Migration strand abstracts

Migration: Life course – Monday 9 September, 1.30pm

Spatial aspects of internal migration in Italy: a longitudinal approach
Alessio Fornasin, University of Udine; Corrado Lagazio, University of Genova

Whereas most research on internal migration in Italy to date uses cross-sectional data, this paper examines the phenomenon using a longitudinal approach. We study both the risk of migration over the last 80 years of individuals between ages 20-49 and the distance of migrants’ first and second migrations. Data were collected using an ad hoc Telephone survey, involving around 2,000 respondents born and resident in Italy. A Poisson model is used for measuring risk and OLS regression models for distance. The variables that emerge as most influencing the risk of migration are the subject’s place of residence and previous life-history. Migratory distance greatly depends on the migrants’ socio-economic background and reason for migrating. The main determinants of internal migration at an individual level are level of education and having previously migrated at a younger age.

fornasin@uniud.it

Geographic mobility over the life course in some European countries: Using ShareLife data to compare changes of residence over the last decade
Frank Heins, Corrado Bonifazi, Institute for Research on Population and Social Policies – National Research Council

Within the framework of the SHARE project (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe - 50 + in Europe) biographical data of persons 50 years and older living in 16 European countries were collected in 2008-09. SHARELIFE collected information on childhood, health, economic situation and employment, family events - such family formation and birth of a child - and on housing. The contribution examines the potential of this data source and ways to analyse the statistical information (a descriptive analysis and an event history analysis estimating a logit discrete-time model). Results of the analysis of the changes of residence over the life course are presented. The changes of residence refer to all accommodations, where the participants in the study have lived permanently regardless of the criteria of official statistics. The international comparison of the processes of geographic mobility takes into account the cohorts, the calendar years and the demographic information regarding the individuals. The analysis of the factors associated with geographic mobility is extended to the socio-demographic situation of the individuals and the major events over the life course (the formation and dissolution of the couple, the birth of a child, the job history). The event living together or marriage is the one associated more closely with a change of residence, followed by the birth of a child. In the conclusions the potential of the results of the analysis of the individual data to explain international differences in the intensity of geographic mobility and in the factors shaping geographic mobility will be discussed

f.heins@irpps.cnr.it

Migration motivations and migrants’ satisfaction in the life course: A sequence analysis of geographical mobility trajectories in the UK
Beata Nowok, Allan M Findlay, ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of St Andrews

An individual’s residence history interrelates closely with other lifetime trajectories such as family, educational and employment careers. These dynamic and interacting processes produce migration patterns that differ between individuals. In this paper we apply sequence analysis methods to investigate existence of distinctive lifetime patterns of migration drivers among individuals changing place of residence within the United Kingdom. Based upon migrants’ reasons for moving we link geographical mobility to various life domains, like job, housing or personal life. We use 18 waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and treat sequences of all annual observations for an individual as a conceptual unit. We cluster those trajectories using pairwise dissimilarities derived applying optimal matching technique. We indentify four distinctive groups of migrants and compare their satisfaction with life overall and with selected life domains. Since young adults are most mobile and can have very fluid residence histories we perform a separate analysis of them.

bn7@st-andrews.ac.uk

Migration: inter-regional patterns – Monday 9 September, 4.45pm

Migration in China: interprovincial migration trends in a transition economy
Tony Fielding, University of Sussex

This paper builds upon research published two years ago that tested four hypotheses about the effects of economic transition on migration flows in China: (i) that distance decay functions will decrease, meaning that the Chinese space-economy will become more integrated as capitalist development proceeds; (ii) that migration patterns will reflect the spatial clustering of peripheral Fordist accumulation in the Shanghai-Guangzhou coastal axis; (iii) that the flows will reflect the emergence of a 'new spatial division of labour' as the economic growth process matures; and (iv) that the flows will reflect the weakening control over migration exercised by the central state. It uses recently released 2010 census data to analyse the trends in inter-provincial migration flows from the late 1990s to the late 2000s. These analyses show that while the evidence favouring the four hypotheses remains strong, major shifts in the migration patterns have occurred. These shifts require us to revise dominant views as to the nature of the main migration patterns in China and of the processes from which they result.

a.j.fielding@sussex.ac.uk

Differentiation of Russian regions an cities by mean age of population as a consequence of internal migration
Ilya Kashnitsky, Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow

Migration (especially internal) changes sex-age structures substantially both in donor and host areas. As long as migration involves mainly young people, their relocation to the big cities (mainly regional centres) accelerates population ageing in peripheral areas and thus depopulation. Ageing is particularly fast in the Russian hinterland. Here you can find areas with the mean age of population exceeding 50 years. These processes are illustrated with the map of mean age by Russian cities and districts (more than 2000 areas) built on Census 2010 data. It shows the significant difference between large cities and peripheral areas. In general, Russian population is younger in the eastern national regions and South due to the relatively high birth rates and immigration. In contrast, the oldest population – in the regions surrounding Moscow and St. Petersburg, which have been losing its youth for decades – the "summoning force" of metropolitan agglomerations. It is estimated that rural areas and small provincial towns have been losing up to 40% of school graduates in the years 1989-2002 due to migration to the regional centers and major cities. The aim of this research is to estimate the scale of youth resettlement for the period 2003-2010 using the method of "shifting ages". It shows that the situation hasn’t changed yet. The work is accompanied by illustrative materials (diagrams and already mentioned map), which give an idea of age-sex composition differences of the population in large cities and rural periphery. Migration plays the key role in these changes.

ikashnitsky@hse.ru

Migration in regional groups: effects, tendencies and correlation with integration
Bezverbny Vadim, Socio-Political Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Department of Economics and Sociology of Knowledge

At present, regional integration is an integral part of contemporary social processes of globalization and internationalization. Today it’s difficult to imagine a stably developing country not being a member of one of integration pools and not having stable political and economic relations with neighbouring countries. The present article studies the dynamics and trends of the migration links between countries of the main regional groups in the historical aspect. As example, migration between the EU countries is viewed in close connection with the processes of deepening of the European integration and creation of the European Economic Community, the customs and economic union. The main hypothesis of this article states that the historical development and the emergence of the European Union, European Economic Area, Eurasian Union, MERKOSUR, Andean Community and other integration groups have changed the scale, trends and the impact of the migration exchange between the major regional group countries. The methodology is based on the methods of the statistical and graphical analyses. I will further use the correlation analysis to identify the relationship between the migration and historical integration processes. The indicators of migration exchange, migration turnover and net migration rate will be utilized. The data will come from the official statistics of the Eurostat, the UN and the OECD. At present time the article «Migration between the EU countries: evolution and correlation with integration» has been prepared. This article confirms the scientific hypothesis of this research on the example of European Union.

vadim_ispr@mail.ru

Migration: censuses and estimates – Tuesday 10 September, 9.00am

How well is the impact of international migration measured between censuses
David Owen, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick

This is an era of sustained high net international migration to the UK. The social and economic impact of such large population flows is likely to be substantial but the measurement of migration flows is problematical. The 2011 Census revealed that international migration had been the major influence upon population change over the preceding ten years, but the effect of sudden increases in migration upon the resident population is even greater at the sub-national scale. Population growth was slower in Wales and Northern Ireland than in England, but their minority ethnic populations grew rapidly largely as a result of international migration between 2001 and 2011. It was important for national and local governments to know and about their numbers, location and needs. Unfortunately, the statistical information base on the growth of new populations and their characteristics was inadequate. This paper assesses how successful regular statistical surveys and administrative data sources were in identifying migration to each country, the changing ethnic composition of their populations and the socio-economic circumstances of new population groups. It presents the evidence on population change from a range of sources and compares it with Census data. The paper demonstrates the need for surveys to be boosted in order to accurately identify new population groups.

d.w.owen@warwick.ac.uk

Measuring population change in Scotland: how the Census sheds light on our success in capturing migration over the last ten years
Kylie Hill, National Records of Scotland

The ten-year interval between population censuses in Scotland leaves a large gap in our knowledge of population change over the decade. While births and deaths are registered centrally there is no such system to record migration – whether local, national or international. This talk looks at the difficulties of tracking population change in a highly mobile era and how this can lead to the differences seen between population estimates produced throughout the decade and the results published from Scotland’s 2011 Census. The first release of Scotland’s Census results in December 2012 showed a Scottish population 49,000 higher than that expected by rolling forward the data from 2001, suggesting that we may have undercounted the total net migration throughout the decade. The presentation will break down how aspects of our methodology and assumptions could have led to these discrepancies and how much of the difference can be attributed to migration from different sources, including international migration from the International Passenger Survey; the adjustments applied to these flows in different parts of the decade; and internal and cross-border migration from NHS Central Register and Community Health Index records. Of particular concern is the need to estimate migration flows for detailed subgroups and at sub-national level. Assessing the success of our methods in following changes since 2001 will allow us to rebase the time series, apportioning additional residents to the correct years and geographic areas, and improve our processes to produce better population estimates on an on-going basis.

kylie.hill@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Internal migration as a driver of inter-censal drift
Neil Park, Steve Smallwood, Mark Auckland, Office for National Statistics

The mis-measurement of internal migration in the mid-year estimates whilst often marginal for a single year provides a significant driver of drift in the mid-year estimates. Although issues may not appear large in one year they are compounded by identical issues in subsequent years. This presentation explains how deficiencies in the measurement of internal migration can lead to substantial inter-censal errors in local authority mid-year estimates and are the main driver of error in many local authority areas. The difference between the population base derived from the Census and the patient registers used to estimate internal migration is examined and the impact this has on the construction of the mid-year estimates is discussed. In particular features of the mid-year estimates related to the interaction of rebasing the mid-year estimates and long lags between real moves and the capture of those moves via internal migration are explained. It is considered whether differences between migration flows from the Census and derived by patient register can be used to predict the likely scope of errors in the MYEs. Finally a framework for understanding how all measurement issues related to the mid-year estimates interact together is proposed.

neil.park@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Migration: Impacts – Tuesday 10 September, 4.45pm

The Hazara and Afghan diaspora in the United Kingdom, continental Europe and Australia
Helen Ware, University of New England

On March 1st 2012, the United Kingdom Parliament debated the persecution of the Hazara community in Quetta, Pakistan - a concern shared by at least twenty MPs who support the cause of their Hazara constituents. Proportionately there would be more Hazaras in Australia than in the UK but anything like such a level of political influence in the Antipodes would be unthinkable. There are many advantages in studying an ethnic diaspora group in a number of different locations. For example, as in this paper, it is possible to examine the links between the size of an immigrant ethnic group and its political influence. Demographically, the Hazara diaspora are of particular interest because the statistics (drawn from censuses and national immigration data) reflect a clear strategy of protecting young men whilst establishing familial bridge-heads in the new location. Thus in Australia 62% of Hazaras are male and the median age is a remarkably low 22.4. However, recent data indicate that there is now also a new wave of secondary or tertiary movement of Hazaras who have experience of refugee life in Iran and Pakistan. This paper explores what the statistics show about the Hazara and Afghani diaspora in Australia, the UK and Continental Europe, demonstrating that both the claims of the diaspora themselves and of their host populations are often belied by the actual figures, especially once the distinction is made between Hazaras and the Afhani community as a whole. In the European context, differences are explored between the nature of these diasporas where their host countries have been engaged in the fighting in Afghanistn and those who have not been so engaged.

hware@une.edu.au

Location, location? A critical examination of patterns and determinants of internal mobility among post-accession Polish migrants in the UK
Paulina Trevena, Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton; Derek McGhee, Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton; Sue Heath, Morgan Centre for the Study of Relationships and Personal Life, University of Manchester

This paper adds to the debate on the divide between internal and international migration by investigating patterns of internal mobility following the international move of post-accession Polish migrants to the UK. Our analysis is based on a large-scale qualitative study carried out among 83 Polish migrants living in urban and rural locations in England and Scotland. We analyse the reasons behind their initial choice of location in the destination country, and the propensity for subsequent internal mobility after arriving in the UK. We consider the role of family characteristics, migration channels, and time in the spatial moves the migrants undertake. In our analysis we differentiate between residential mobility (which was generally very high among our study participants) and internal mobility (undertaken by one-third of our sample). Our research findings indicate that migrants who arrive through recruitment agencies and do not have children (with them in Britain) are the most internally mobile, while those who arrive through personal networks (of family, friends or acquaintances) and with (especially school-age) children are the least likely to relocate after arriving in the UK. Moreover, it appears that migrants with families are more willing to make urban to rural moves, while young and childless migrants favour rural to urban relocations. Notably, the internal migration of some of our (childless) study participants was sometimes interspersed with short-term return migration. Finally, the general propensity to move internally seems to decrease with time: once the migrants secure permanent employment and stable accommodation, they are less willing to uproot again.

p.m.trevena@soton.ac.uk

Cleaning and care work in France: the contributions and trajectories of migrant workers
Stephanie Condon, INED;  Emmanuelle Lada, INED

The care sector has become a highly profiled object of migration studies. At the same time, gerontologists have raised awareness of the needs of the dependant elderly in their homes, but other branches of the care sector (housecleaning, childcare) have been paid less attention by policy or population researchers. Recent migration research has focused on the people carrying out various caring tasks in the domestic sphere. Yet this has generated less interest for policy-makers than estimations of needs of care services or how costs can be covered. Informality has long been a characteristic of care work throughout the world; the informal legal status of many migrants carrying out these jobs is just another layer of the complexity of understanding the dynamics of the sector. A European research project coordinated by the ILO has been instrumental in foregrounding issues relating to the role and working conditions of migrants as caregivers. This paper will present results from the French case. Multiple methods have been used to gain an appreciation of the position of migrant workers in the care sector and data sources include Labour Force Survey data (2010), policy reports produced by various administrations or agencies, interviews with stakeholders (union representatives, government departments, NGOs) and practitioners, and a series of semi-structured interviews with migrants working in the sector. Migration and ethnicity, as well as gender, are keys to understanding many aspects of migrant workers’ trajectories within this section of the labour market, from recruitment and working conditions to training and mobility.

condon@ined.fr

Self-Employment of Immigrants: Understanding the country of origin effects
Berkay Ozcan, Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics; Serden Ozcan, Copenhagen Business School and Center for Entrepreneurship at CBS

A growing literature seeks answer to the question why immigrants from certain countries of origin are more entrepreneurial and whether entrepreneurship is culturally determined. Yet, focusing on the first-generation immigrants, this literature failed the thorny task of isolating the effect of institutional settings and macroeconomic conditions in origin countries from the “entrepreneurial culture”, and furthermore has found inconclusive results. We propose that comparing second-generation immigrants that are born in the U.S., lived under the same macroeconomic climate and institutional setting provides a way around this problem and alleviates the concerns about the immigrant selection. Using Current Population Survey (1994-2011), we analyse the mechanisms through which the entrepreneurial culture in the country where parents had originated from affects their children’s propensity to choose self-employment. Our preliminary result shows a significant negative correlation, which is robust to various specifications and fixed effects. Overall, our study offers insights about cultural transmission of self-employment across immigrant generations.

b.ozcan@lse.ac.uk

The migration-development nexus reconsidered: Trans-local perspectives on migration and local place making processes in Eastern Nepal
Jytte Agergaard and Ditte Rasmussen Broegger, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen

Geographical studies of migration, not least studies focusing on the Global South, have benefitted greatly from the theorization on transnational migration, diasporic practices and mobilities, and empirical studies of trans-local everyday practices and migrants’ positioning as “being in-between”. These insights have also stimulated governments, donors, NGOs and academics’ interest for how migrants’ transnational connections, in particular their individual and collective (economic) remittance practices, contribute to growth and well-being at home – referred to as the migration-development nexus. However, what seems to be less articulated in these theorizations and empirical analyses is how migration within national borders and trans-local everyday practices intersect with place-making. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to explore how migrants’ trans-local habitus may explain if and how migrants participate and are included in local place-making in their ‘home’ place. In this respect we draw on geographical theories of place and mobility and by using a trans-local lens we move beyond conventional approaches to the migration-development nexus. Our empirical analysis is based on a qualitative and multi-sited case study organized around a particular village community in Eastern Nepal and scrutinizes the relationship between different forms of multi-local lives of movers and stayers and how different actors articulate the role and importance of ‘home’.

ja@geo.ku.dk

Migration: younger children and adults – Wednesday 11 September, 11.00am

Migration transitions to higher educational institutions: Statistical modelling of the Student Record Data in the UK
Neil Bailey and Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton

Around two and half million people were attending an institute of higher education in the United Kingdom in the 2010/11 academic year, which equates to around 4.1% of the total population. Surprisingly, given the importance of higher education very little work has been conducted on the migratory patterns of students attending institutes of higher education in the UK. This paper develops on my previous paper, which put forward a typology that categorised the different migration transitions that a person can undertake in order to attend a higher educational institution. With the use of the Student Record Dataset of the Higher Education Statistics Agency, which contains detailed information on every student recorded as attending an institute of higher education in the UK, this paper uses a series of statistical models to gain an in-depth understanding of student migration in the UK. The first technique used in this paper is a spatial interaction model of the student transitions between local authorities (LA) where distance and origin /destination characteristic variables are used to add informative information to our model of the transitions undertaken by students in the UK. The second technique uses a multiple regression model to model the distance migrated by students in the UK against their individual characteristics (age, ethnicity, socio-economic status, parental education), the institute they attended and the course they studied. The results of this paper are still being developed but will be ready in time for the conference in September.

neil.bailey@soton.ac.uk

Spatial mobility trends in Sweden: An order-specific analysis of migration
Hill Kulu, University of Liverpool; Gunnar Malmberg, University of Umea; Emma Lundholm, University of Umea

The aim of this study is to investigate spatial mobility in Sweden over time and changes in mobility patterns by population subgroups. Most studies on internal migration focus on spatial redistribution of population and determinants of inter-regional migration flows; surprisingly little research has investigated the dynamics of spatial mobility in industrialised societies over time. The study of the dynamics of spatial mobility will deepen our understanding of how lives of individuals change over time and how changes in various domains of individuals’ lives interact with their spatial mobility. We expect our research to trigger a series of studies on other countries using the same methodology. We propose the methodology as follows: We will first calculate age controlled migration measures to investigate spatial mobility of Swedish population over the last four decades (from 1968 to 2009). We will then disaggregate mobility rates by calculating order-specific mobility rates (e.g. the age-specific mobility rate for ages 18-29 is the sum of the first, second and subsequent mobility rates). We will next standardise order-specific mobility rates for place of residence and for changes in other life domains of individuals (education, work, family) to find out how much changes in various life domains of individuals or couples explain the change in mobility levels over time. We will examine mobility rates over time by using different definitions of spatial mobility and migration. We will use register data to study spatial mobility of individuals aged 18 to 29; the data include information on the main life events of the research population including residential changes.

hill.kulu@liverpool.ac.uk

Migration intentions in post-Socialist countries
Ognjen Obucina, Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University

The aim of the paper is to explore the factors related to emigration from Central and Eastern European and the former Soviet Union countries. No information on actual migrations abroad are available, but the previous literature suggests that the forces that trigger migration intentions are also the same forces that make people actually move. Data are drawn from The Life in Transition survey II, which was conducted jointly by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank in late 2010. The dependent variable in the paper is intention to move abroad within 12 months following the survey. The multivariate analysis is modelled as mixed effects logistic regressions with a random intercept. This approach makes it possible to allow for and to explore between-country variance in migration intentions. The results indicate that the impact of crisis is positively associated with intention to leave the country within 12 months. The impact of the self-perceived social mobility is arguably very interesting: both upwardly mobile and downwardly mobile are more likely to express the intention to migrate as compared to those who stayed in the same status relative to the period four years before the survey. The respondents aged 20-35 are 33% more likely to migrate than the respondents aged 36-50 and are also more than twice as likely to migrate as those aged above 50. This result becomes especially relevant in the context of low fertility found in most countries under study: people of reproductive age are those who are most likely to leave the country.

ognjen.obucina@sociology.su.se

Contexts of migration across childhood: evidence from rural South Africa
Rachel Bennett, University of Southampton

Exposure to migration is an important yet unstudied indicator of children’s social and physical environments in many low and middle countries. In South Africa, migration to access caregivers and educational opportunities, support family households and accompany family members are commonplace childhood experiences. Existing studies have found evidence of positive and/or negative relationships between measures of migration and child wellbeing. However analyses and understanding of the patterns, triggers and experiences of children’s migration are limited. The aims of this paper are (i) to propose an approach to measuring children’s migration focused on relationship to co-movers, origin household structure and childhood stage and (ii) to present empirical results on the contexts of children’s migration in South Africa using longitudinal data from a demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The empirical work uses event history techniques to describe migration behaviour during infancy, preschool, middle childhood and adolescence, and to examine the relationships between propensity to migrate and individual and parental characteristics and life events, wider support networks, housing quality and household composition in relation to the migration typology. Key results include (i) strong relationships between measures of support networks and moves which do not involve the whole household, (ii) increasing relevance of paternal characteristics for propensity to migrate during later childhood stages, and (iii) the importance of individual characteristics and life events such as gender, childbirth and educational status for moves during the final childhood stage, adolescence. The paper contributes to efforts to conceptualise and measure children’s migration and documents the circumstances in which children migrate in rural South Africa.

rachel.bennett@soton.ac.uk

 

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