laws and to the decline of marriage and these same factors are a hindrance to achieving a recovery in the birth rate. In certain Asian countries there are significant numbers of sex selective abortions. These raise the replacement level, which is a function of the gender ratio at birth and female mortality pre-childbearing. Asian countries such as China and India, where there are significant numbers of sex selective abortions, are discussed with the implications for how population trends might develop in the future.
Health issues include depressive illnesses, low weight and premature births, breast cancer, ectopic pregnancies. Cerebral palsy is more often prevalent among children born with a low birth weight. Breast cancer risks increase with use of hormonal contraceptives and after induced abortions. Ectopic pregnancies are linked to use of IUCDs. Trends over time and international comparisons of the incidence or prevalence of these conditions are considered in relation to abortion rates and use of oral contraceptives, contraceptive implants and devices and other risk factors.  

Child tax, welfare benefits, and their effect on population growth
Alan Castle, Population Matters

Family Allowance was started in 1946 by Beveridge primarily to combat child poverty. With other benefits it is now an important part of many family incomes. England and Holland are now Europe’s most densely populated countries and the UK fertility rate is well above the European average. Our continuing population growth is contributing to environmental damage and global warming. Is there a link between welfare benefits and fertility rates? There is a long history of using the tax and welfare system to modify social behaviour (e.g. fuel, tobacco, alcohol). The issues surrounding family benefits are explored, including the impact of the Child Tax Credit of 2003, the new Universal Tax Credit of 2013/14, and the new cap on benefits linked to average net earned income. While there is little direct UK evidence that our tax and welfare benefit system provides an incentive towards larger families, ONS and European comparative studies support a link. Should government pay any incentive to families to have children? Any change would need to gradually remove incentives, but at the same time protect the poor. The recent Government review missed an important opportunity to create a radically new child benefit system to address today’s problems, instead of those of 1945. Successive governments have failed to recognise the need for a National Population Strategy. The paper finally gives examples of alternative approaches to the benefit system.  

An assessment of the input approach to estimate household childcare: the case of Plymouth, UK.
Hoayda Darkal, University of Plymouth

Household childcare is one of the most important unpaid production activities performed within home. The main aim of this study is to estimate the monetary value of childcare activities carried out by parents and to present an assessment of the input approach in estimating household childcare in the UK. Time use diaries were filled in by parents in Plymouth and used alongside available data on the amount of time spent on childcare in the south west. Using these data, the time input into childcare by parents was valued. Interviews with carers were conducted. Results focus on the difference between approaches, gender division of care performance and major trends.  

Living alone, partnership history and psychological well-being in mid-life
Dieter Demey, Ann Berrington, Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham; ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton

There is strong empirical evidence that psychological well-being deteriorates in a relatively short period surrounding a union dissolution, but also that experiencing multiple union transitions can have longer lasting consequences for psychological well-being. However, previous studies have rarely jointly considered the duration since the most recent union dissolution and the number of union transitions. This study uses data from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS) to investigate how the time since the most recent union dissolution and the number of union dissolutions are related to two indicators of psychological well-being, namely dissatisfaction with life and GHQ-12 caseness. The sample is restricted to 50-64 year old British men and women who are living alone and have ever been in a co-residential union. We focus on adults living alone in late mid-life as this is an increasingly common living arrangement in this age group and because their partnership histories are very diverse, with a considerable proportion having re-partnered at least once. Preliminary findings show lower psychological well-being in the two years following a union dissolution. Furthermore, psychological well-being is also lower for those who have experienced multiple union dissolutions. These findings are reported for both men and women, and remain unaltered when controlling for age, parenthood status and socio-economic status. However, the findings differ for the two measures of psychological well-being. These findings indicate that several aspects of partnership history are related to psychological well-being. Our approach also demonstrates that partnership dissolution is associated with lower well-being in the longer term.  

Synthetic data estimation for the UK Longitudinal Studies – an introduction to the SYLLS project
Adam Dennett, University College London, Belinda Wu, University College London, and Beata Nowok, University of St. Andrews

The England and Wales Longitudinal Study (LS), Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) and Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) are incredibly rich micro-datasets linking census and other health and administrative data (births, deaths, marriages, cancer registrations) for individuals and their immediate families across several decades. Whilst unique and valuable resources, the sensitive nature of the information they contain means that access to the microdata is restricted, limiting the user base.
The SYLLS project will develop synthetic data which mimics the real longitudinal data but crucially will not be subject to the same access restrictions as the national LSs. In this paper we will introduce two different but complementary methods that we will be adopting to generate the synthetic data – microsimulation and multiple imputation. Microsimulation will be used to generate a synthetic LS ‘spine’, mimicking the full population of individuals in the LSs but for a limited set of core variables, transitioning between 1991 and 2001. Multiple Imputation will be used to generate bespoke synthetic data extracts which match precisely the requirements of individual research projects.
This paper will report on the methodological progress to date, issues and prospects for the new synthetic datasets.  

The Census & Administrative Data LongitudinaL Studies Hub (CALLS Hub)
Chris Dibben, University of St. Andrews

The Census & Administrative data LongitudinaL Studies Hub (CALLS Hub) has been commissioned by the ESRC to co-ordinate, harmonise and promote the work of the three LS Research Support Units (CeLSIUS, NILS-RSU, SLS-DSU), with the aim of providing a more streamlined experience for users. The three UK census Longitudinal Studies provide a unique and powerful research resource for a range of academic disciplines. They also form a powerful source of research evidence for policy-makers, practitioners and third sector bodies.
CALLS Hub exists to help researchers find the information and resources they need in a straightforward way, and to promote the work and impact of the RSU’s to a wider audience. By bringing together the three studies, we can also highlight the potential benefits and possibilities of using more than one LS, either to allow regional comparisons or to build a national population.
The aims of CALLS Hub are:
• To enhance the research potential of the LSs by co-ordinating the development of new resources and methodologies.
• To enhance and streamline the user experience of obtaining information about the LSs and applying to use them for research.
• To increase academic impact by developing communication strategies to raise awareness of the LSs, promoting their outputs and facilitating their impact strategies.
• To increase the economic and societal impact of the LSs by working together with key external stakeholders to develop research projects meeting their evidence needs.
• To facilitate and encourage the use of multiple LSs for UK-wide research.  

Gender preference and prenatal sex selection against females in the UK
Sylvie Dubuc, University of Oxford

Sex-selection against females is well documented in Asia. Since the 1980s the diffusion of prenatal sex-selection against females (PNSSaF) has been evidenced in China, India, South Korea until the late 1990s and more recently Vietnam. In India census data from 2010 suggests that this practice has further increased and spread. A male biased sex ratio at birth among India-born women in the UK over 1990-2005 reflects the trend observed in India. This poster presents 1) updated results up to 2011 for the main immigrant groups in the UK using annual birth registration data, 2) a new method using LFS/APS survey data to estimate the SRB of the UK-born generation of Asian background and findings 3) an analysis/interpretation of the findings (including extend, trends, how the findings contribute to analyse potential factors of change and their implications).  

Estimating the geography of morbidity beyond 2011: An assessment of small area estimation techniques
Pierre Dutey-Magni, Graham Moon, Nikos Tzavidis, University of Southampton

Since 1991 the UK census has been asking citizens about their health, which has led to the production of small area health estimates that are crucial to a large range of fields, including NHS funding allocation, local strategic planning, and academic research. In 2010 the Office for National Statistics was instructed to review the design of the national census and to envisage alternative modes of collection. The current format for small area health statistics may therefore be subject to change in the near future. ONS research has highlighted the importance of recent developments in model-based estimation, as a route to producing future local population data. However, there is currently a lack of unanimity when considering which procedures may perform best given known constraints upon data collection and availability. Evidence has yet to be presented that model-based predictions can be used down to the micro-level to produce morbidity estimates.

This poster presents the PhD research design executed as part of the Southampton ESRC doctoral training centre. The project commences with a review of the potential of small area estimation methods for the continuous production of morbidity statistics for England and Wales. This is followed by an empirical performance assessment of model-assisted, model-based and microsimulation methods against existing census estimates for long-term limiting illness and general health. A simulation study will be conducted to assess exact bias, mean squared error and sensitivity to model assumption violations. Finally, an exploratory analysis will be conducted to assess how transferable the findings are to other morbidity indicators beyond those currently measured in the census.  

An investigation into wellbeing factors influencing development perception in rural Kenya: a structural equation modelling approach
Hildah Essendi, University of Southampton

While the involvement of local communities in their development is widely recognised as a key step in sustainable and equitable development, very few rural development projects in sub-Saharan Africa and in Kenya use this approach. Recognised as a potentially beneficial approach to meeting the needs of beneficiary communities, participatory development has either been partially used or not used at all. Where this approach has been used, the area of perceptions of development and the relationship with wellbeing has not been of major focus area. Instead, this approach has extensively been used in health-related and environmental studies with the aim of designing interventions to address the various health and environmental issues. None of the studies however has focused on the resultant aspects of the people’s perceptions on environmental conservation and their well-being. This is important because environmental conservation has a link of people’s wellbeing, including health, especially in semi-arid areas where rainfall variability has been widely recorded. This study sought to answer this question: Is there a significant covariance between the personal and economic characteristics and perception of development? Data from 275 households, collected at the individual level were analysed using structural equation modelling techniques to examine relationships between the Development Perception, a latent variable and observed wellbeing variables including SES, fertility, nutrition, education gender and health perceptions.  

Improving the methodology for estimating emigration at local authority level
Brian Foley, Michelle Bowen, Alison Whitworth, Office for National Statistics

Reliable estimates of annual emigration are fundamental to the production of accurate national and sub-national population estimates - these data are essential for planning, resource allocation and a broad range of public policy purposes. The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is the main component of the Long term International Migration estimates produced by ONS, which are considered to be statistically robust at national and regional level.

Given the small sample size of emigrants captured by the IPS (circa 1,700 in the year to mid-2011), it is difficult to produce reliable estimates of emigration from local authorities (LAs) in England and Wales each year. Therefore, ONS developed a Poisson regression model to generate emigration estimates at this lower level of geography. The model takes the response variable as the number of emigrants leaving an LA (3-year average based on the IPS), establishes the average relationship across all LAs between the response variable and a number of LA-level covariates (data from Census, survey and administrative sources) and uses this relationship to produce emigration estimates for each LA based on their respective covariate data for a particular year. The model has been applied to produce revised LA emigration estimates for the years ending mid-2002 to mid-2008 and official estimates for the years ending mid-2009 to mid-2012.

Certain limitations of the current model have been identified, such as the use of IPS emigration data for a redundant intermediate geography to constrain the produced estimate. These necessitate a redevelopment and improvement of the model by the Population Statistics Research Unit (PSRU) at ONS. In addition to incorporating 2011 Census data, PSRU are also evaluating the use of a range of administrative data in the model that either provide information on emigration flows or are indicative of areas from which emigrants are likely to leave from. The re-development work will ultimately improve the quality of the annual LA emigration estimates produced by the model in future years.  

Analysis of the probability of getting pregnant in Guadalajara, Spain, and influence factors
Beatriz López-Garrido, Azuqueca de Henares Speciality Health Center. SESCAM Health Service Spain; Roberto Gil-Pita, Azuqueca de Henares Speciality Health Center. SESCAM Health Service, Signal Theory and Communications Department, University of Alcalá, Madrid

Nowadays, in the developed countries, most of the pregnancies are planned. Fertility depends on many influential factors. Time to pregnancy is a fertility marker and its estimation can be useful to plan gestation and to determine influence factors. The aim of this paper is to study the average time in reaching a desired pregnancy in fertile couples, determining the dependency with some influence factors like parental age, number of gestation, frequency of sexual relations, pre-conceptional and post-conceptional folic acid use, menstrual formula and menarche age. For this purpose, a retrospective descriptive study over 491 pregnancies who reached a desired spontaneous pregnancy in the health basic area of Guadalajara (Spain) is carried out. The study consists in an anonymous and voluntary survey which is offered and executed by the midwife during the first pregnancy consult. After its accomplishment, the survey is deposited in a closed envelope guaranteeing the anonymity and the confidentiality of the data. From the results, average time to desired pregnancy is 7,3 cycles. This estimation is significantly influenced by maternal and paternal ages, the number of gestation, the menstrual formula and the menarche age. Nevertheless, we could not find significant relationships between the use of the folic acid before pregnancy or frequency of sexual coital relations, and the average to the time to get a desired pregnancy.  

Census 2011 analysis and dissemination methods: Unpaid care in England and Wales 2011 and comparison to 2001
Timothy Gibbs, Chris White, Michael Smith, Eleanor Evans, Office for National Statistics

Research question: How has the provision of unpaid care changed in England and Wales since 2001 to 2011? What new methods have ONS used to disseminate the data in 2011?
Methods: Analysis of the number and proportions of unpaid carers in England and Wales, by English region, by Local Authority and by IMD/WIMD deciles. Our dissemination methods, tailored towards the citizen user, include; short stories, interactive and static maps, podcasts published using Youtube and info graphics designed to widen the access, appeal and thereby impact of the census statistics.
Results: • In 2011 just over 10% of the population (5.8 million) were providing some level of unpaid care in England and Wales • The absolute number of unpaid carers has increased by almost 600,000 since 2001 • Unpaid care has grown as a proportion of the population providing it between 2001 and 2011 • The amount of unpaid care provided is markedly higher in some LAs than in others • The amount of unpaid care amounts to approximately 17 million working days in per week in 2011 in England and Wales.
Potential applications: The analysis and dissemination methods are primarily designed to engage the citizen user both in terms of the census and of official statistics in general, and as such could be used to inform the pubic debate, increase public engagement and thereby hold the government to account on this policy area by increasing public awareness. Furthermore the analysis results could be used by care charities and government alike in providing adequate support to unpaid carers.  

Travel to Work: A Summary of the 2011 Census Results
Tom Leveson Gower, Office for National Statistics

Using 2011 Census information, this poster will, through the use of charts, tables and graphs, present how people commuted to work in 2011 (including home working). Where appropriate, comparisons with the 2001 Census will also be made. Workers were requested to provide address details of their workplace. Using this information in conjunction with the enumeration address, presentations will be made of how far people were commuting to work in 2011. For local authorities, English regions and Wales, and England and Wales as a whole, an average distance commuted to work has been calculated. The key findings from this will also be presented. Distance and method of travel to work have also been analysed in combination with a number of other census variables: age, sex, hours worked, occupation, health, National Statistics Socio-economic Classification and number of cars and vans in the household. The most interesting findings from this research will be presented in the poster.  

Correlation of demographic transition stages with family structure dynamics and the world economy
Yulya Gubareva, Belorusian State University

Demographic changes may be less obvious than economic or political ones but lead to changes in matrimonial, sexual, family, migratory, moral and physiological human behaviour. A basic part of the demographic transition concept is periodisation of demographic development, which matches great historical periods (agrarian, industrial, post-industrial societies). In family structure, the transition from the family with many children to the nuclear family with two children and to the one child family and further to the decline of the family institution. Demographic transition is caused by social and economic changes including changes in material conditions of human life. Changes in living conditions are caused by changes in the world economy. The facts that world economic cycles cause changes in demographic processes can be assumed. Therefore, it is possible tо draw an analogy of the demographic transition stages with Kondratiev cycles. Due to uneven demographic world development and territorial differences, the examination of family structure dynamics of Western European states and attendant economic changes is appropriate. Comparison of family structure dynamics, demographic transition stages and world economic cycles proves a relationship between demographic and economic processes. In future such an approach could be used in forecasting of the demographic and socio-economic situation in the world.  

Household Position and Self-perceived Health: a comparative study of Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom
Jordi Gumà, Autonomous University of Barcelona; Gabriele Doblhammer, University of Rostock and Rostock Centre for the Study of Demographic Change; Rocío Treviño, Centre for Demographic Studies of Barcelona; Antonio D. Camara, Centre for Demographic Studies of Barcelona

In recent decades the interest of social sciences in health inequalities is becoming higher. Different social factors have been analyzed to assess its relationship with health. Among these factors, marital status and household arrangements are becoming more important in the current literature. We propose a new approach in order to study the association between health status and household arrangements: the analysis of the effect of the individual’s position within the household instead of using the household as the context. The position within the household is defined according to: the partnership situation, living with children and the relationship with the family nucleus. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess whether the change of an individual’s position within the household affects self-perceived health in Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom. We compare these three countries due to their evolution in the household diversification and their own model of the European welfare state. We apply panel logistic regression models to the longitudinal microdata of EU-SILC from 2004 to 2009 in order to get our aim. The preliminary results show that though this factor is statistically significant in the three cases, the direction of the relationship is different in each country. The United Kingdom and Germany show similar profiles whereas Spain follows a different pattern. Higher social acceptance of new household profiles as well as a lower range of gender differences in Germany and United Kingdom are proposed as possible reason to explain the dissimilarities found between these two countries and Spain.  

Census 2011 analysis on migration
Lorraine Ireland, Office for National Statistics

The Census 2011 data released to date allows us to produce analysis of international migration in England and Wales. Key variables used to define international migrants include: country of birth and passports held (to determine nationality); although country of birth has featured in previous censuses in England and Wales, the 2011 Census was the first to ask about passports (used to determine nationality) and to enumerate short-term residents. The Census Analysis Unit (CAU) at ONS have published a number of stories on migration arising from the 2011 Census data. These include analysis of non-UK born and non-UK nationals in the usually resident population and of short term residents in England and Wales. The presentation will highlight some of the key findings from these short stories, highlighting also future planned analyses of migrant populations using more complex multivariate data tables from the 2011 Census.  

Implications of Polish migrants’ reproductive behaviour for settlement decisions in the United Kingdom
Barbara Janta, University of Warwick

The recent migration of Polish people to the United Kingdom has had a major impact on the British and Polish populations and on these countries’ labour markets. However, there is considerable uncertainty about whether recent Polish settlement is permanent or will be reversed. Decisions to stay in the UK or to return to Poland are always subject to a complex set of factors, such as, for instance, motivations for migration, employment and education opportunities, and the welfare system. Many of these socio-economic factors have been explored by researchers focusing on Polish migrants in the UK. In this article we focus on the fertility behaviour of migrants, which we feel has not been paid sufficient attention to date, and we argue that childbearing decisions are a crucial factor in determining settlement decisions. The child-bearing decisions of migrants is an important topic to study because it is related to the individual/family motivation for migration, the career and life plans of migrants and the response of migrants to national differences in social policy. Despite the broad literature on Polish migrants in the UK, analysis of the reproductive behaviour of Polish migrants is still scarce. In this paper, we provide analysis of the trend in births to Polish mothers in the UK between 2004 and 2010 based on the birth registration data. Based on this analysis, we discuss potential socio-economic implications of Polish migrants’ reproductive behaviour for settlement decisions, demographic trends, the labour market and public services both in the UK and Poland.  

The intergenerational transmission of the Welsh language: an analysis of change between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses
Hywel M. Jones, Welsh Language Commissioner

The intergenerational transmission of language within the family is a crucial feature which must be assured if language shift is to be reversed (Fishman, 1991). This poster will report on results from the 2011 Census, looking particularly at geographical variation. The actual scope of the poster/paper will depend on the 2011 results which are expected to be published in May. My paper to the BSPS Conference in 2009 ( )
will be a starting point for my analyses.  

Mapping the dispersal and deprivation of asylum seekers in Britain since 1999
Sarah Lubman, University of Southampton

Since the implementation of the 1999 Immigration and Asylum Act, asylum seekers who require housing support have been 'dispersed' across the UK, with the intention of moving the focus of settlement away from London and the South East. It has been suggested in local level qualitative research that asylum seekers are being housed in deprived urban areas and as a result are experiencing social exclusion. This paper presents the current state of knowledge in this policy area before assessing the nature of the relationship between dispersal and deprivation at a national level, utilising Home Office asylum statistics alongside the Index of Multiple Deprivation to map Local Authorities by their characteristics. Cluster analysis highlights a group of Local Authorities with relatively high density of dispersed asylum seekers and high deprivation levels, which can be identified as large cities in the Midlands, North West and North East. The Survey of New Refugees is a longitudinal dataset which records background characteristics of refugees as well as outcomes in their first 21 months after receiving leave to remain. This data is presented with cross sectional and descriptive analysis tracking indicators of wellbeing and integration over time.  

Household Estimates and Projections for Scotland
Hugh Mackenzie and Kim Reimann, National Records of Scotland

This poster looks at the key trends from the household estimates for Scotland, such as the increasing probability for people to live alone, as well as looking at household projections to see how the continuation of these trends could affect households in the future. In addition, the release of household figures from the 2011 Census provides an alternative estimate of the number of households in Scotland, allowing a comparison to be made between the 2011 household estimates and the 2011 Census figures. The household estimates are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every year and are used for a range of purposes including informing local authority decisions about housing need and providing service. The household estimates are based on Council Tax data; using this data it is possible to estimate the number of dwellings which are occupied or vacant as dwellings which are vacant or second homes are entitled to a council tax discount/exemption. An occupied dwelling is then considered to be approximately equal to a household. The household projections are produced by NRS every second year, with the latest set of projections being the 2010-based projections which were published in June 2012. The number of households is projected forward by 25 years based on population projections for Scotland as well as projected headship rates which are based on observed headship rates from the 1991 and 2001 Censuses.  

Scottish Mid-Year Population Estimates and Estimating Migration
Luke Main, National Records of Scotland

The National Records of Scotland (NRS) produces detailed annual estimates of the resident population as at 30 June each year. Population estimates from the census are updated each year, using the cohort component method, with elements of population change from the previous 12 months to produce the annual mid-year estimates. NRS are constantly looking to develop the methodology and since the release of the results from the 2011 Census the approach to estimating international migration has been improved. Estimates of the births and deaths in Scotland are well documented and both within Scotland migration and migration to the rest of the UK can be estimated by using the Community Health Index and the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) to estimate moves from the transfer of patients records. The process for estimating international migration is more difficult due to there being no comprehensive system for recording migration into and out of the UK. Currently NRS use the Long Term International Migration estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics together with estimates of age/sex distributions from the NHSCR to estimate international migration.
This poster describes the methodology behind the Scottish mid-year estimates, focusing on the approach used to estimate migration.

Union formations and job satisfaction in the UK
Elena Mariani, London School of Economics

Existing empirical evidence shows the existence of marital status and gender differentials in the labor market, especially in terms of earnings. This study investigates whether these differentials persist also when considering a measure of non-monetary reward, as job satisfaction. To do so I investigate the association between cohabitation formation, transition into marriage, arrival of a new child and job satisfaction in the United Kingdom using 18 waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991- 2009). Preliminary descriptive analysis shows that for a sample of working age individuals both men and women are more satisfied at work if married with respect to single and that married women are significantly more satisfied than married men. On the other hand, cohabitants are significantly less satisfied at work than single, and women are significantly less satisfied than men. Lastly, women with at least one child are significantly more satisfied than childless ones, but there seem to be no effect of having a child on men’s job satisfaction. These results only show differences in levels of job satisfaction among different groups and not necessarily the effect of marrying, forming a cohabitation and having a child. The analysis aims at deriving a measure of these effects by using fixed effects regressions to control for selection into family state and by discussing the role of selection into employment in driving the results.  

The effect of domestic violence on child mortality in India
Seetha Menon, ISER, University of Essex

The number of children dying, worldwide, under the age of 5 is estimated at 6.9 million (2011). India accounts for 1.7million of these deaths - almost a quarter. This paper investigates domestic violence as a potential contributor to this situation. Specifically, is there a significant causal relationship between domestic violence and child mortality in India? In India, where the subjugation of women is the social norm, domestic violence has been estimated at approximately 40%. In addition, violence against women during pregnancy has been estimated at almost 13%. The current literature has succeeded in establishing an association between domestic violence and child mortality, but has to yet present evidence of a causal relationship. Data from the Demographic Health Survey (DHS 5, India) is used for this study. This dataset contains information on child mortality, maternal health, socioeconomic status and anthropometric data. In addition a domestic violence module was also executed. Violence encompasses the presence of any of the three forms; physical, sexual and emotional violence. In order to overcome the inherent endogeneity issue of domestic violence in such analysis, an Instrumental Variable estimation strategy is used. The instruments used are the height of the mother, relative to the father and the price of gold at the time of marriage (dowry effects). Three models are estimated for neonatal, infant and child mortality respectively. Initial results show a positive and significant relationship between domestic violence and child and infant mortality and a positive but insignificant relationship between domestic violence and neonatal mortality.  

Unemployment and entry into parenthood in Finland
Anneli Miettinen, Population Research Institute, Väestöliitto, Helsinki

Recent severe economic downturns and increasing unemployment among the young has raised concerns about the impact of economic recession on fertility. It is widely believed that economic hardship and unemployment lead to lower fertility, with the male unemployment having a stronger effect on fertility than female unemployment. However, with increasing precariousness of male employment, women’s economic potential may have become more salient to couples’ childbearing. This study investigates the impact of economic insecurity and unemployment on the transition to parenthood among Finnish men and women. Although there is ample evidence of the relationship between aggregate level unemployment and fertility, mechanisms linking uncertain or precarious employment to individual fertility decisions are not clear. For instance, the effects of unemployment can vary by education and occupational strata, as well as by age and sex. Furthermore, unemployment may be linked to partnership behaviour, and financial insecurity may interfere with family formation at various stages. The analyses are based on longitudinal Finnish register data which includes information on economic activity, income and educational attainment, and vital events (births, formation and dissolution of unions etc.) of all persons resident in Finland in 1970-2003. Data allows us to investigate different aspects of individual and couple-level economic uncertainty on the transition to parenthood, and distinguish between joblessness and registered unemployment as well as the duration of unemployment.  

Assortative matching within co-ethnic and inter-ethnic unions: Evidence from the UK
Greta Morando, Alita Nandi , ISER, University of Essex

In an increasingly multi-ethnic society like the UK inter-ethnic unions will play a key role in determining what the future British society will look like. Such unions play an important part in assimilation and integration of migrants into the host society which may have significant impacts on their labour market outcomes. To understand these impacts we need to know the characteristics of the partners or more specifically the assortative matching patterns. Are assortative matching patterns among inter-ethnic and co-ethnic couples different? Does ethnic group feature in the choice of partners? Or is it that partnership choice is driven by socio-demographic characteristics such as age, education, attitudes and values, personality and the ethnic group of partner is just the result of availability. Individuals in inter-ethnic partnerships represent about 8% of the UK population. However, this is still a minority population and until now most datasets in the UK were not large enough or did not include relevant information to study these questions. Understanding Society with its large sample size of approximately 30,000 households and an ethnic minority boost sample makes such analysis possible. Using data from the first two waves of Understanding Society we compare assortative matching patterns across a number of characteristics (education, wages, age, religion and so on) for co-ethnic and inter-ethnic couples. Following Jepsen and Jepsen (2002) we identify potential and rejected partners to estimate the partnership choice using conditional logit method.  

Review of the methods and software used in the Sub-National Population Projections for Scotland
Ronan O’Kelly, Esta Clark, National Records of Scotland

This study reviews the system used by National Records of Scotland (NRS) to produce the Sub-National Population Projections (SNPPs) for Scotland with the aim of improving the methods to deal with a new migration projection methodology which is being implemented on a phased basis on a National level . Following the publication of the National Population Projections by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which occur on a bi-annual basis, the Sub-National Populations Projections are produced for each constituent country of the UK. In 2012, a review was untaken by ONS regarding the migration assumptions methodology used to produce the National Population Projections (NPPs). One of the key findings of the review recommended changing from the current system where migration is measured by net migration (immigration less emigration) to a new system in which migration is modelled as flows and more specifically to a system where international emigration and cross-broader flows are modelled as rates. While the change to rates is not been implemented for the 2012 NPPs, there is an expectation that a new system incorporating rates will be implemented in due course. Currently the methods and system used in Scotland for producing the SNPPs is only designed to deal with migration expressed as immigration less emigration. This study’s purpose is to examine if the current method can be adapted to use migration modelled as flows and rates or if a new system is warranted. The study will explore options such as developing existing in house software or considering other available products e.g POPGROUP.


Municipal-level census data in Russia: Questions, assumptions, analysis, prospects, with the Moscow region as an example
Anastasiya Pyankova, Higher School of Economics, National Research University

The results of the Russian Census of 2010 lay on the table several topics requiring further discussion. Prerequisites for this discussion are the change of the administrative-territorial structure of Russia after the reform of municipal government in 2006 and the amendments to the Census Law made prior to Census 2010. Our poster is devoted to the discussion of the following issues: • Are the changes in population size and structure that took place in 2002-2010 realistic and plausible? • What might have caused these changes? • How comparable is municipal-level data for 2002 and 2010 censuses? ; We have been carrying out research on the example of Moscow region, which according to the census data faced population growth of 7% or nearly +480 thousand people over the period 2002-2010. The structure of this population increase and its spatial distribution will be shown in the poster. During this period the increase in the rural population was almost twice as high as that in urban areas: +11% and +6.3% correspondingly. Rural population increased up to 30-50% in some municipalities, while changes in the same areas of the urban population were fairly minor or even negative over the intercensal period. This significant rise in the rural population could be related with changes concerning data capture of the population living in collective households. This ‘non-demographic’ factor distorts denominator for demographic rates for municipalities, affects on an allocation budget funds depending on the population in the municipality. In addition poster will show a disparity in population of small units (municipalities) between 2010 census data and the estimates for 2010 based on 2002 census data, vital and migration statistics. This approach allows us to identify the municipalities where the census data is questionable and the population changes cannot be explained by demographic events (vital and migration), even taking into account the incompleteness of migration statistics.  

Family stability and child development
Abigail Rimmer, University of York

The poster is an examination of how family change might affect the socio-emotional and cognitive development of young children. Recent work in the field of families and children’s outcomes has established that it is change in parental partnerships to which children are exposed that is important for children’s well-being. Building on this approach has led me to the formulation of a bipartite definition of family change focusing on the changes in resident parent(s) partnerships and additionally the composition of the child’s sibling group, with the introduction of half siblings to a child’s sibling group being of particular interest. I argue that family change does not directly impact on children’s outcomes, but instead the instability of the parenting environment represented by family change is an important determinant by making the establishment and maintenance of positive parenting routines more difficult. An investigation of the role of family change in outcomes for young children has been carried out using the Millennium Cohort Study, because this study includes children’s family structure data at the age of 9 months, 3, 5 and 7 years together with a range of socio-emotional and cognitive indicators at 3, 5 and 7 years old. A series of regression models have been fitted to test the hypothesis outlined above and the results of these models will be presented.  

Children from broken families and stepfamilies leave home early
Annette Roest, Carel Harmsen, Statistics Netherlands

Children in lone parent families and stepfamilies tend to leave home earlier then children in intact families. In this research push and pull factors are determined which influence children to decide to leave home. The research question focuses on the age at leaving home and the household position after leaving home. Factor being researched are; - Composition of the parental family - Parental income - Parental education/own education - Regional location of the parental home. For this purpose integral data from the social statistical database at Statistics Netherlands were drawn. To answer the research question longitudinal data for one cohort, children born in 1985, were compiled. In order to analyze the effect of a set of variables on the timing of leaving home survival analysis has been used. The most import results from the analysis thus far is that children raised in broken homes tend to leave home early. Apart from this children acquiring higher education tend leave home earlier and live as a single. Children acquiring secondary education stay at the parental home longer and, when leaving home, more than average start living with a partner right away.  

Can maternal education hinder, sustain or enhance the benefits of early life interventions?
Ricardo Sabates, University of Sussex: Mariachiara Di Cesare, Imperial College

It is well established that education produces benefits that are beyond income and employment and that it is a key determinant of health, with more educated people having better health outcome than less educated people. This paper focuses on the benefits of maternal education on child nutrition in Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam. We examine the benefits of maternal education on child nutrition during the first year of the child life and at age 5. In particular we look at the combined effect of maternal education and early life interventions, such as access to antenatal services, on child nutritional status following the call of the early life intervention of the Commission on the Social Determinants of Health. We use data from the Young Lives Longitudinal Study a 15-year study of childhood poverty in 4 developing countries in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. We model child nutrition, as a function of access to antenatal care services, maternal education, and a set of key predictors of child nutrition found to be relevant (using a multilevel model). Our first key finding suggests that there are benefits of maternal education on reducing child malnutrition both at age 1 and at age 5. We also find that these benefits are substantial, with mothers who have the highest levels of education tend to have children who have the lowest risk of malnutrition. Our second finding is that maternal education can interact with other early life interventions to support a health development for children.  

Fashioning Age: A phenomenological exploration of ageing, fashion, gender and identity
Anna Mari Sadkowska, Nottingham Trent University

This poster will present ongoing work proposing a phenomenological approach in research and design practice to explore the experience of ageing, fashion, gender and identity. The project aims to develop a deep understanding of human actions, where fashion and clothes, as the communicators and mediators between self and society become the key to understand ageing identities. Decisions about data collection are supported by Heidegger’s philosophy and the concept of “Dasein”, emphasising the experience as the result of interactions between animate and inanimate entities. The methodological framework of my research involves psychological, participatory and qualitative methods; triangulation of ‘traditional’ for interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) methods such as semi-structured interviewing and ‘innovative’: personal inventories, design workshops and practice-based investigations. The interpretation and response to gathered information, from the perspective of fashion practitioner, will result in the creation of a series of 3D models and prototypes addressing older population and influencing their personal well-being.


Single, sexless and infertile: Sexuality aspects of very low fertility in Japan
Ryuzaburo Sato, Miho Iwasawa, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

Since the late 1970s, Japan’s total fertility rate has been below the replacement level at about 2.1 children per woman, and has remained below 1.5 since 1995. After Japan’s fertility rate reached what was termed as the ‘1.57 shock’ in 1990, the Japanese government introduced a string of policy measures, which included upgrading child-support allowances and childcare services, instituting and promoting childcare leave, promoting gender equality, and supporting employment of young people. However, there have been no signs of a recovery in fertility thus far. This paper examines aspects of Japanese sexuality and familial relationships to identify possible causes of very low fertility in Japan. By examining government statistics and publicized survey data, we observed several major recent changes in the aspects of Japanese sexuality. Both men and women marry later and less frequently year after year, and couple formation in advance of marriage among young men and women is infrequent. A few surveys indicate that the proportion of couples who are sexually inactive is very high, while that of young men and women engaging in premarital sex has been increasing. Postponement of marriage and delayed entry into reproductive life for women, without increased cohabitation and extramarital birth, necessarily increases couples’ concerns about infertility. We should increasingly focus on the aspects of sexuality when studying the differences in fertility levels among industrialized countries. In particular this paper stresses the deficiency of a ‘couple culture’ in Japan as one of the major determinants of very low fertility.  

Introducing the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS): Structure and 2011 Link
Ian Shuttleworth forNorthern Ireland Longitudinal Research Support Unit (NILS-RSU), QUB

The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) is a powerful resource for social, demographic and health research. It is a 28% sample of the Northern Ireland population (selected from 104 out of 365 birthdates) drawn from health cards and it links together Census and administrative data on births, deaths, marriages and migration events as well as information on housing (from the Land and Property Services). It has some 500,000 members. Special one-off links to other administrative data sources (with ethical approval and agreement of data custodians) can be made through the Distinct Linkage Project (DLP) process.

The value of the NILS will shortly be increased by the linkage of data from the 2011 Census. This will be completed and ready for researchers by the end of 2013 and will allow economic, social and demographic transitions between 2001 and 2011 to be described and analysed. By the end of 2014 a similar link will have been made to the 1991 Census. This will allow transitions over the twenty-year period from 1991 to be analysed and will provide a valuable insight into the changing society of Northern Ireland through the paramilitary ceasefires and the establishment of devolved government.  

Reproductive and socio-economic profile of urban and rural Roma women living in Croatia
Tatjana Škarić-Jurić, Nina Smolej Narančić, Branka Janićijević, Jasna Miličić, Marijana Peričić Salihović, Matea Zajc Petranović, Željka Tomas, Ana Barešić Institute for Anthropological Research, Zagreb, Croatia

The Roma (Gypsy) are the largest European transnational minority population and are characterized by poverty, social exclusion, poor education and traditional attitudes towards female reproductive health that all contribute to a high fertility reproductive pattern. In order to assess the influence of urbanization on the socio-economic status and reproductive characteristics of Roma women, we included in the study a total of 207 adult Roma women aged 18-72 yrs (40.6±13.7) living in urban (87) and rural (110) settlements in Croatia. The study showed that the Roma women marry young (17.5 years) for a husband two years their senior (19.6 yrs) and give birth to 3.8±2.6 children. Financially, the Roma women primarily relay on social welfare support allowance (63.5%) and child allowance (41%), while merely 5% are permanently and 17% occasionally employed. The proportion of the Roma women who had never attended school amounts as high as 39.1%. The urban-rural difference was not found in any reproductive characteristics (number of children, contraception, menarcheal and menopausal age, etc.). On the other hand, two important differences in socio-economic variables were found: urban Roma women compared to their rural counterparts more frequently have a permanent job (9% vs. 1%; p = 0.012) and less frequently receive social welfare support allowance (42% vs. 87%; p < 0.001). These differences in social and financial position of urban Roma women warrant a follow-up of this population to detect whether a) this trend will continue to spread and b) it will have an impact on reproductive behaviour and health.

This research was supported by the Nutricia Research Foundation (grant: 2012-36/2013-E7) and by Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia (grants: 196-1962766-2747 and 196-1962766-2763).  

Quality of life and longevity: the oldest-olds’ views
N. Smolej Narančić , T. Škarić-Jurić , J. Miličić, M. Zajc-Petranović , Ž. Tomas , Institute for Anthropological Research, Zagreb, Croatia ; S. Tomek-Roksandić , Andrija Štampar Institute of Public Health, Center of Gerontology, Zagreb, Croatia

Our study examines the perspectives on longevity and psychophysical well-being and relates them to functional ability of the oldest-olds from the Croatian population. The data from 300 subjects aged 85-101 years who possess preserved psychological and cognitive abilities (MMS>17) and live in old peoples' homes are extracted from the extensive anthropological and genetic-epidemiological study of aging started in 2007. In addition to numerous biomedical measures, the comprehensive structured interview was applied including the questions regarding socio-demographic and health status, medical history, nutritional habits, physical activity and quality of life. Two age groups were compared: 85-89 vs. 90-101 years. The elderly identified continuous physical and mental activity, genetics, optimism, family contacts and healthy nutrition as main reasons for their long lives. The older-olds did not complain more often about their health, mobility or independence, declared equally frequent unfavourable health behaviours (apart from physical activity) but had greater functional disability compared to younger group. They declared equally often engagement in different mental activities and their cognitive function was reasonably well preserved. They reported equally intensive social and regular family contacts but loneliness and the feeling of uselessness are among the main current problems of both age groups. As much as 40% are satisfied with their present life, and 15% report the age of 85+ as the most satisfying period of their life, both age groups equally. The interviewed oldest-olds appear to be well adapted to their lives. Their explanations, attitudes and preferences may help enhancing quality of institutional care delivered to this vulnerable population group.

A 'final destination'? Challenging the idea of settlement in sub-Saharan African 'transit' migration to Europe
Eleanor Staniforth, Centre for Migration Policy Research, Swansea University

The current body of research on African migration to Europe has focused primarily on the process of migration towards the European Union, but has neglected to explore migrants’ onward movements once they reach Europe. The concept of ‘transit migration’ has been widely used in the literature to describe the complex nature of many migrants’ journeys towards Europe, but is problematic in that it assumes that these journeys come to an end once migrants have reached their intended ‘destination’. This study aims to challenge the idea that African migration to Europe has a clear end-point and seeks to explore migrants’ attitudes towards settlement in general, as well as their decision-making process with regard to onward movement or settlement and their choice of subsequent ‘destination’. The study employs in-depth interviews, informal discussion and observation with African migrants currently living in Madrid (Spain) and Paris (France), and comprises a longitudinal engagement with a number of participants in order to ‘follow’ their decision-making process over time. The research seeks to question dominant conceptualisations of African migration as inherently threatening by taking a normalising perspective, critiquing the separation between ‘mobility’ and ‘migration’ which features in both policy discourse and in research, and drawing on the concept of a ‘global hierarchy of mobility’ in order to analyse approaches to African migration taken in Europe. Finally, the research will consider the impact of European migration policy on the lived experiences of migrants themselves, assessing the role which this policy has to play in provoking onward movement.  

New set of population projections by age, sex, and educational attainment for 171 countries of the world: methods and challenges
Erich Striessnig, Samir KC, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

The aim of this contribution is to present for the first time a new set of basic assumptions regarding the future of fertility, mortality, and migration that is currently under development at the newly established Wittgenstein Centre for Global Human Capital and Demography (WiC) for a total of 195 countries of the World. In contrary to previous assumption-gathering exercises, the new set of assumptions was derived from argument-based expert opinions. These WiC assumptions are the basic demographic inputs for the new population projections by age, sex, and education also presented in this paper. Compared to the earlier projections, the number of education categories increased from four to six to allow for more detailed disaggregation. The number of countries for which education data was available increased from 120 to 171, covering more than 97% of the World’s population. Initial distributions of population by age, sex, and education were prepared using most recent censuses (IPUMS) or surveys and the education variables were recoded to match the ISCED definition. Education differentials in fertility, mortality, and migration are mostly based on own estimations relying on census (IPUMS) and survey data, as well as on the available literature. Various methods of dealing with the differentials have been fine-tuned and some additional complexities were introduced (e.g. allowing child mortality to depend on the education of the mother). Finally, the education projections were improved by allowing country as well as regional trends in addition to the global trend to influence future attainment.  

Population Growth and Housing Expansion in the UK: Some preliminary considerations
R. Swann, E. Baird, J. Davies, J. Dixon, R. Douthwaite, I. Mairs, P. Vaughan; Population Matters

The 2008-2033 ONS projections for England indicate that an increase of 9 million in the population by 2033 might be accompanied by demand for an additional 6 million households, including a large increase in single households. A review of the literature was carried out, and an analysis made of current data and assumptions on UK population growth. The paper first looks at the relationship between UK population growth and housing expansion, in the context of both the ONS population projections and the new National Planning Framework, which in particular supports housing growth in London and the South East. It then reviews the impacts that increased housing may have on food self-sufficiency, biodiversity, pressure on water and other resources, increased domestic carbon emissions, and community attitudes to housing development. Recommendations are given for further work, which include: To assess how well the UK governments housing policy is effectively reconciled with its responsibility for engaging with the ongoing social and environmental challenges of climate change and sustainability. To investigate the advantages, disadvantages and problems surrounding a policy of net zero migration. It is intended that the paper will stimulate further research and debate on population growth and housing.  

Psychological distress of union dissolution: what does the average effect hide?
Lara Tavares, Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa and Bocconi University

It is well-established that on average divorce brings about psychological distress. But, as Amato (2010) points out, average effects may mask substantial heterogeneity in individual's reaction to union dissolution. The fact that on average divorce brings about psychological distress does not mean that all individuals experience union dissolution in the same way (Carr and Springer 2010). Actually, it might be beneficial to those who initiated it (Kitson 2006; Wheaton 1990; Amato 2000). The outcome studied relies on an indicator of mental health, psychological distress. The dependent variable is the change in psychological distress around first union dissolution i.e., the change between the level of psychological distress measured at the first interview after union dissolution (t+1) and the one observed in the interview before the last with respect to union dissolution (t-2), as (t-1) is likely to capture an anticipation effect. Our descriptive results clearly show that individuals are almost evenly split between those who gain from the union dissolution and those who loose. In this paper we are particularly interested in the moderation effects of gender, parenthood and union type (marriage vs. cohabitation). On the other hand, it is likely that the consequences of union dissolution differ according to which union breakdown one is looking at. Due to sample size limitations, in the analysis we will not stratify by union order but we do control for it which allows us also to see if psychological distress of union dissolution decreases with the union order. Preliminary results show significant gender differences. Higher union dissolutions tend to be less distressful but only for men. Working at (t-2) has a protective effect, but only for women. Having children however, significantly increases psychological distress for both women and men.  

When and how many? An account of women’s reproductive intentions in the informal settlements of Nairobi
Catriona Towriss, Ian Timaeus, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Evidence is increasingly showing that the traditional binary classification of fertility intentions into either ‘spacing’ or ‘limiting’ cannot adequately explain the lengthening of birth intervals in some Sub-Saharan African populations. This phenomenon is thought to be a result of reproductive uncertainty within a population. Survey data suggests that birth interval lengthening is widely occurring in urban areas, where a myriad of reproductive expectations exist and women face increased economic and social instability. Using data from six focus group discussions conducted in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, this research examines women’s perspectives on childbearing and explores their fertility intentions in order to determine whether there is evidence of reproductive ambivalence in this population. The results show that women desire long spaces between their births, which is a result of factors both related to, and independent of, the age of their youngest child. And, whilst they demonstrate certainty about the number of children they desire in their lifetime, it is also common to find women who have been unable to commit to these goals. Women’s intentions regarding the timing of their births and their desired number of children reveal reproductive ambivalence that is a result of the contradictory pressures on their households and relationships. This research aims to contribute to the literature on the impact of social uncertainty on fertility decision-making and to the development of birth postponement theory.  

A life course perspective to abortions in Finland
Heini Vaisanen, London School of Economics

Induced abortion is a major personal decision and an important part of fertility behaviour but it remains understudied. This study uses Finnish register data to examine how the socio-economic and fertility life course pathways of women having abortions differ from other women and how these differences depend on having several abortions versus only having one. Also, the socio-demographic determinants and cohort differences in abortions are examined. Fertility histories are related to other life events, so use of life course perspective is crucial. Previous studies suggest that high costs of childbearing, young age, being single, having relationship problems, low socio-economic status or education and previous births and abortions increase the probability of abortion. Consequences of abortions are not as widely studied due to problems in claiming causality and lack of longitudinal data. Nationally representative register data on three female birth cohorts (1955-59, 1965-69 and 1975-79, N=274,908) during their reproductive life span (age 15-50) are analysed using event-history modelling. Women having abortions are compared to women who had a live birth during the same age-period and to women who did not experience a pregnancy. The study solves problems previous studies face: lack of long follow-up time and reliable information on abortions. Moreover, it contributes to the debate about whether abortions are associated with adverse life outcomes. It also helps policy-makers to reduce abortions and if adverse life outcomes are found, it helps tackling the problem. Lastly, focusing on repeat abortions helps tackling the recent increase in the number of repeat abortions.  

Families in the 2011 Census
Folkert Van Galen, Office for National Statistics

Household information collected by the 2011 Census for England and Wales allows us to extract information on families. This includes living arrangements for adults, parents, and both dependent and non-dependent children. Comparisons are drawn with data from the 2001 Census. Changes in families may be due to changing attitudes towards children, marriage, cohabitation, divorce and separation. Distributional changes in family types, family size and the geographical distribution of types of families are also discussed.  

Do health inequalities predict population-level abortion behaviours?
Sandra Virgo, Rebecca Sear, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

UK quantitative and qualitative research shows that aggregate- and individual-level socioeconomic deprivation predicts a lower likelihood of termination of pregnancy and less acceptance of abortion, suggesting local ‘cultures’ regarding abortion related to one or more aspects of deprivation. Both demographic transition theory and evolutionary life history theory propose that fertility responds to changes in mortality, with established population-level links. The relationship may be causally mediated by psychological mechanisms causing individuals to lower their fertility as mortality rates fall, and controlled psychological experiments have shown that people faced with cues of mortality express increased/accelerated fertility preferences and reduced support for birth control policies. Health disparities may mean that perceptions of increased mortality and morbidity for poorer people might decrease motivation to terminate pregnancy when young, as proposed by the ‘weathering hypothesis’. Do area-level morbidity and/or mortality then predict patterns of abortion, particularly for those under 25, for whom termination may be seen chiefly as a means of fertility postponement? Multi-level models test for ward-level associations between mortality (LE; SMR), morbidity (limiting long-term illness; receipt of disability benefits) and ‘abortion proportion’ (proportion of conceptions ending in abortion) in English and Welsh wards aggregated 1999-2003 in age bands: under 25; 25-29; 30-34; and 35 and over. Controls are used for ward-level income, education, housing, religion, ethnicity, and access to services and local-authority level area classification and abortion service provision with adjustments made for multicollinearity. Interpretation is made in the light of ecological fallacy. Further research will test for individual-level causal mechanisms.  

Migration and health in England and Scotland: A study of migrant selectivity and ‘Salmon Bias’
Matthew Wallace, Hill Kulu, University of Liverpool

This study examines the health of migrants between England and Scotland comparing their health patterns to those of origin and host populations. While there is a growing literature on the health and mortality of international migrants, few studies have investigated the health of people moving within a country. We use individual-level data from the UK 1991 population census and apply the technique of logistic regression to analyse health differences between migrants and non-migrants. The analysis of the prevalence of a limiting long-term illness shows that on average migrants have better health than non-migrants supporting the notion of a 'healthy migrant effect'. Further, Scottish migrants are origin-selective but not host-selective while English migrants are host-selective but not origin-selective. Only English men in older working ages show significant health advantages over both origin and host populations. No evidence was found to support a ‘salmon bias’.  

ONS Longitudinal Study
James Warren & Kevin Lynch, Office for National Statistics

The project to link 2011 Census data for England and Wales to the LS database is nearing completion. After the inclusion of this data the LS will hold information on 1.1 million members and five decades of census data. The inclusion of 2011 Census data also means the LS will hold information on intention to stay, passports held, visitors, second addresses, main language and civil partnerships for the first time. It also means that for the second consecutive decade the LS will have information on general health, caring and religion. Researchers are currently testing a beta test version of the database as part of the final evaluation of quality before the database is launched in November 2013. Details of the research projects selected to test the database are shown in the poster along with the full range of census information available in the LS.  

Resilient families in the context of rapid urbanisation: Wellbeing of working mothers in Accra, Ghana
Philippa Waterhouse, University of Southampton

Increasingly research is being directed at urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa due to the opportunities and challenges that the rapid growth of cities present. The new urban setting has particular implications for the lives of women. Economic, socio-cultural and environmental transformations have resulted in the greater intensification of women’s burdens compared to men’s. In the sphere of economic activity profound changes in the social organisation of female work have taken place. Simultaneously, traditional patterns of familial reciprocity have weakened due to the dislocation of kin through migration and as a result of changing values associated with modernisation. In such shifting environments it is argued that women are experiencing a tighter ‘reproductive/productive squeeze’ raising the question of whether there are consequences for the wellbeing of mothers and children. In Accra, one of the fastest growing cities in the African region, previous research has found maternal employment to not be associated with child nutritional status. Nonetheless, whilst mothers may be successful in fulfilment their work and family roles for the benefit of their offspring this may be at cost of their own wellbeing. Using longitudinal data from the Women’s Health Study for Accra, this research examines the implications of maternal employment on maternal physical and mental wellbeing in the context of a dynamic sub-Saharan African centre. Results from preliminary analysis suggest that maternal employment has no adverse consequences for maternal wellbeing. Despite concerns expressed in the literature, urban families appear to be resilient, achieving competent functioning and wellbeing in the context of risk and adversity.  

An UK comparison of families with up to two children and those with three or more
Susanne Whiting, Population Matters

The UK population is projected to increase from 62 to 70 million by 2027. The paper compares families with no children, with two or less, and with three or more, to explore the factors surrounding family size, in particular looking at historical, age-specific, socio-economic, ethnic and regional issues. The analysis was based on data compiled by the Office of National Statistics and on ONS website data. The two child family continues to be the most common, and childlessness second. The total fertility rate increased over the last decade for all age groups apart from teenagers. In 2010 nearly half of all babies were born to mothers aged over 30. Fertility rates rose for UK born women, while remaining stable for non-UK born women. Due to the increase in foreign-born women living in the UK, their births increased from 13% in 1980 to 25% in 2010, (Poland the most common origin). Within religious groups, families with >3 children varied from 25% of Muslim, 14% Sikh, 7% Hindu and 5% Christian. Ethnicity impacts on family size, but not Socio-economic class. Regionally, large families are most prevalent in Northern Ireland and London. These findings only inform us about recent changes which have occurred within the UK population. While the ONS population projected increase to 70 million in 2027 is a likely scenario, the detailed changes described here cannot be projected forward with equal robustness.  

Introducing the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS)
Lee Williamson, Longitudinal Studies Centre – Scotland (LSCS), University of St Andrews

The poster will introduce the SLS and the datasets, the application process for researchers interested in using the SLS and outline research examples. The Longitudinal Studies Centre – The size and scope of the SLS make it an unparalleled resource in Scotland for analysing a range of socio-economic, demographic and health questions. Additionally, the longitudinal nature of the SLS is particularly valuable, allowing an exploration of causality in a way that cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time does not. In this way, the SLS can provide insights into the health and social status of the Scottish population and, crucially, how it changes over time. Scotland (LSCS) was established in 2001 and hosts the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS). This study links together routinely collected administrative data for a 5.3% representative sample of the Scottish population (about 270,000 people). It currently includes a wealth of information from the censuses starting in 1991, vital events registrations (births, deaths and marriages), Scottish education data, and with appropriate permissions can be linked to NHS health data including cancer registry and hospital admission data.  

Inequality in Health Expectancies in England and Wales: The role of Individual Level Social, Health and Lifestyle Factors
Pia Wohland, Carol Jagger, Institute for Ageing and Health, Newcastle University

The InHALE project is concerned with inequalities in healthy active life expectancy in England and Wales with a focus on the role of time, place and individuals. The first part of the project, now completed, concentrated on inequalities in health expectancies between geographic areas both over time and across different ages using cross-sectional data. The second part of the InHALE project, presented here, focuses on individual level information at older ages. We analyse two major longitudinal studies CFAS, Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies, with individuals aged 65 and over and ELSA, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, comprising individuals aged 50 and over. This analysis will provide further evidence on regional differences as established in the cross-sectional data analysis and in addition will address whether these variations are manifested through differences in onset of ill-health, recovery or mortality. The research question we aim to answer in this presentation: What is the relative contribution of individual-level social, health and lifestyle factors to inequalities in healthy life expectancy and disability free life expectancy?  

Marriage and reproduction in northern rural Greece during the 20th century: Evidence from seven settlements of Pieria and twenty-six of Rhodopi
Konstantinos N. Zafeiris, University of Thrace

Based on the civil register archives of the municipality of Dion, the life lines of the members of the population were reconstructed. An analysis was carried out in order to examine the reproductive history of women during the 20th century. The analysis was based on the life lines of different cohorts of women for each settlement and population group of the municipality in order to identify temporal trends, convergences and divergences of the demographic characteristics among them. Age at marriage and age difference of the spouses, age of the mothers at first child, birth spacing, age of the mothers at the last child, reproductive span and children ever born were the main demographic measures used in the analysis. The findings were screened out against those of previous work concerning the population of 26 villages of the Department of Rhodopi (Greek Thrace). However, because the original analysis for these villages was based on marriage cohorts, all the measures were recalculated for birth cohorts in order to be comparable with those of the Municipality of Dion. Findings indicate significant temporal and spatial differences of the demographic characteristics and an on-going fertility transition in the 20th century, which mainly represent the effects of the action of the political, historical, cultural, religious and socio-economic characteristics and transformations of the populations examined.  

Divergence of policy responses to lowest-low fertility in East Asian societies: A comparative qualitative study on Taiwan and South Korea
Yuxi Zhang, Stuart Basten, Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford

Most East Asian societies have finished the fertility transition and reached the lowest-low fertility threshold (TFRs ≤1.3) in the early 21st Century. The lasting lowest-low fertility rate in East Asia has attracted a lot of academic attention, but neither the Demographic Transition theory nor the Second Demographic Transition theory has been robust enough to explain this issue and its country variants. In practice, the lowest-low fertility levels imply a shortage of labour force in the future. Together, the accelerating population aging trends pose great burden on these country’s welfare system. Facing the lowest-low fertility “crisis”, each of these countries sets up pronatalist policies to encourage childbearing. Although these societies are similar in many ways, their pronatalist policies are by no means homogeneous. So, a comparative qualitative research on the divergence of policy responses to lowest-low fertility in East Asian societies has strong theoretical and practical significance. The poster will show the results of comparative qualitative research conducted in 2013. In it, we depict the demographic history and reality in South Korea and Taiwan; demonstrate the divergence of pronatalist policies in the two societies with evidence from policy analysis; and elaborate the different dynamics of policy making in the two societies with data from original fieldwork, namely interviews with policy makers, stakeholders and prominent academics in both South Korea and Taiwan.